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[da_cheif]

US Market Timing Buy/Sell Climaxes 7 August 2006 By Mike Burke & John Gray Climaxes Total Nasdaq 100 S&P 500 S&P MidCap 400 S&P SmallCap 600 Other Buying 84 0 10 13 9 52 Selling 103 4 5 13 11 70 Last week there were 84 buying and 103 selling climaxes. This a fairly good showing following two weeks with lots of selling climaxes. Three weeks ago, the selling climaxes included four components from the Dow Jones Industrial average. Fairly large numbers of selling climaxes in recent weeks is an indication that a fairly large number of stocks have been under accumulation by savvy investors. Last week saw mixed markets with small gains or losses for the most part. A surge to the upside on Friday morning did not follow through and most averages ended that day with small losses. At the opening the market was strong on the weak jobs report and that suggested no Fed rate hike this week. That mood was replaced by fears that the economy is slowing too quickly. Short-term indicators are uniformly bullish, and further improvement was noted amongst the medium term timing tools. Industry sector charts are reversing up as stocks shift to new buy signals. We still note that four of our five technology bullish %s are oversold, with the fifth almost down to those levels. Markets may be setting up for a good buying opportunity from those areas down the road, and lots of selling climaxes could provide the first clues. Many of these stocks remain out of favor, especially well know companies such as Dell, EMC, Microsoft and Intel. This is still projected as a trading move, and long-term markets are still held back by resistance from highs achieved in May. Sentiment is still excellent. Ten S&P 500 stocks had buying climaxes and five hade selling climaxes. Two weeks ago 17 S&P stocks had selling climaxes and that was a good sign for big stocks. Buying climaxes take place when a stock makes a 12-month high, but closes the week with a loss. They are a sign of distribution and indicate that stocks are moving from strong hands to weak ones. Selling climaxes occur when a stock makes a new 12-month low, but then closes the week with a gain. They are a sign of accumulation and indicate that stocks are passing from weak hands to strong ones. Our work shows that sellers into buying climaxes and buyers into selling climaxes are right about 80% of the time after four months.

[sglasson]

Cheif boss, any idea what those climax numbers were on other important top/bot dates such as: 3-4/2000 top 8-9/2000 bot 10/00 t 12/31/00 b 1/31/01 t 3/31/01 b 5-6/01 t 9/11/01 b etc. . . and more. . . 3/03, 1/04, 8/04, 3/05, 5/05 etc... As always, thanks and quite a thread you got going here!

[da_cheif]

you should start charting the clx numbers and your life will become much easier......

[da_cheif]

