Cycletimer called this low for 8/18. He needs some accolades and I for one can learn from him. Bravo!
Now onto my latest report:
How we test this low will likely determine the next rally. We at a 21/59/100 TD low, which is maximum. It is also a 10/20/40 week low. We are also at an extreme of the 9 month low, which can range from 38/44 weeks. I have identified two 22 week cycle here.
There are two lows, which match this low: The March 13th and May 24th lows. Both suggest a 16 TD rally into Sept 12 that should take the SPX up into the upper 4600's to low 4700's SPX. We have broken a rising wedge and the next expectation is a rise back inside the APEX of that wedge.
Carolan's new moon low in October expects a crash low into October 13, the anniversary of last year's low. According to my read, Sept 12 - October 6th should be the hardest core of that drop that could take the SPX down harder than we might expected as we approach the Mars/Pluto sq. on the 8th of Oct (a Sunday).
They are buying the bonds today, which is a good sign for a rally.
This decline is NOT impulsive and not the beginning of a bear market despite hedge fund manager Michael Blurry's purchase of over $1 billion worth of puts. Blurry was famous for calling the 2008/09 meltdown. He will be right, but I believe he is early. We need the weekly indicators to create a negative divergence first. Back in 2008, the crash began in earnest around the middle of Sept. I believe we are in that same cycle that should be worse this time around. I'm looking for a final low on the new moon of April 8th, 2024 that could take us down to the low 1800 SPX level.
Edited by blustar, 18 August 2023 - 08:38 AM.