195 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

56% AAII bears
25% bulls !!!

NDX:VXN weekly 11 weeks in the dumper (12 weeks in 2002 before recovery began)

Once the light goes off in investors minds and all that sidelined money comes flowing back in it's LOA.

The chasers "cause the rally"

is that this weeks numbers????

[Vector]

those I got last Saturday. They were "latest" #s. Pretty amazing. I heard the last time they were that low was at 1990 lows.

[Vector]

http://www.martincap...pgs/CH_sent.HTM

[da_cheif]

once the front month sp penetrates 1372 then 1400... then the real fun begins....till then its a matter of the proletariat fighting the tape as the wonderfull wall of worry just keeps on growing.

[da_cheif]

monday is a pivotal day........geometry at its finest.....on friday the sept sp nailed its 200 day ma at 1286.......off the low of 7/18 of 1231 a 75% retrace is at 1244.75........the gap fills at 1244.70.......the wed before the week of expiration comes in 8 trading days on aug 9th......soooooo...in a perfect world 1244.75 will be reached on or about aug 9th.....however.....in an imperfect world any move above fridays high of 1286 by more than a nano tic or 2 and more importantly the 150 day ma at 1295.50 the gap at 1299.10 is the next overhead target....i hate gaps underneath....i luv gaps overhed <G>....specially that one at 1339.20..... ...can you just imagine how foaming at the mouth the bears will get if da boyz decide to go for that 1244 gap.......it would probably require some news event to alibi the move as everything is pointing up intermediate term but short term the clx ******** is now at a crossroads as the aydis is in the sell zone (can stay there for a long time) and 10 day offsets will be used up on monday or tuesday....sooo after the normal volatility surrounding expiration ...... The end result?....much higher prices.......one big plus for the short term remains the high trin readings and other measures of sentiment like timer digest, aaii, and investors intell which all show inordinate defensiveness relative to price and the wave structure of the dow transports appears to have completed a clearly defined ABC decline off its hi of mid may....the decline went to and stopped at its 75% retrace off its low of january....and is therefore poised to explode......as for the naz comp....the prior 88.7 intermediate term support is now resistance at 2100.....above that it would appear to be clear sailing to the overall big picture 38.2 retrace at 2645.

[Jnavin]

Beautiful, expert, wise technical analysis...thanks, Chief.

[kc135a]

monday is a pivotal day........geometry at its finest.....on friday the sept sp nailed its 200 day ma at 1286.......off the low of 7/18 of 1231 a 75% retrace is at 1244.75........the gap fills at 1244.70.......the wed before the week of expiration comes in 8 trading days on aug 9th......soooooo...in a perfect world 1244.75 will be reached on or about aug 9th.....however.....

That is what I am seeing ...

If this ....



Then this ...



KC

[da_cheif]

There was a time when those inclined to short the market thought that when the vixo reached 8 that any rise from there would make their short sales productive.....since last july the vixo went from 8 to 22 and the dow rose over 1000 pts. It appears that the vixo is headed to below 8 in the weeks or months ahead.

[Vector]

simply stated... I too wouldn't under-estimate this market's upside ability. The highs have a high probability of being taken out by a significant margin and the recent lows a very low probability of being taken out.

[da_cheif]

from manfred on crystal ball forum......Litte Red Launching pads..

http://www.nowandfut...ield_curves.png