US Market Timing Insider Activity 10 August 2006 By Mike Burke & John Gray Recent Insider Activity While overall insider selling still exceeds their buys, the early July data shows a sharp positive shift. That latest data shows the selling pace slowing, and is barely double their purchases. That contrasts to earlier this year when selling exceeding buying by a factor of five. At the market lows mid-June we did note a more modest pick in buy decisions, but this latest action is a clear sign that insiders don’t expect another decline, and wish to buy before higher levels are achieved. This change is not yet reflected in the comments below, as the data used for the sector and stock comments if delayed in the compellation and processing. Favored Groups Favored Groups (top left to bottom right) In general, we consider rankings above 40 as positive. Natural Gas (Distribution) (9) Educational Services (1) These sectors currently show the best insider buy/sell ratios amongst all the sectors we follow. In addition, the numeral after each group title shows how the strong current buying compares to that shown for the same group over the last five years, compiled on a quarterly basis. (1) means the buying in the last quarter was the strongest of the 20 quarters that make up the last five years. (2) means the second best quarter for buying and so on. There are now two groups in this category, with this week’s addition of Educational Services. Worst Groups (top left to bottom right) The following groups have worst ranking for the last 5 years. Financial Services Telecom Serices Grocery Stores Industrial Services Retail Store Industry Telecom Equipment Metal Fabricating Oilfield Svcs/Eqptmnt Building Materials Internet Water Utilities Electrical Equipment Steel- General Auto & Truck Indus Semiconductor Indus Wireless Networking E-Commerce Pharmacy Services Air Transport Railroads Advertising Steel - Integrated Precious Metals / Mining For the groups shown above, their insider selling is the heaviest of the last five years, or 20 quarters. There are twenty-three groups in this situation, with the addition of Grocery Stores this week. Insider Stock Action Methodology Insiders tend to be right, but smart insiders are often early in their decisions to prevent accusations of acting on inside information. We use the overall buy/sell action as predictive of future stock movement, and with the still relatively heavy selling on a historical basis, it remains long term bearish. However, this is only one factor in constructing our overall market outlook. Insider activity is followed in two ways. First, we calculate the total number of insider buy and sell decisions over the past nine months for over 1600 individual stocks. Then we compare the results to similar readings for each company from three months ago. This provides us with a near term direction for insider transactions, either to the buy or sell side, and also shows how the majority of insiders are acting. We consider it a positive _expression of confidence when insiders move to the buy side after a stock has fallen in price. Insider selling does not provide as clear a signal, and often occurs because of factors only affecting the individual, for example, the need to raise some funds. However, new selling by a number of insiders in the same company is not a good sign. Secondly, we view insider activity on an industry group basis. Here we count the number of stocks with a majority of insiders on the buy or sell side; how many show any buying at all; and then the total all of the individual buy and sell side decisions. We weight these factors and compile group rankings. The results often precede movement amongst the stocks in that group. Group focus: This week’s results We surveyed nine groups in detail and below we summarize how their insider buying and selling changed in comparison to three months ago. Food Processing Industry Slightly weaker, with increased total selling and sell side moves. Grocery Store Industry Fell to the worst buy/sell ratio over the past five years. One sell side move. Food Wholesalers Industry Strong improvement with one buy side move in a tiny group. Beverages- Alcohol Industry Unchanged with only one stock showing insiders on the buy side. Beverages- Soft Drink Indus Unchanged with little quarterly difference. Manufactured Housing/RV Ind Weaker action with more overall sell decisions. Tobacco Industry Continues to improve from worst sell buy ratio six months ago. Educational Services Industry Improved and again the best sell buy ratio over the last five years. Entertainment Technology Ind Slightly better on increased total buy decisions. Group focus: This week’s results The large Food Processing Industry sector showed slight weakness over the last quarter. There was an increase in the total number of sell decisions and three sell side shifts. That action was somewhat offset buy a buy side move and more stocks with at least a single insider buy. Last quarter This quarter Change Buying decisions 33 33 0 Selling decisions 215 251 -3 Surplus buying -182 -218 +36 Showing a small positive insider shift was Conagra CAG (2 buys, 0 sells). This diversified food company has been in the doldrums for some time and recently cut their quarterly dividend. Dividend cuts in big stocks often occur in bottom areas. The insider buy is a good sign, as is the 'higher lows' shown on the P&F chart. We also continue to see good buying in Tasty Baking (TSTY) (12 buys, 1 sell) The stock has been trying to build a base for some time. We find the stock attractive and have it in our portfolio. Insiders shifted to the sell side in Hain Celestial Group HAIN (0 buys, 1 sell), Kraft Foods KFT (0 buys, 3 sells) and JM Smucker SJM (2 buys, 4 sells). All of this action appears to be fairly minor. Much more pessimism was shown by Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) (0 buyers, 57 sellers). This stock has surged from $10 a share in 2003 to a $46 high this year. It has benefited from ethanol demand and that has helped the company show a surge in earnings. The