Jump to content



Photo

AI BUBBLE bigger than DOTCOM: S&P 500 could reach 5,350-5,400 by end of 2024,


  • Please log in to reply
176 replies to this topic

#11 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 18,501 posts

Posted 12 February 2024 - 12:12 PM

Closed 2 A50 LONG
Will add below 11450

#12 12SPX

12SPX

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 13,051 posts

Posted 12 February 2024 - 12:18 PM

Good morning, I'm back from Mexico.  Sayullita is a nice little town above PV.  The most interesting thing however is that prices there and around the area are the same or even higher than Hawai or Vegas.  Problem,,,,,it is still Mexico and there were a few days of sickness from food and or water virus's so I think it is ridiculous they are trying to charge that but his seems to be a world wide thing!!! 

 

Back to the market though.  Didn't really do any trading but just watched the market continue to rise on this majorly  over inflated rally.  I love rallies but this one is now right up there with 2000, 2007 and 2020 overall and  we haven't even seen a -2% daily correction I believe since the start of the year and that is really not normal.  No one knows when it will end but there is always some type of trigger and down she goes hard where a -5 to -10% correction will occur very fast and then back up likely.  Right now calls are sooooooo expensive its ridiculous so I've already started to sell March as my expiration cycle numbers are indicating some big volatility coming our way and even this cycles numbers are starting to get very close that end this Friday...  Adding to my short here giving me an average now of 4955 and 17645 but with my vacation teaching me life is way easier and fun selling options I am getting tired of trading once again as I always go through cycles so I'm going to sit on them and see how it all turns out by the end of the March expiration cycle on the 15th....



#13 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 18,501 posts

Posted 12 February 2024 - 01:40 PM

NQ 18OO1 LONG

#14 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 18,501 posts

Posted 12 February 2024 - 01:43 PM

Welcome back.... to the AI BUBBLE!

Not calling a TOP as yet but it is forming a TOP... and as you know these BUBBLE TOPS are
Unpredictable.

Good morning, I'm back from Mexico.  Sayullita is a nice little town above PV.  The most interesting thing however is that prices there and around the area are the same or even higher than Hawai or Vegas.  Problem,,,,,it is still Mexico and there were a few days of sickness from food and or water virus's so I think it is ridiculous they are trying to charge that but his seems to be a world wide thing!!! 
 
Back to the market though.  Didn't really do any trading but just watched the market continue to rise on this majorly  over inflated rally.  I love rallies but this one is now right up there with 2000, 2007 and 2020 overall and  we haven't even seen a -2% daily correction I believe since the start of the year and that is really not normal.  No one knows when it will end but there is always some type of trigger and down she goes hard where a -5 to -10% correction will occur very fast and then back up likely.  Right now calls are sooooooo expensive its ridiculous so I've already started to sell March as my expiration cycle numbers are indicating some big volatility coming our way and even this cycles numbers are starting to get very close that end this Friday...  Adding to my short here giving me an average now of 4955 and 17645 but with my vacation teaching me life is way easier and fun selling options I am getting tired of trading once again as I always go through cycles so I'm going to sit on them and see how it all turns out by the end of the March expiration cycle on the 15th....



#15 12SPX

12SPX

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 13,051 posts

Posted 12 February 2024 - 02:02 PM

Yup that's why I decided to place trades and sit as we approach the end of this expiration cycle.  I base all my trades on those numbers, final ones when I get my exact calculations next weekend but by the looks of it will at least see an up cycle so my numbers put the next cycle down with very strong odds and with seasonality, the market so overbought, call options screaming bullish, sentiment at extremes, valuations through the moon, Lance Roberts reminding us that the last time we saw 14 out of 15 weeks up was in 1972 with the then "nifty 50" and that established the next bear market for 1973,74, I think the odds for a down cycle are extremely high....  At the least I would think we'll at least see some kinda volatility to start.....



#16 linrom1

linrom1

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,119 posts

Posted 12 February 2024 - 03:04 PM

VIX is taking off?



#17 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 18,501 posts

Posted 13 February 2024 - 07:07 AM

NQ 17810 LONG

NQ 18OO1 LONG



#18 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 18,501 posts

Posted 13 February 2024 - 08:27 AM

Will add hedge lings below ES 5K & NQ 17700

NQ 17810 LONG

NQ 18OO1 LONG



#19 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 18,501 posts

Posted 13 February 2024 - 08:32 AM


4990
17690

Will add hedge lings below ES 5K & NQ 17700

NQ 17810 LONG

NQ 18OO1 LONG



#20 12SPX

12SPX

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 13,051 posts

Posted 13 February 2024 - 09:10 AM

Well isn't that funny.  Kind of appearing like I was right yesterday about everything I was talking about.  When the market is pricing for perfection and actually believes that the Fed and government know what they''re doing,,,,, boom ndx down over -300 points, ES -60 points.  I was starting to think yesterday that maybe stocks and bonds have gotten back to their old ways as a 4.19% bond would have seen the ES around 4600 last year but has been ignored the past month and a half.  Guess in the end traders should have "payed" more attention to it lol.  I am willing to bet that the market will finally believe that we will only see maybe 3 rate cuts in the end but just as they were slow to raise I think they'll miss the slowdown to lower unless of course the market really tanks lol!!  Reality is important otherwise this is what happens, best news is I'm covering my sold 5000 Feb calls for profits this morning and my sold calls from yesterday have already lost half their value for March.  Here comes the volatility I talked about and should be an interesting day in the end....