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AI BUBBLE bigger than DOTCOM: S&P 500 could reach 5,350-5,400 by end of 2024,


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 11 February 2024 - 05:39 PM

Certainly it is more resilient & could last much longer than the DOT COM BUBBLE. There will be sharp pullbacks but only major geopolitical events could prevent minimum SPX 5400 target by end of year.

FS Insight Snapshot What's Next After Breaking 5,000:
Lunar New Year was Saturday, as the Year of the Dragon commenced. Historically, the Year of the Dragon has been the second-strongest of the years on the 12-animal cycle for the S&P 500, with an average return of 12.0%, a median of 12.7%, and a win ratio of 75%. Only the Year of the Rabbit, which we just exited, has a stronger history for the S&P 500. As Lee pointed out, a median 12.7% in Dragon years implies that the S&P 500 could reach 5,350-5,400 by the end of the year, an upside to his 5,200 base case. 恭喜發財 Gung Xi Fa Cai!

#2 dTraderB

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Posted 11 February 2024 - 05:44 PM

While there will be retracement I have started cutting SHORT positions, daytrading ES & NQ HEDGE LONGS, more aggressive trading CHINESE & HSI LONGS, and basically gradually shifting to LONG. However, I still expect at least a 7 to 10% drop to about SPX 4400 before the next big leg up.


FUNDSTRAT; "The S&P 500 momentarily broke 5,000 for the first time on Thursday (5,000.40, to be precise) before breaching that level more assertively on Friday to close above the 5,000 threshold for the first time. In the near term, Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee is more interested in how equities behave after reaching 5,000 in the near term, he told us. In the longer view, however, he said, This is only a round number, and it does not bear true significance, he said.

Aside from the S&P 500, Nasdaq and the Russell 3000 are also in new all-time high territories, as Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton pointed out in our weekly huddle. A lot of people like to make excuses as to markets having thin breadth, which is true this rally has largely been carried by only a few stocks. But its still very, very difficult to fade markets when they are at new highs, he said.

Adding to Newtons brightening view of the market, There are now other sectors starting to reignite and hit new highs. One example? Healthcare is the second largest sector within the S&P, and it is now back into all-time high territory after almost a two-year period of sideways chop, so this certainly is a bullish sign and one reason why I went to Overweight on Healthcare, joining Tom at least for now. In fact, Newton suggested, if youre looking to diversify outside of Technology, Healthcare and Industrials would be my picks both sectors look phenomenal.

We passed the midpoint of earnings season this week, and thus far, Lee sees it as being stronger than it looks. In fact, he describes it as being very strong. He acknowledges that the increase in earnings estimates is more modest than it has been over the past 15 years (S&P 500 4Q23 EPS is tracking towards $54.00, up +0.70% from the beginning of 2023). However, this figure was blunted by the impact on large banks earnings after they were assessed a one-time $23 billion fee by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to cover the costs of the 2023 regional bank bailout. Excluding Financials, EPS is tracking 3.6% higher than it was at the beginning of the year, Lees team found above the 3.2% long-term average."

#3 dTraderB

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Posted 11 February 2024 - 05:46 PM

Tom Lee, CFAAC Head of Research:
The equity market is stronger in 2024 than in 2023 so 5,000 on S&P 500 SPY 0.58% should mean little this has been the level we have watched for a near term peak"

https://x.com/cnbccl...UDeJ6GX8T2qbNkw

While there will be retracement I have started cutting SHORT positions, daytrading ES & NQ HEDGE LONGS, more aggressive trading CHINESE & HSI LONGS, and basically gradually shifting to LONG. However, I still expect at least a 7 to 10% drop to about SPX 4400 before the next big leg up.


FUNDSTRAT; "The S&P 500 momentarily broke 5,000 for the first time on Thursday (5,000.40, to be precise) before breaching that level more assertively on Friday to close above the 5,000 threshold for the first time. In the near term, Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee is more interested in how equities behave after reaching 5,000 in the near term, he told us. In the longer view, however, he said, This is only a round number, and it does not bear true significance, he said.

Aside from the S&P 500, Nasdaq and the Russell 3000 are also in new all-time high territories, as Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton pointed out in our weekly huddle. A lot of people like to make excuses as to markets having thin breadth, which is true this rally has largely been carried by only a few stocks. But its still very, very difficult to fade markets when they are at new highs, he said.

Adding to Newtons brightening view of the market, There are now other sectors starting to reignite and hit new highs. One example? Healthcare is the second largest sector within the S&P, and it is now back into all-time high territory after almost a two-year period of sideways chop, so this certainly is a bullish sign and one reason why I went to Overweight on Healthcare, joining Tom at least for now. In fact, Newton suggested, if youre looking to diversify outside of Technology, Healthcare and Industrials would be my picks both sectors look phenomenal.