Grocery Store Industry also performed poorly since three months ago, with increases in the gross numbers of buy and sell decisions and one component stock showing insiders moving to the sell side. That leaves none with a majority of their insiders on the buy side. Last quarter This quarter Change Buying decisions 5 8 +3 Selling decisions 76 86 -10 Surplus buying -71 -78 +7 There were no shifts to the buy side in this group or any stocks with more buys than sells. The best activity in the group is shown in Great Atlantic & Pacific GAP (6 buyers 8 sellers). Last year the company sold their Canadian operations, reduced debt and paid a sizable cash dividend). Whole Foods (WFMI) (0 buyers, 30 sellers) has shown heavy insider selling for a couple of years. Until recently that had little affect on the rising stock price. This has changed. After an all-time high of $79 last December, the stock has been in a big down trend all year and yesterday moved to a low for the move at $48.support level. There is no reason to buy here. The Food Wholesalers Industry has only 4 stocks, but overall selling has slowed and we now show two of the stocks with their insiders on the buy side. Last quarter This quarter Change Buying decisions 5 5 0 Selling decisions 52 31 -21 Surplus buying -47 -26 +21 We note a shift to the buy side in Supervalu SYU (2 buyers, 0 sellers). This company recently completed the acquisition of supermarket giant Albertson’s. The drop in price from last year’s all-time high of $36 to recent low of $28 makes the stock more of attractive, based on estimated 2006 earnings per share of $2.25 Sysco SVY (1 buyer, 19 sellers) has had negative insider selling for some time. The Beverage-Alcoholic Industry is another tiny group. It has five component stocks and overall activity remains light, with a small increase in buying and selling. There was no change in the quarterly sector ranking. Last quarter This quarter Change Buying decisions 11 15 +4 Selling decisions 32 40 +8 Surplus buying -21 -25 -4 Anheuser Busch BUD (6 buys, 1 sell) has had positive insider buying for a while and the company now seems to be turning the corner in earnings per share after a down year in 2005. Boston Beer SAM (3 buys, 18 sells) has done well in the market the last couple of years, but insiders are betting that it will not continue. P/E of 27 is way above the P/E of 19 sported by Anheuser Busch. SAM has never paid a dividend. The Beverages (Soft Drinks) sector also showed no change this quarter, as measured by by insider activity. There were more buy and sell decisions but no company shifts. Last quarter This quarter Change Buying decisions 8 11 +3 Selling decisions 55 63 +8 Surplus buying -47 -52 -5 Coca Cola KO (4 buys, 0 sells) sells) has been in the stock market dumps for some time and sells for less than half its all-time high of $88 a share from the 1990’s, Warren Buffet has been a long-term holder. We also see continued buying in Cott Corp COT (5 buys, 0 sellers). Coke’s rival Pepsico PEP (0 buys, 15 sellers) has beaten the pants off Coke in the stock market and has been making new highs, and their insiders are taking chips off the table. The Manufactured Housing Industry showed an increase in the overall number of insider sell decisions and that caused sector weakness for the second quarter. Last quarter This quarter Change Buying decisions 17 19 +2 Selling decisions 27 39 +12 Surplus buying -10 -20 -10 We continue to note fairly positive buying in Fleetwood FLE (5 buyers, 0 sellers) and Monaco Coach MNC (13 buyers, 8 sellers). Fleetwood has reported yearly losses for the last 6 years, but is expected to turn a small profit this year. A newcomer to this group, Drew Industries (DW), has a buyer and 11 sellers. That chart is bearish, declining from a bull trap formation in April, and projects lower. The Tobacco Industry has just three US component stocks. Only two show any insider decisions, and those are on the sell side. Last quarter This quarter Change Buying decisions 3 4 +1 Selling decisions 18 19 +1 Surplus buying -15 -15 0 Industry leader Altria MO (0 buyers, 12 sellers) has been a stock market winner. This selling is not excessive for a company making all-time highs as the insiders need to diversify and take profits. The stock has a relatively attractive 4% yield. Educational Services has five stocks with their insiders on the buy side and five with more selling than buying. That is fairly rare in the current environment, and the group surged higher compared to the other sectors. It again shows the best action for the past five years. Last quarter This quarter Change Buying decisions 16 18 +2 Selling decisions 60 54 -6 Surplus buying -44 -36 -8 ITT Educational Services ESI (8 buyers, 7 sellers) has been a winner in the market. It made an all-time high in price earlier this year and the company has also started to buy back shares, a good sign. Devry DV (0 buyers, 16 sellers) was one of the original stocks in this group and was a leader in the stock market from 1995 to 2000 when it rallied from under $4 to $41 a share. Now it sells for about half that high, at $21. With current earnings of just 60 cents a share, the current P/E is still lofty and insiders are obviously betting the stock is not going to go up. The Entertainment Technology Industry had a more modest quarterly improvement, as the increase in overall buying was greater then the selling increase, measured as a percentage change. Last quarter This quarter Change Buying decisions 8 15 +7 Selling decisions 127 158 +31 Surplus buying -119 -143 -24 Pixelworks PXLW (4 buyers, 1 seller) has plunged from 2000 high of $51 to a recent low of $2. After five years of profits, the company lost money last year and is expected to also lose this year and next year. Positive factors to consider are the high book value of $3.85 per share and the $115 million cash that they hold. Dolby Labs DLB (0 buyers, 34 sellers) went public at $18 in 2002 and only slightly above that price now. The company supplies the sound for the movie industry with a P/E around 30.

