41 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

iloli way, now that you've got the bear party started, how about some trend lines in the downward direction.  Please see the green line with three touches and the dark blue inside trend line which is being tested today on the plot below.  I will give up my bearish bent if the green line is broken to the upside, and I expect an acceleration lower if the dark blue line is broken to the downside.  Crusty old foul tempered creature that I am, I'm betting on the dark blue line breaking first.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[iloli way]

Bulls somehow carving out a BULL FLAG so obviousely...

... by then, we would know if the mentioned BULL FLAG is only a new DOWN CHANNEL.  

 

 

I will give up my bearish bent if the green line is broken to the upside, and I expect an acceleration lower if the dark blue line is broken to the downside.

 

Dauglas, I think you have said it, better than I did. The very best I feel is FINALLY someone on this board can finally follow and anticipate my LOL! Thank you for your interest and contribution. It means A LOT to another crusty old chap running his last few laps...Hahahah LOL!

 

The potential BULL FLAG, similar to what you have - which I used to call it "my best friend" - a descending wedge/bull flag, once it breaks out the top line could be another NEW ATHs! (Bright Blue arrow)

 

Of course the strategy: Bears are easy in defending their positions: the RISING WEDGE, the BRIGHT BLUE LINE, and the ORANGE LINE had been FALLEN OUT - cover shorts when these lines are taken back! - adding shorts when theses lines are rejected once again!

 

So here we are - bull flag/descending wedge OR down channel ???

Edited by iloli way, 11 April 2024 - 12:34 PM.

[Douglas]

iloli way, do you tinker around in the Fx market?  The plot below shows my obsession, the British Pound.  I am currently effectively short the pound and am looking for where to cover.  My current thinking is that I will cover on a strike or near approach and turn up at the interior red trend line which also would complete a Larry Pesavento A-B = C-D pattern shown by the red arrows.  Its behaviour today at the purple line with three previous touches is making me nervous.  Do you apply your LOL to the Pound or have an opinion on its likely path?

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[iloli way]

Ok, I'll be doodling around BP this weekend for you, kind of a busy week.

 

The last time I tinkered with FX was in my dentist's office on my QuoTrek in the early 90's. lol!

 

ES 4/12 Intraday rubber/road:

 

 

 

[iloli way]

Heres a quicky..

 

[iloli way]

Amature version lol!

 

[Douglas]

iloli way, I read the target value of the cross inside the orange circle as about 1.233 which matches almost exactly my target at the end of the red arrow in my Pound plot above.  So great minds think alike!   To give it a little fudge room and to not be too greedy, say cover at 1.235 or better, about a penny below Friday's close.  Done.  Wish me luck.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

[iloli way]

Douglas, I only do TA, but this baby is mostly FA influenced, so keep that in mind. TA only based on price history, and one has to ask WHAT and WHY since 2007 peaks to 2022 lows was a 50% CUT!

 

LOL! but I don't care, let the chart do the talking. I just trade between lines.

 

Promised weekend update, including more lines and a longer timeframe. HUGE DOWN WEDGE in weekly and daily. Price hit that huge down-upper TL and HAMMERED!

 

On the other hand, BREAKOUT of huge downtrend line would be spectacular too.

 

Daily and weekly with a target price of 1.2275, based solely on TA: Good luck to your trade!

 

 

 

 

Edited by iloli way, 13 April 2024 - 02:18 PM.

[Douglas]

iloli way, thanks for the update.  This trade is less than 1% AUM, so no big deal.  For the real action, I'm waiting for a sub- $1 Pound which could come after late 2024 election if UK swings too far to the left.  My long term target is the bottom of that downward sloping triangle at about 0.85$/£.  Current trade is just playing Powell/Bailey/War interaction.  Monday could be wild depending on what happens in Israel/Iran.  You're right that I will give up this cheap Pound vision if the triangle is broken to the upside and the triangle top is successfully tested.

 

Regards,

Douglas

[iloli way]

Yeah I'll let you smarter traders figure out the greater scheme of things, me just watch the road and turn where my GPS turns. lol! Thanks for the explanations.

 

The past week we finally see the first solid red bar, reversed from the BULL_BEAR LINE and closed at lows.

 

It's now the Bulls' last gasping to remount that BB LINE!

 

For both ES and SPX: let charts do the talking - one line at a time.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by iloli way, 14 April 2024 - 12:58 PM.