66 replies to this topic

[12SPX]

Sure wasn't hard to get an average short of 4400 for September now lol!! 

[dTraderB]

Closing last ES & NQ hedge LONGS

[dTraderB]

Newbie longs rushing in at or near top

Sure wasn't hard to get an average short of 4400 for September now lol!! 

[dTraderB]

An OPEX week like the good old DOT COM days with major BEAR capitulation.
Best NQ daytrade week but worst NET ACCOUNT week for 2023. Could also be a losing JUNE if this continues, first losing month of 2023.

[dTraderB]

BOFA: INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR SENTIMENT AT A 19-MONTH HIGH.

BOFA CITING EPFR DATA: WE SEE A BIG RALLY BEFORE BIG COLLAPSE BUT LATTER NOW NEEDS 6% TERMINAL FED FUNDS, REAL RATES TO 2% AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE >4%

An OPEX week like the good old DOT COM days with major BEAR capitulation.
Best NQ daytrade week but worst NET ACCOUNT week for 2023. Could also be a losing JUNE if this continues, first losing month of 2023.

[dTraderB]

Maybe market is wrong, but I trade the MARKET, not the FED who can print money but we cannot:

BARRON'S:
The Market Thinks the Fed Is Wrong. Why Thats Dangerous.
The market has made up its mind on the Federal Reserves view that two more rate hikes are needed. It just doesnt believe it.

There was a time, earlier in the cycle, when a hawkish surprise would have sent stocks sharply lower. The opposite has happened.

The S&P 500 closed higher for a sixth consecutive day Thursday, its longest winning streak since November 2021. Microsoft and Apple both finished at record highs as the Nasdaq Composite notched its highest close since April. The prospect of higher interest rates typically hurts high-growth tech stocks, given their valuations are driven by future earnings estimates.

But the market is actually celebrating what it sees as the imminent end of the Feds aggressive rate-hiking campaign.

Not trusting the central bank, investors have taken their own look at the data. They see an economy that is cooling. U.S. jobless claims stayed at 262,000 last week, a near-two year high. The inflation rate has fallen to 4% from a peak of 9.1% last June.

Markets may well think only one more rate hike is needed, but its still the Fed that will ultimately make that decision. Chairman Jerome Powell has a different interpretation of the data, as he says the central banks inflation fight has a long way to go.

Investors current jubilation will be all for nothing unless the Fed starts seeing things their way.

[dTraderB]

MISSING THE POINT: Trade the Markets, not the FED.

REUTERS:
Stocks vs the Fed

But while central bankers remain as worried about inflation as they have been since late 2021, markets seem to be worrying about nothing at all.



Wall Street's S&P 500 share index has rallied into a bull market, defined as a 20% gain from a recent low, and closed on Thursday at a 14 month high. MSCI's broad gauge of world stocks is on track for a 2.9% weekly gain.



The rally came despite Fed chair Jay Powell saying on Wednesday that the job market and growth were holding up better than expected, likely lengthening the central bank's fight against inflation that remains double its target.



Rather than hearing this cue, markets are listening selectively, focusing on the growth narrative while continuing to push back against hawkish guidance. Traders price in less than a 70% chance of another rate rise in July.



This approach suggests investors sorely need a new playbook. Many started the year convinced a savage recession, caused by rate rises, would crush equities and send cash flooding back into government bonds. With 10-year Treasury yields stuck around where they were in January and stocks rallying, anyone still trading that scenario will be struggling to convince their bosses they are right.



So fixed income portfolio managers are getting into growth trades in high yield bonds and emerging market debt. Equity investors are bidding up tech megacaps as they fawn over the productivity-boosting potential of artificial intelligence.



The market rally is also feeding on itself, pulling off the sidelines investors who were underweight equities previously.



Yet recession risks have not gone away.



Economists at Bank of America this week scrapped their prediction for a U.S. downturn this year. But they also warned, in a research note, that further Fed hikes could renew banking sector stress and spark a credit crunch, particularly harming the small businesses that contribute about 50% of U.S. employment.



Professional investors are caught in the unenviable position of either trading a narrative they may not quite believe or missing out on gains. A difficult summer lies ahead.

Maybe market is wrong, but I trade the MARKET, not the FED who can print money but we cannot:

BARRON'S:
The Market Thinks the Fed Is Wrong. Why Thats Dangerous.
The market has made up its mind on the Federal Reserves view that two more rate hikes are needed. It just doesnt believe it.

There was a time, earlier in the cycle, when a hawkish surprise would have sent stocks sharply lower. The opposite has happened.

The S&P 500 closed higher for a sixth consecutive day Thursday, its longest winning streak since November 2021. Microsoft and Apple both finished at record highs as the Nasdaq Composite notched its highest close since April. The prospect of higher interest rates typically hurts high-growth tech stocks, given their valuations are driven by future earnings estimates.

But the market is actually celebrating what it sees as the imminent end of the Feds aggressive rate-hiking campaign.

Not trusting the central bank, investors have taken their own look at the data. They see an economy that is cooling. U.S. jobless claims stayed at 262,000 last week, a near-two year high. The inflation rate has fallen to 4% from a peak of 9.1% last June.

Markets may well think only one more rate hike is needed, but its still the Fed that will ultimately make that decision. Chairman Jerome Powell has a different interpretation of the data, as he says the central banks inflation fight has a long way to go.

Investors current jubilation will be all for nothing unless the Fed starts seeing things their way.

[dTraderB]

SQQQ at historic LOWS below 19
Buying it, later will buy CALLS

Starting to close BABA LONG pisition, now above 94
Will close half above 93 & SELL CALLS later if above 95

Holdong ALL HANG SENG LONG, all SPY & QQQ PUTS, will roll some into SEPTEMBER. Rather roll it than STOPPED out

Holding all TLT CALLS, will close some above
106
UVXY actually up, HOLDING, will buy more, buy I prefer trading VXB at these levels

[linrom1]

Counting time to short this POS.

[linrom1]

...another POS that's going to 0.