195 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

38.2 retrace at 1270 producing the bounce.......1272 gap filled........1276.70 seems max risk....as the 200 day ma is being worked over at 1287....1295 or so is the 150 day ma........next overhed gap is 1299.10....hourly model pointing up......thur or friday may be down....weird wollie wed coming up on the 9th......II is at 41% bulls this week and bullish....aths in the dow a given....nyse vle long gone to the moon.....gold silver copper cdx bp all in super bull mkts........usd and bonds......looking south

[da_cheif]

US Market Timing Advisors Sentiment 2 August 2006 By Mike Burke & John Gray Overview The latest sentiment reflected a bit more pessimism than the prior week. The bulls dipped to 41.5%, from 42.2%, while the bears moved up to 36.2%, from 34.5%. This still shows each group within a 3% range for the fourth week, and the bears have been in that range for eight weeks. The bulls are up from a low of 35.6% shown at the mid-June market lows, and that was the fewest bulls since October 2002. Those calling for a correction were down to 22.3% from 23.3% last time. This group is short term bearish, but view pullbacks as buying opportunities, and long term expect the market to go up. A complete table of the Advisory Sentiment appears on the final hotline page. Markets advanced at least 3% last week, and major NYSE averages increased their year-to-date gains, while the NASDAQ remains in negative territory. All show a major improvement from their yearly lows of mid-June. Those lows coincided with the bulls and bears at ‘even’ readings. Normally we would expect more bullishness to accompany the rally. However, somewhat unusually, advisors are mentioning geopolitical events for their reluctance to become more bullish. Newsletter writers are most often only concerned with how the markets react to world events but the latest Mid-East fighting has them increasingly concerned Historically, bulls are 55%-60% when indexes achieve record highs, and those extreme levels of optimism often prove negative. They reflect fully invested positions. High levels of bearishness are usually positive because they most often occur after a major market decline, and reflect that there is plenty of cash on the sidelines. During the range bound market of the last few years, advisors had maintained a bullish bias, and short term opportunities have been indicated after the spread between the bulls and bears contracted to 15% or lower. The difference between the bulls and bears was 5.3%. This has narrowed over the past three weeks, but the expansion from the ‘zero’ difference six five weeks ago was a positive signal that is still in effect.

[da_cheif]

64 Handles off the low and nobody believes it......wow.... (as of 8/2/2006) Bullish: 31.46% Neutral: 21.35% Bearish: 47.19%

[da_cheif]

the gap at 1244.70 remains a headache and maybe if we are lucky it will get filled on or about aug 9th....weird wollie wed........the sept sp closed rite on its 200 day ma on thursday......its possible that the gap at 1299.20 or even 1305.90 will get filled before there is an attempt at 1245.70......unlikely scenario however........one of these days they are gonna leave one of these underneath gaps open forever...just like in jan 91.....sigh....as you can see by thurs early pullback ...the 1276 gap indeed got filled....they open rite on it ...with another gap....which got filled on the upside......play them gaps....free money......snort

[da_cheif]

this morning 35 mins before the opening......they are apparently gonna jump the stops above the 200 day ma on the sept SnP......1295 is the 150 day ma..1299 is next gap.........this morninings opening gap if there is one hopefully will get filled sooner rather than later........

[da_cheif]

Got this email this morning from my guy in Chicago....... Subject: Market Letter Tomorrow: Also, AAII bears/bulls hits 150% again We wanted to write you a quick note to let you know that Keith Hays will be publishing a market commentary tomorrow morning. Regarding the current market environment, you will be interested to learn what has once again developed with the readings on the Association of Individual Investors sentiment poll. This is the one investor sentiment survey that we follow regularly. One of the indicators that we base off this weekly poll number is a ratio of the three week moving average of the bearish respondents to bullish respondents. This indicator has popped above 150% again, meaning over the last three weeks on average there have been 1.5 bears for every bull. This indicator last gave a reading above 150% during the intense market panic in mid June. A reading of 150% is very significant and has only occurred 10 times since this the AAII survey began in 1987, and it is even rarer still that it has triggered again in such a short period of time. The instance where it reached 150% in a period under three months was during the ultimate bear market lows that were reached in July and October of 2002. What does this mean for the market going forward? Upside! On average, when the AAII Bears/Bulls reached 150% in the past, the market was up 19% over the next year compared with an average market return of 10% over the same period. Over the next 13 weeks, the market was up and average of 7% on readings above 150%, which is again much better than the average 13 week market return over the entire period of 4.75%. Regards, Mark Dodson, CFA

[da_cheif]

75% retrace and gap in the dow is at 11423..... next target.....

[Vector]

got the opening gap fill "sooner" rather than later. Good, got that over with quickly. All internals still pointing and moving upwards. No change there. Rally has legs. People getting nervous and selling their longs already thinking "she's done". Man, are they in for a rude awakening. El snorto

[da_cheif]

tuesdays decline.........which of course start4ed with the 2.15 pm est gyration.....stopped at 1272.20 in the sept s n p........from the july 18 low a 38.2 retrace is at 1272.10. Weird wollie Wed may provide for a memorable event.....as any decline below 1272 and more importantly 1264.25 would suggest that the gap at 1244.70 will be filled before the advance resumes......btw that gap is right on the 75% retrace of the advance off the july 18 low.......as for sentiment....it remains in great shape as some market observers are looking at the slow stockastics and therefore are unwilling buyers at the current level... a plus......the 5 day arms remains in buy territory above 600.....the wave structure off the high of 8/4 so far nothing more then a clearly defined ABC corrective wave which may be over....leaving the possiblility open that weird wolly wed will be a point of upside accelaration.......another measure of sentiment the equity pc ratio at 90% for tuesday is another potential positive......the low on the dow for tuesday nailed its 72 day ma and closed just about on its 50% support resistance line off the high of 5/10 and the recent low of 7/18.....my thots are to remain positioned for upside surprises.....expect the worst but prepared for the best ........

[da_cheif]

US Market Timing Advisors Sentiment 9 August 2006 By Mike Burke & John Gray Overview Pessimism continues to grow and that is good. The bulls dipped to 40.2% from 41.5% from a week ago, while the bears moved up to 37.1% from 36.2% the previous week. The bulls are up from a low of 35.6% seven weeks ago. That reading was the lowest since October 2002. The bears are now at their highest level since the 38.2% of February 28th 2003. The bulls are well below the “normal” bull market reading of 45%, while the bears are above their “normal” reading of 35%. That is bullish for the market. On 10/11/02, the bulls were 28.4% and the bears were 43.2%, a difference of almost 15% in favor of the bears. Just two weeks later, as the market turned to the upside the readings were almost reversed with 43.4% bulls and 28.3% bears. The high for the bulls for 2005 was the December 23 reading of 60.4%. Short-term indicators have turned up from oversold levels and the immediate trend of the market is up. Those calling for a correction were up a little to 22.7% from 22.3% last time. This group is short term bearish, but view pullbacks as buying opportunities, and long term expect the market to go up. A complete table of the Advisory Sentiment appears on the final hotline page. The difference between the bulls and bears was 3.1% and this is still below the “normal” 10% and is a bullish reading. Readings will get even more bullish if we see more bears than bulls.