115 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

 

Fresh data indicating inflation still holding up - CPI MOM went up 1% from previous 0%; core CPI went up 0.3% from previous 0.2%.  I'd expect hawkish words from the Fed tomorrow.  Time to take profit today ...................

The data just tell you prices have not gone down till it becomes negative, and the inflation is still going up.  That's what we see the prices in the stores still staying high or even higher.  The Fed will have to keep the Fed rate at the current level if not higher for much longer than many expecting .......................

 

BTW, the bull-run since the end of October fueled by this front-running the Fed has completed its exponential phase.  A correction is due when the truth is told.  The current marekt is only good for day trading ................................ 

Edited by redfoliage2, 12 December 2023 - 11:28 AM.

[dTraderB]

Closed 2 LONG BRENT 73.29
Will reopen below 72.65

NEW BRENT OIL LONG $73.85
Will add below 73.10

[dTraderB]

Added A50 & HSI LONG
Chinese "State" buyers saved their markets twice recently, even publicly saying so the 2nd time.
Want to on their side because the have openly let everyone know their intentions.
Some traders are selling during the early US session and then buying later.
I am also doing that...

[dTraderB]

Would like to add SPY & QQQ PUTS at about ES 4710 ... but may not get there today.
SPY 465 & QQQ 400 are approximate levels. Will buy options @ market at or near these levels, but preferably at or higher than ES 4710

Amazing! Spent too much time watching SPY & QQQ option screens yesterday. Was tempted to add more PUTS or SELL CALLS but decided to wait until the next major resistance at 4710.

Wow can't believe daily call option prices, no one is thinking the market could actually move lower....

[12SPX]

Have to round everything up with my ndx short now at 16300 ES 4660, let that sit for the meeting tomorrow....

[dTraderB]

POWELL will kick this can down the road to 2024.
"Powell pivot?
Some investors are hoping Christmas comes early in the form of a Fed pivot, and Wall Street on Tuesday notched fresh 2023 highs.



It's up to Powell then to convince markets - or not - that it is "premature to conclude" that the Fed's job is done.



Market pricing shows a 75% chance of a cut in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool, and analysts at Goldman Sachs over the weekend brought forward their forecast of a first cut to the third quarter of next year from the fourth quarter previously"

[dTraderB]

"As Wall St waited optimistically for the Federal Reserve's latest nods and winks on future policy, Argentina took a hatchet to its peso while China's stocks resumed sliding after another underwhelming government economic plan.

Producer price inflation data due on Wednesday before the Fed decision should prove more benign - with core annual PPI expected to fall to just 2.2%, its lowest in almost three years and below rates recorded for most of the two years before the pandemic hit.



Underscoring the disinflation in input costs, U.S. crude oil prices fell again on Tuesday to their lowest since June - down almost 30% in just 10 weeks and clocking year-on-year declines still close to 10%.



All of which has stock and bond markets bulled up again into the Fed meeting."

[dTraderB]

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Wednesday:
Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee decides policy and publishes latest quarterly economic projections; press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell
U.S. Nov producer price index
U.S. corporate earnings: Adobe, Nordson

"As Wall St waited optimistically for the Federal Reserve's latest nods and winks on future policy, Argentina took a hatchet to its peso while China's stocks resumed sliding after another underwhelming government economic plan.

Producer price inflation data due on Wednesday before the Fed decision should prove more benign - with core annual PPI expected to fall to just 2.2%, its lowest in almost three years and below rates recorded for most of the two years before the pandemic hit.



Underscoring the disinflation in input costs, U.S. crude oil prices fell again on Tuesday to their lowest since June - down almost 30% in just 10 weeks and clocking year-on-year declines still close to 10%.



All of which has stock and bond markets bulled up again into the Fed meeting."

[dTraderB]

Finally, got this done. Added 5 each SPY & QQQ PUTS.
ES backed off 4710 but will revisit later

Will open new NQ HEDGE LONG sometime today
Will again add A50 & HDI LONGS during US session & close during ASIAN session

Would like to add SPY & QQQ PUTS at about ES 4710 ... but may not get there today.
SPY 465 & QQQ 400 are approximate levels. Will buy options @ market at or near these levels, but preferably at or higher than ES 4710

Amazing! Spent too much time watching SPY & QQQ option screens yesterday. Was tempted to add more PUTS or SELL CALLS but decided to wait until the next major resistance at 4710.

Wow can't believe daily call option prices, no one is thinking the market could actually move lower....

[steadyquest]

OT - silver  (15 min)

 

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