20 replies to this topic

[blustar]

From the late June (26th) low to the July 19 high was 16 TD's and from there until today is 16 TD's. I think that counts A then B and waiting for C next Tuesday above the 4607 level (4637?). I think we need to cover the gap at 4439 today, so the gap up today will likely be sold, IMO. We'll see.

 

This is still an IMP and with somewhat of a running correction look to it.

 

Forecasting the market is not always about being right, but about dealing with the cards you are dealt and utilizing proper money management.

 

Brad Gudgeon

Editor,

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[blustar]

Ideally, today is the 10 week, 21/17/15 = 53 TD low at day's end. IF this is a running correction, we may be able to support the 4448/51 SPX level at day's end. The B Bands are suggesting a minimum of 4622 by Tuesday next week.

[blustar]

 

 

Yesterday was most like.the final bounce before a big increase in volatility. Blu, you’re constantly changing your forecasts. I’m sticking to my LOW, in mid-August and I remain short in core positions and trade in and out of SQQQ, short term.

IF you don't change your forecasts you can get married to them. I'm about making money, not always being right. I still don't see the top yet and believe now it will be August 15.

 

I still believe we see a LOW in Mid August, but there is a cycle turn on Aug 24th (+ or - 1 day) so a selloff could stretch out till then, followed a bounce into mid-September, for a lower high.  

 

Ideally if August 15 is the top then I would think August 23rd is the A Wave Low as it is Mercury Rx. Meanwhile I believe that today marks an important low

[cycletimer]

I disagree Blu. The TOP of this entire move occurred on July 27th. It will trade in a support/resistance range with lower highs until support is finally broken which may occur this afternoon. Next two weeks should be down, possibly 4300. Though I trade my cycle dates… Aug 11, Aug 17 and Aug 24 could all be lows and they’ll be lower lows. I remain short via HDGE & SDS.
All this wave count stuff and short term top & bottoms calls is brain damage. The antithesis of this style is to catch 3-4 good moves per year. It’s more profitable and less stressful. I’ll be out of these positions within the next two weeks. Next move for me will be purchasing. Precious metals stocks and SIL. THERES A CYCLE HIGH IN METALS, DUE IN NOV. !!!

[blustar]

Buying this low with both hands. My target  Monday  is 4504 SPX. My target for August 16/17 is 4637/43. Aug 11 lo, Aug 17 hi, Aug 25 low. I see a high next week

Edited by blustar, 11 August 2023 - 08:59 AM.

[blustar]

I disagree Blu. The TOP of this entire move occurred on July 27th. It will trade in a support/resistance range with lower highs until support is finally broken which may occur this afternoon. Next two weeks should be down, possibly 4300. Though I trade my cycle dates… Aug 11, Aug 17 and Aug 24 could all be lows and they’ll be lower lows. I remain short via HDGE & SDS.
All this wave count stuff and short term top & bottoms calls is brain damage. The antithesis of this style is to catch 3-4 good moves per year. It’s more profitable and less stressful. I’ll be out of these positions within the next two weeks. Next move for me will be purchasing. Precious metals stocks and SIL. THERES A CYCLE HIGH IN METALS, DUE IN NOV. !!!

The SPX is making a powerful running correction. A powerful move back up into the low to mid 4600's is coming, then you get your sell-off.

[hhh]

Isn't a running correction supposed to work higher in an uptrend? We seem to be working lower.

[blustar]

Technically we are in an uptrend from the October low. A running correction has to be in the 4th or B wave position, that is the final wave, either 5 or C up comes after and it is over.

Edited by blustar, 11 August 2023 - 09:59 AM.

[hhh]

I guess that depends on where you choose wave-3 to have ended. 

[cycletimer]

I guess that depends on where you choose wave-3 to have ended.

E-wave is so subjective.if you had a venue with 50 Elliott wave analysts ina room, showed them a chart of any market, let’s say the Dow, you’d have 50 separate wave counts. I do agree with A-B-C counts but all this 5 wave this and that, is poppy-cock in my opinion.