65 replies to this topic

[Modest Trader]

As I noted earlier on the SOX, we have a crescendo of volume.  The latest set of 3 black crows doesn't look to me to be anywhere near a selling climax.  Steady increases in volume as we scale lower and lower...  Here's the SOX chart with volumes...

SOX CHART w/Volumes -  3 Black Crow Crescendo

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SB,

Am I wrong, or isn't it usually the case that the so-called momentum bottom with your crescendo volume usually precedes the price bottom on lessening volume as the selling is clearly drying up? If so, we had the high volume momentum bottom last week and are now having the lower volume price bottom this past week and possibly into early next week.

MT

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Wyckoff said tops and bottoms are not made on volume... that's my take... from a relative perspective, we're still developing mo .. volume that is... so perhaps when we can tick under this on some lighter volume day we can reverse it....

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You just lost me again. We've just ticked lower, about only three points on SOX, from the prior week's low, on signficantly lower volume (about 20% lower daily volume on SMH this week from prior week, which should approximate SOX volume), and positive divergences on the NAMO, RSI, CCI, MACD, you name it, and still you still think that momentum is increasing and not decreasing? Please explain.

[Modest Trader]

Regarding INTC in July, you clearly had INTC ready to break down as it was in a bearish wedge off of a major top. Whereas now INTC is in a bullish wedge off a major bottom, and I think ready to close that July gap by the end of April, if not much earlier.

[SemiBizz]

As I noted earlier on the SOX, we have a crescendo of volume.  The latest set of 3 black crows doesn't look to me to be anywhere near a selling climax.  Steady increases in volume as we scale lower and lower...  Here's the SOX chart with volumes...

SOX CHART w/Volumes -  3 Black Crow Crescendo

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SB,

Am I wrong, or isn't it usually the case that the so-called momentum bottom with your crescendo volume usually precedes the price bottom on lessening volume as the selling is clearly drying up? If so, we had the high volume momentum bottom last week and are now having the lower volume price bottom this past week and possibly into early next week.

MT

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Wyckoff said tops and bottoms are not made on volume... that's my take... from a relative perspective, we're still developing mo .. volume that is... so perhaps when we can tick under this on some lighter volume day we can reverse it....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You just lost me again. We've just ticked lower, about only three points on SOX, from the prior week's low, on signficantly lower volume (about 20% lower daily volume on SMH this week from prior week, which should approximate SOX volume), and positive divergences on the NAMO, RSI, CCI, MACD, you name it, and still you still think that momentum is increasing and not decreasing? Please explain.

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Once again, last 3 candles on SOX, increasing volume... We've had this discussion before about volume... to me, as a Wyckoff trader, volume means everything....

There WAS a bullish aspect to getting under the lows on lower volume, however the BEARISH aspect is that increasing volume and price erosion.. big RED FLAG. We would have liked to see the price tick under and present a reversal candle on low volume, and that did not happen... (i.e. no more sellers at the bottom)

That volume has to lighten up, get under the price, then we will be good to go back up and test the tops of the candles from the high volume days....

Edited by SemiBizz, 22 January 2005 - 02:46 PM.

[securelstmile]

If you step away from the dow and look at the nas you will see a chart that looks like every st bottom last year. There were many exhaution gaps down some followed with new breakaway gaps up leaving an island. Some did not leave an island but the exhaustion gap remained. I honestly think the nas will lead the dow. Also, everyone is touting the head and shoulders in the dow. I remember the h and s in oil with the broken neckline recently before it ramped higher.

[Modest Trader]

If you step away from the dow and look at the nas you will see a chart that looks like every st bottom last year. There were many exhaution gaps down some followed with new breakaway gaps up leaving an island. Some did not leave an island but the exhaustion gap remained.

I honestly think the nas will lead the dow.

Also, everyone is touting the head and shoulders in the dow. I remember the h and s in oil with the broken neckline recently before it ramped higher.

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I agree, but we will really need some type of good news-out-of-the-blue catalyst to get things going this week, and by definition we can't know what that might be. NOK gave it to us back in September, but they don't report until Thur. morning. Can CSCO, AMAT or DELL pre-announce good earnings (they are on a Nov-Jan quarter)? I kind of doubt it.

[Rogerdodger]

I see black crows. They're everywhere!

[BearItch]

BTW
can anybody find three black crows and a rally on the indu chart? Be sure the last crow closes on/near its lows.....

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i got this but both cases have mini capitulation on the next day or two before reversal.

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Those are close but I think one of the most important things for the crows is the close near the lows. A couple of those sticks have tails on the bottom...Point well taken though...
The trouble with my indu chart is that the daily sticks all have tails on them once I go back several years. I believe this is for adjustments to the index.
thanks

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Those are accelerating crows in that post. You can see the bodies increase in size on the decline. Those are capitulation crows in my book. The ones we have now on the indu are not as severe which may not be as bullish. For a good example of crows at work this year, see the RUT 2000. Yes, there are some issues with the overlap but the market does not read candle books.

[Sentient Being]

That seems to be a given in candles. You are trying to get at the psychology of the market and formations will not often be perfect. But a near miss will share the same general psychology.

[BearItch]

That seems to be a given in candles.  You are trying to get at the psychology of the market and formations will not often be perfect.  But a near miss will share the same general psychology.

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Absolutely, sometimes you get crow like patterns with the same result.

More important than the crows on the INDU are the ones registered on Friday for the Wilshire 5000 ($WLSH). BTK had them as well.

[dcengr]

If you step away from the dow and look at the nas you will see a chart that looks like every st bottom last year. There were many exhaution gaps down some followed with new breakaway gaps up leaving an island. Some did not leave an island but the exhaustion gap remained.

I honestly think the nas will lead the dow.

Also, everyone is touting the head and shoulders in the dow. I remember the h and s in oil with the broken neckline recently before it ramped higher.

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I agree, but we will really need some type of good news-out-of-the-blue catalyst to get things going this week, and by definition we can't know what that might be. NOK gave it to us back in September, but they don't report until Thur. morning. Can CSCO, AMAT or DELL pre-announce good earnings (they are on a Nov-Jan quarter)? I kind of doubt it.

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If the bulls can hold on til thursday, then MSFT will surely bring some good news. Intel + Dell forecast shows Microsoft will be a big winner, and it makes up a whopping 8% of the NDX.