20 replies to this topic

[blustar]

New data suggests SPX 4594/95 by early Wednesday on a strong gap up. The 4 TD low looks to be a slight pull back on Wednesday (4-1) of about 20-25 pts then higher on a gap up Thursday and into a gap up Friday to possibly as high as 4637/38 SPX (CPI & PPI).

 

The "Balance of Waves Time Principle" is: "w" of [y] = 1 TD, "x" of [y] = 4 TD's, "y" of [y] = 6 TD's. 1+4 = 5 and is within 1 TD of [y]. [y] also subdivides 'w', 'x', 'y', which is a bearish count at this level. 'y' will be an a-b-c wave and is the third of a third so to speak.

 

We are working off an irregular Gann count of 8+3, so the next major low is August 21 [A] then [B] hi Aug 24, then Sept 6 [C] lo of {A}. {C} should arrive next March and should end the bear market somewhere around 1900 SPX (1809/2000 zone) by my reckoning.
 

 

 

Brad Gudgeon

Editor,

BluStar Market Insights

 

[pdx5]

 

[slupert]

We are getting some much needed downside today.. My personal thinking is if we get a touch of lower BB's in indexes before CPI, its a gift. (JMHO)

Edited by slupert, 08 August 2023 - 09:27 AM.

[slupert]

The 60% down by March, is quite a leap. I commend you for your commitment to your methodology.

[cycletimer]

Yesterday was most like.the final bounce before a big increase in volatility. Blu, you’re constantly changing your forecasts. I’m sticking to my LOW, in mid-August and I remain short in core positions and trade in and out of SQQQ, short term.

[slupert]

Yesterday was most like.the final bounce before a big increase in volatility. Blu, you’re constantly changing your forecasts. I’m sticking to my LOW, in mid-August and I remain short in core positions and trade in and out of SQQQ, short term.

Ver well could be. I see one ofJimbo's  people is going the other way on the CPI, due to supposed increases  from the Cleveland data. Im not so sure most of that isn't gas.. I wasn't expecting inflation to rise gain until September though. What I am going to look for on this down day is "lunch buyers" to see if there ar traders covribf before the CPI while the market is quit. (JMHO)

[blustar]

Irregular Bottoming Action in the Y Wave!

 

The [y] Wave = "w" July 31, then "x" August 3, then 'w' August 4, then a "Double Three" 'x' wave low that shows an x-y-z (x) x-y-z into yesterday, creating a triple irregular bottom! Now all that is left is 'y' of "y" of [y] which is a third of a third of a third and that launches into Thursday this week to above 4607 (4637/52?).

 

The CPI report no doubt will have influence for this quick rise. Any topping action on Friday would be irregular again IF it occurs. 

 

Two x-y-z's in a row are extremely bullish, while three irregular lows are even more extremely bearish. Bottom line is: the bears are going to have to cover their shorts. This rise will create a BIG Neg D!

 

Looking for the low 3900's SPX minimum by August 21.

 

Today sees Venus Rx sq. Uranus early on with Mercury trine Jupiter after the close which is bullish. This weekend on Sunday has Venus and the Sun conjunct (+/- 2 days) which is topping action. Wednesday next week has Mars trine Uranus = Topping ~ 3 to 4 TD 's = Thursday/Friday this week.
 

 

 

Brad Gudgeon

Editor,

BluStar Market Insights

 

[blustar]

Possible 100 Point SPX Drop Early Thursday on CPI, Just Like the October 13, 2022 Low! 

 

This equals two 5 month cycles, October 13 to March 13 and March 13 to August 10. A 2-month low would then be due on October 13. This then extends the rally (a-b-c) into Tuesday next week to new highs on the Dow 30 and failing on the SPX and QQQ. Next week, the Sun sq.'s Uranus on the 15th along with two short term sextiles:

 

Aug 15, 2023 1:09 AM Sun 22 Leo 09 semi-sextile Mars 22 Virgo 09

Aug 15, 2023 1:04 PM Mercury 19 Virgo 05 semi-sextile Venus 19 Leo 05

Aug 15, 2023 10:34 PM Sun 23 Leo 00 square Uranus 23 Taurus 00= Upward resistance, just like Sun sq. Jupiter on the 7th.

Aug 16, 2023 9:53 AM Mars 23 Virgo 01 trine Uranus 23 Taurus 01 = gap down. See August 1, Mars sq. Jupiter.

 

Venus Rx conj. the Sun August 13 is +/- 2 TD's for a turn.

 

This would place the [A] Wave Low on the Mercury Rx aspect 8/23, [B] on August 27 (8/28 Uranus Rx) and © on Sept 8. The 5 week retest would then be October 13!

Tonight sees Mercury in Virgo trine Jupiter in Taurus, which is a message for the stock market tomorrow morning. In a down trend, trines can be bearish. My guess is the CPI will be hotter than expected and we get a panic sell-off buy spike like Oct 13, 2022. Already, I am seeing many POS D's emerging just like back then. Difference here is it will be an a-b-c 3 TD spike and caput.

 

The market is making something I have not seen in years and that is an IMP or Irregular Megaphone Pattern! It is a part of an irregular topping pattern that is usually seen in bull markets, but here the irregular top makes the final high.

 

I have maintained for sometime that we have NOT seen the top just yet, and stay by that conviction!

 

The Dow 30 could easily make a new high next week. The XMI has already made a new high. The SPX could reach 4700.

 

Tomorrow has support between 4385/89. 

 

Brad Gudgeon

Editor,

BluStar Market Insights

Edited by blustar, 09 August 2023 - 01:23 PM.

[blustar]

Yesterday was most like.the final bounce before a big increase in volatility. Blu, you’re constantly changing your forecasts. I’m sticking to my LOW, in mid-August and I remain short in core positions and trade in and out of SQQQ, short term.

IF you don't change your forecasts you can get married to them. I'm about making money, not always being right. I still don't see the top yet and believe now it will be August 15.

Edited by blustar, 09 August 2023 - 01:26 PM.

[cycletimer]

 

Yesterday was most like.the final bounce before a big increase in volatility. Blu, you’re constantly changing your forecasts. I’m sticking to my LOW, in mid-August and I remain short in core positions and trade in and out of SQQQ, short term.

IF you don't change your forecasts you can get married to them. I'm about making money, not always being right. I still don't see the top yet and believe now it will be August 15.

 

I still believe we see a LOW in Mid August, but there is a cycle turn on Aug 24th (+ or - 1 day) so a selloff could stretch out till then, followed a bounce into mid-September, for a lower high.