We passed the midpoint of earnings season this week, and thus far, Lee sees it as being stronger than it looks. In fact, he describes it as being very strong. He acknowledges that the increase in earnings estimates is more modest than it has been over the past 15 years (S&P 500 4Q23 EPS is tracking towards $54.00, up +0.70% from the beginning of 2023). However, this figure was blunted by the impact on large banks earnings after they were assessed a one-time $23 billion fee by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to cover the costs of the 2023 regional bank bailout. Excluding Financials, EPS is tracking 3.6% higher than it was at the beginning of the year, Lees team found above the 3.2% long-term average."



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 11 February 2024 - 05:46 PM

Key Data this week:
2/13 8:30am ET January CPI
2/14 PPI Revisions
2/15 8:30am ET February Empire Manufacturing Survey
2/15 8:30am ET February Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey
2/15 8:30am ET January Retail Sales Data
2/15 10am EST February NAHB Housing Market Index
2/16 8:30am ET January PPI
2/16 8:30am ET February New York Fed Business Activity Survey
2/16 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation February Prelim

#5 dTraderB

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Posted 11 February 2024 - 05:52 PM

54-46 bullish poll

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 2:02 PM on Sat, Feb 10, 2024:
The results are in and folks lean bullishly this week. That is the bullish side 3 of the last 4 weeks.

Thanks for voting! https://t.co/WjTZM9f8OM
(https://x.com/hmeisl...0201129249?s=03)

#6 dTraderB

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Posted 12 February 2024 - 07:15 AM

Interesting:
https://youtu.be/_mD...?feature=shared


We are thrilled to unveil Sentimentrader's latest innovation: the Correlation Pattern Match solution. This user-friendly tool gives investors and traders unparalleled insights into historical price pattern analogs for indexes, ETFs, stocks, and commodities. By allowing users to define specific dates and correlation percentage levels, the Correlation Pattern Match tool takes data analysis to new heights, enabling you to make informed decisions and stay ahead of market trends.

https://mailchi.mp/s...ut?e=b27dc45da1

#7 dTraderB

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Posted 12 February 2024 - 07:18 AM

Most technical warnings since 2021 as S&P stocks lose their uptrends
Key points:

Technical warnings on the Nasdaq have spiked over the past 3 weeks, rising to the most since December 2021
When warnings were this numerous, the Nasdaq Composite had difficulty holding upside momentum
Even within the S&P 500, participation has waned to a worrying degree

https://mailchi.mp/s...ut?e=b27dc45da1


Interesting:
https://youtu.be/_mD...?feature=shared


We are thrilled to unveil Sentimentrader's latest innovation: the Correlation Pattern Match solution. This user-friendly tool gives investors and traders unparalleled insights into historical price pattern analogs for indexes, ETFs, stocks, and commodities. By allowing users to define specific dates and correlation percentage levels, the Correlation Pattern Match tool takes data analysis to new heights, enabling you to make informed decisions and stay ahead of market trends.

https://mailchi.mp/s...ut?e=b27dc45da1



#8 redfoliage2

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Posted 12 February 2024 - 08:53 AM

So, SPX 5100 is doable by nhe end of the week (Jan. monthly OpEx) if tomorrow's CPI data follow the CPI data adjustments by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released last Friday  ......................


Edited by redfoliage2, 12 February 2024 - 09:01 AM.


#9 redfoliage2

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Posted 12 February 2024 - 11:08 AM

So, SPX 5100 is doable by nhe end of the week (Jan. monthly OpEx) if tomorrow's CPI data follow the CPI data adjustments by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released last Friday  ......................

But if the Feb monthly data do not follow to go lower, instead going higher then I see the market will put back.  It's possible the Feb month CPI may not follow the adjustment at all. since the CPI adjustment by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics last Friday was for the data from months of last year.  I'd be prepared and let's wait and see ........................


Edited by redfoliage2, 12 February 2024 - 11:18 AM.


#10 redfoliage2

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Posted 12 February 2024 - 11:49 AM

 

So, SPX 5100 is doable by nhe end of the week (Jan. monthly OpEx) if tomorrow's CPI data follow the CPI data adjustments by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released last Friday  ......................

But if the Feb monthly data do not follow to go lower, instead going higher then I see the market will put back.  It's possible the Feb month CPI may not follow the adjustment at all. since the CPI adjustment by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics last Friday was for the data from months of last year.  I'd be prepared and let's wait and see ........................

 

The Feb CPI may be higher as the Red Sea conflict has been blocking shippments causing shipping costs going higher   .......................


Edited by redfoliage2, 12 February 2024 - 11:58 AM.