83 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

HAPPY JULY 4! Will be monitoring US markets & trading if & when necessary, when markets are open, but more active in Asian markets.
Back to full US & OTHER trading from Tuesday 6pm.

This guy has been generally right but I think his ATH forecast is wrong!

"Given that the 2022 cyclical bear market was roughly "average" compared to all cyclical bear markets, perhaps we should be expecting a similar 1-year and 2-year rebound. That would imply an S&P 500 close of 4892.84 on October 13, 2023 and 5423.90 on October 13, 2024. To argue these numbers, you're fighting history.

Understanding history, and profiting from it, is super important in becoming and remaining a successful investor/trader. Many times, it's honestly nothing more than maintaining a healthy dose of perspective. On Thursday, July 6th, at 7pm ET, I'll be hosting our next "Bulls-Eye Forecast: Mid-Year Update" event. No one has forecast the S&P 500's future direction better than we have at EarningsBeats.com. I want you to join me. First, let me say that it's FREE. Second, I'll repeat that - it's FREE!!!! Is that not enough incentive?"

https://stockcharts....as-ver-452.html

[dTraderB]

Good luck on this one:
"Complacency Seems Overly Complacent

Market Review & Update

Despite the recent correction, complacency remains highly complacent.

Last week we noted that the correction had triggered a market sell signal. As stated, when triggered from relatively elevated levels, these sell signals suggest a more protracted correction or consolidation. However, the correction was shortlived as a successful test of the 20-day moving average brought traders back into the market. In a bullish advance, it is not uncommon for buy and sell signals to flip back and forth at elevated levels."

[dTraderB]

Is VIX significant now? Maybe, but an inexact tool:

"It is certainly possible the rise of 0DTE options may be contributing to the suppression of the volatility index, making it appear to be less effective near term. However, we wont know with certainty until the next volatility event arrives. Unfortunately, it could be too late for many investors to do much about risk management.

The risk from 0DTE (in our view) comes from a heavy imbalance (ex: too many non-hedgers short downside). We think a lot of 0DTE is one dynamic-hedger trading with another dynamic hedger, and/or underlying replacement (i.e., buy calls instead of long stock). SpotGamma
https://realinvestme...rly-complacent/

Good luck on this one:
"Complacency Seems Overly Complacent

Market Review & Update

Despite the recent correction, complacency remains highly complacent.

Last week we noted that the correction had triggered a market sell signal. As stated, when triggered from relatively elevated levels, these sell signals suggest a more protracted correction or consolidation. However, the correction was shortlived as a successful test of the 20-day moving average brought traders back into the market. In a bullish advance, it is not uncommon for buy and sell signals to flip back and forth at elevated levels."

[dTraderB]

Good report from SENTIMENT TRADER:

Key points:

The S&P 500 equal-weighted Industrials sector closed at a new all-time high on Tuesday
Industrials and the S&P 500 performed slightly better than average over the next year
Other cyclical sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary outperformed
Another bullish development for the Industrials sector

The S&P 500 Industrials recovery continued this week, culminating in a new all-time high for the equal-weighted index on Tuesday, making it the first large-cap index or sector to achieve this milestone.

With internal participation from industrial sector stocks on solid footing and now external price confirmation at the index level, the weight of the evidence for industrials looks favorable.

When cyclical sectors like Industrials are behaving well, more often than not, it's a bullish sign for the broad market.

https://mailchi.mp/s...86?e=b27dc45da1

[4caster]

"In a bullish advance it is not uncommon for buy and sell signals to flip back and

forth at elevated levels". Excellent point. On June 1st several indicators gave a

bottom signal, on June 16th several indicators gave a top signal and on June 25th

several indicators gave a bottom signal. As of Friday's close several indicators are

now at levels typically associated with a ST top.

[dTraderB]

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
S&P Global final U.S. manufacturing survey for June, equivalent reports from around the world
Treasury auctions 3 and 6-month bills

[redfoliage2]

Pre-earnings ramping up time in the next two weeks.   Thanks to the price inflation corporate earnings going to be robust  .....................

Edited by redfoliage2, 03 July 2023 - 12:10 PM.

[dTraderB]

S&P 500 Signals (@SPYSTSignals) tweeted at 7:43 PM on Mon, Jul 03, 2023:

$SPY 5 Day Risk Model implying pullback is imminent here (a bit at odds with my $VIX model), which is what I've been expecting post 7/4. I also don't think it will be much of a move nor will it last very long. Keep calm and vacation on.

https://t.co/pjJAO1cYOT

[dTraderB]

Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) tweeted at 0:52 PM on Mon, Jul 03, 2023:

Closing update #ES_F: Slow holiday session but good defense of 4485 support this AM.

We continue to bull flag & build energy all day for a leg higher with 4502, 4512+ first targets

[dTraderB]

How low the pullback drops?
ES 4400? 4350?
Will add hedge longs but prefer to be RISK ON now

"With U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen due in Beijing on Thursday, trade relations are tense - with China on Tuesday restricting exports of two key chipmaking metals and Washington reportedly banning Chinese firms from accessing cloud computing.



Despite a broad rally in developed market equities in the first half of the year, China's CSI300 index is down almost 6% in dollar terms for 2023 to date and lost 0.8% on Wednesday alone.



Hong Kong stocks dropped 1.6% and the Hang Seng's Mainland Bank index lost more than 3% in its worst day for eight months after Goldman Sachs downgraded ratings on some Chinese banks and raised questions about the whole sector.

Stuck between the dilemmas of the inflation hawks in the West and China's spluttering economy and likely renewed policy stimulus, the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday paused its interest rate hiking again for the second time this year - saying it wanted more time to assess the situation.



The Fed minutes out later will sketch out how close that is to the thinking in Washington. Going into the release, futures markets are 80% priced for another quarter-point policy rate rise to 5.5-5.75% this month and have 33 basis points of hikes pencilled in by November.

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Wednesday:
U.S. May factory orders
Federal Reserve releases minutes of its latest policy meeting
New York Fed President John Williams speaks