[sglasson]

you should start charting the clx numbers and your life will become much easier......

.....clx

[da_cheif]

Weird wollie wed chased tom mclellan out of the market..... He went on a sell signal on the 9th.....pessimism is extreme from poster jerkstore on TW forum from Rassmussen Reports today... Quote: Just 19% of Americans think the economy is getting better these days, while 65% disagree and say it is getting worse. This Rassmussen survey has not been around very long, but a similar poll by Gallup has only once shown more economic pessimism by the public, immediately after the 9/11 attacks with a reading of 19% for better and 70% for worse. The next closest extreme of economic pessimism was in March of 2003 right before the Iraq War began when the poll showed 23% for better and 67% for worse.

[Vector]

I'm still sitting patiently (read HEAVILY INVESTED) awaiting "upside suprises" too

...it's the only place we can go from "here".

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC...mp;g=0&id=p

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC...mp;g=0&id=p

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC...mp;g=0&id=p

This is a no-brainer kids...get with the program. What started in 2003 ain't close to being over. We never entered into a "secular bear market" in 2000...surprise!

[da_cheif]

being a bear is easy......anybody can do it......theres an army of them geniuses out there.....being a bull is dirty work but somebody has to do it.... ....of course its no surprise that we rarely see posted the 10 year monthly charts of the amex.....the value line.....the russell.....the nyse composite.....weekly AD line..II bear bull ratio ..morgan stanley cyclical charts... keeping the equation in balance in favor of the bulls is a product of filling these gap under the market.......thats why AAII show more bears then buls....works all the time......and DA BOYZ are doing a fine job.....

[da_cheif]

I love gaps......made 10 the easy way today.....stayin long the bigguns from 1095....

[da_cheif]

Next target for the dow is 11420 give or take....on tuesday the sep SnP nailed its 200 day moving avg and the vixo dropped and stopped on its 200 day moving avg...so any move above tuesdays high of substance would be a very significant event. Tues gap locked many out of this run so the chase may be on. Sentiment remains in great shape. The tues large gap unless it gets filled quickly suggests that an even bigger gap is coming this side of 1372 .....1372 is the intermediate initial fib target Ive been yappin about for months....Just a scenario to think about as it is a product of a potential 3 gap play and the 4 year cycle low that most agree is due in October......soooooo.. best scenario i can think of......is a run to 1372 with a 3rd gap along the way...(must be the biggest gap of the 3 under the rules of the marcus of queensbury)......then a very sharp decline back to 1245 to mark the 4 year cycle low.....alternate scenario is a run to the gap at 1339 and if there is a large gap on the way there then a decline from 1339 back to 1245 may unfold.....this is all contingent on tuesdays gap goin unfilled in the next few days.....since tuesdays gap fills at the 38.2 support resistance line im hoping that 1273.20 will be reached sooner rather then later. The end result of all this volatile nonsense is the epicenter of primary wave 3 up.....with initial target near 17k on th dow. .....ps....normally during the week of expiration da boyz rarely put 2 days back to back in the same direction........it can look great one day and ugly the next. In this mother of all poker games only the minority that sticks with the overall trend will benefit from these upside surprises......And the trend is up.....staying long from 1095 in the big contract with an occasional e mini short just to keep it interesting........