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4 Year Cycle Adjustment

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#1 blustar

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Posted 01 February 2024 - 08:56 AM

Feb 2 is the LQ phase of the moon. The moon > into Capricorn (often a low) on the 6th where the 21 TD low should occur on the SPX. Feb 2/5-6 = C if my perception is correct.

 

The 4 year cycle seems to be moving 2 TD's ahead and bears watching.

 

Bottom Line: A period of congestion should occur after today's bounce (down then up?), which should be counter trend into Friday (or Monday? 3-4 TD's).

 

A ~4% correction is still expected by early next week.

 

The moon in Scorpio is highlighted on Friday. This should affect the Biden Admin and investigations into corruption.

 

 

 

 


Blessings,

 

blu

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#2 q4wer

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Posted 01 February 2024 - 09:55 AM

today basing.   Friday  a pop and drop  



#3 12SPX

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Posted 01 February 2024 - 10:20 AM

Hate it when planets shift to change things guess that commercial adding another hour every day is true bahaha!!!



#4 cycletimer

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Posted 01 February 2024 - 11:57 AM

today basing.   Friday  a pop and drop

That scenario of yours could c9 e a day early. We could definitely drop again this afternoon. FWIW, I have a tradable intraday cycle turn/pivot at 13:10-13:15 est today. Worth watching. Whatever market is doing into that pivot, I take the opposite on the trade.buy puts on a trending rally or calls on decline into that time.

Edited by cycletimer, 01 February 2024 - 11:57 AM.


#5 Douglas

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Posted 01 February 2024 - 12:33 PM

Brad, what manifestation of the four year cycle are you referring to?  Do you have a plot of turns?  If not, when were the last couple of turns?  As a certified cycle junky, I'm always interested in the take of others on the cycles they track and their turns.  I assume you are referring to the 4 year top cycle.

 

The version of the 4 year top cycle that I follow is crudely shown by yellow blobs on the plot below with the next top turn expected sometime in 2025.   The red arrowheads show the 4 year bottom cycle that I track with lows occurring roughly during the off-year election cycle with the last turn this past 2022.  The top turn intervals are a lot more irregular than the lows which I attribute to the fact that fear is a stronger emotion than greed.  

 

FJSxPOU.png

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 01 February 2024 - 12:38 PM.


#6 q4wer

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Posted 01 February 2024 - 12:42 PM

 

today basing.   Friday  a pop and drop

That scenario of yours could c9 e a day early. We could definitely drop again this afternoon. FWIW, I have a tradable intraday cycle turn/pivot at 13:10-13:15 est today. Worth watching. Whatever market is doing into that pivot, I take the opposite on the trade.buy puts on a trending rally or calls on decline into that time.

 

Interesting !     SPX today has a lot of put volume on 4890, and tomorrow a lot of put at 5000, so I bet tomorrow it is going to be bullish in the morning session as minimum.   I hope market can give a low today to load some calls.



#7 cycletimer

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Posted 01 February 2024 - 01:33 PM

today basing.   Friday  a pop and drop

That scenario of yours could c9 e a day early. We could definitely drop again this afternoon. FWIW, I have a tradable intraday cycle turn/pivot at 13:10-13:15 est today. Worth watching. Whatever market is doing into that pivot, I take the opposite on the trade.buy puts on a trending rally or calls on decline into that time.

Interesting !     SPX today has a lot of put volume on 4890, and tomorrow a lot of put at 5000, so I bet tomorrow it is going to be bullish in the morning session as minimum.   I hope market can give a low today to load some calls.

Puts at 5000 level? What month? I didn’t buy puts. I took a lower risk approach by selling an SOX call credit spread, expiring tomorrow. I did the 4925/4950 spread, which as long as we hover around here and especially below 4900 it’ll be golden. It must close out the week below 4925.

#8 q4wer

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Posted 01 February 2024 - 02:35 PM

 

 

 

today basing.   Friday  a pop and drop

That scenario of yours could c9 e a day early. We could definitely drop again this afternoon. FWIW, I have a tradable intraday cycle turn/pivot at 13:10-13:15 est today. Worth watching. Whatever market is doing into that pivot, I take the opposite on the trade.buy puts on a trending rally or calls on decline into that time.

Interesting !     SPX today has a lot of put volume on 4890, and tomorrow a lot of put at 5000, so I bet tomorrow it is going to be bullish in the morning session as minimum.   I hope market can give a low today to load some calls.

Puts at 5000 level? What month? I didn’t buy puts. I took a lower risk approach by selling an SOX call credit spread, expiring tomorrow. I did the 4925/4950 spread, which as long as we hover around here and especially below 4900 it’ll be golden. It must close out the week below 4925.

 

I am actually experienced in selling spx options,  the risk could be very very high if market goes against.  For tomorrow,  market has a chance to shot higher in my view.  to be safe, I would not short call spreads for tomorrow expiating options,   tomorrow morning we have employment report, it is a market mover.  we can hit 4930, tomorrow,  



#9 q4wer

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Posted 01 February 2024 - 02:37 PM

tomorrow expiration spx at 5000, we have 8K option interest.   we won't hit 5000, but market will try to move toward north.

 

be careful, my friends


Edited by q4wer, 01 February 2024 - 02:38 PM.


#10 q4wer

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Posted 01 February 2024 - 05:21 PM

after hour,  it is all time high already.   







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