22 replies to this topic

[hedgehawk]

All,

OK I am getting a little bervous about my April Crash Puts with all this talk about 4/20 cycle day. I am wondering if the F8 Fractal might iterate and stretch out to 4/20 before the Crash begins. I am still a novice trader and need some advice from the experts on what you see right now.

First, please only reply in this thread IF you were correctly short during the 2/27 for the Crash.

If you are one of the smart guys who was short for that Crash then I need to know if you are also short now and are looking for a big down move into 4/20 date or if you are long and think that this pig will hold up until 4/20?

Please answer honestly because I really need some advice to learn from the Pros since I have very large stake riding on my April puts and don't want to screw this up.

Many Thanks!
-Greg

A quote on ur position as of todays close:

43.00 QQQPQ.X 0.06 Down 0.05 0.06 0.07 10,286 337,614


You already have a 25% loss, as you stated your entry price was .08, you have to exit on the bid so that is .06 so you lose .02 or 25% of total position value. At about 10 to 15 min after market open on Friday, the time decay will set in and your puts will be worth about .04 +/- .01 If you do not close out tomorrow, they will be worthless Monday morning. Time is your enemy.

You broke the #1 rule in trading my friend. NEVER LET A WINNING TRADE GO NEGATIVE. You should have put a stop loss order at break even (when you were in the money) and exited the trade at .08 when the market reversed today. Exit the position at market open tomorrow.

I am a contrarian trader. I buy when others sell. I sell when others buy. I missed the 2/27 top by 100 points as I shorted at 12,700 and got stopped out. I thought the architects would take the DOW to 13K. I will reload shorts when DOW makes new high. Made a nice profit on my DIA short that I closed today. The QQQQ's are not ideal for options trading as they don't move far enough fast enough. Better to trade DIA, SPY and MDY.

[QID_trader]

Following up on my own suggestion to you from the thread below on finding posts and or chart signals two days

or so, prior to feb 27th, here is something you may want to look at,... and compare.

Still know that not all our charts will always show the signals in time so use a few and take the first one that moves.

See example... feb 26th

Mr. Dev,

That is a great chart you showed that predicted the 2/27 Crash perfect. How do you make that chart? Do you have a service that I can subscribe to? Is that chart showing the same condition now I hope?

Thanks,
-Greg

All,

OK I am getting a little bervous about my April Crash Puts with all this talk about 4/20 cycle day. I am wondering if the F8 Fractal might iterate and stretch out to 4/20 before the Crash begins. I am still a novice trader and need some advice from the experts on what you see right now.

First, please only reply in this thread IF you were correctly short during the 2/27 for the Crash.

If you are one of the smart guys who was short for that Crash then I need to know if you are also short now and are looking for a big down move into 4/20 date or if you are long and think that this pig will hold up until 4/20?

Please answer honestly because I really need some advice to learn from the Pros since I have very large stake riding on my April puts and don't want to screw this up.

Many Thanks!
-Greg

A quote on ur position as of todays close:

43.00 QQQPQ.X 0.06 Down 0.05 0.06 0.07 10,286 337,614


You already have a 25% loss, as you stated your entry price was .08, you have to exit on the bid so that is .06 so you lose .02 or 25% of total position value. At about 10 to 15 min after market open on Friday, the time decay will set in and your puts will be worth about .04 +/- .01 If you do not close out tomorrow, they will be worthless Monday morning. Time is your enemy.

You broke the #1 rule in trading my friend. NEVER LET A WINNING TRADE GO NEGATIVE. You should have put a stop loss order at break even (when you were in the money) and exited the trade at .08 when the market reversed today. Exit the position at market open tomorrow.

I am a contrarian trader. I buy when others sell. I sell when others buy. I missed the 2/27 top by 100 points as I shorted at 12,700 and got stopped out. I thought the architects would take the DOW to 13K. I will reload shorts when DOW makes new high. Made a nice profit on my DIA short that I closed today. The QQQQ's are not ideal for options trading as they don't move far enough fast enough. Better to trade DIA, SPY and MDY.

Hawk,

That is good info. You are right that I am down 25% but after PPI tomorrow that should chnage very fast. The F8 Fractal is also still showing a Crash to start now so I think it is much better for me to hold on to my Puts for now.

Thanks,
-Greg

[Russ]

Looks like it wants to go up now, I would exit those puts on any pull-back if we get one. It is hardest to predict what a non-trending market is going to do. Until a new uptrend is established things can be choppy. Every pullback since march has been smaller, there is not much fear in the market now, bulls are in control.

Edited by Russ, 12 April 2007 - 09:07 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

I was thinking about you today. You seem to be young and bold. Lot's of world champion poker players are the same. But lot's of 'em go "all in" and lose everything. I have observed that the older traders get, they tend to be much more conservative. As they say: "there are bold pilots and old pilots, but no old bold pilots." Good luck with your trade. Roger

[Mr Dev]

Here is a look at that same chart today focusing on vol and breadth momentum.

Remember after the last cross down, I said play the cross of the zero line going both ways,...

well now I would refocused on any crossover of the ema,.. as well as other things such as an hourly chart.

The chart service is decisionpoint.com

[vitaminm]

NDX>1828?

http://finance.yahoo...X qid...0&a=&c=

[Rogerdodger]

QID TRADER,
There is one very big difference now from Feb.'s selloff: Sentiment
Here's my post just before the selloff:

Rogerdodger Feb. 25th 2007 11:07 PM
AAII Sentiment at one year high, 71

Sentiment is neutral at this time at 45.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 12 April 2007 - 11:17 PM.

[snorkels4]

dr correll

[beta]

Squid...the best learning experience you could have right now is to get burned big time. If this position is real and you have bet the farm on a fractal.........you need a big kick in the @ss towards learning TA and what works for you.

Excellent advice.

I would add: if you're relying on board gurus' "advice" for major trading decisions, you should not be trading.

Trading may look deceptively simple, but requires an enormous investment of time, skill, discipline, and empirical observation.

Very few have what it takes to "win" in trading. For most, Vegas provides better odds.

Edited by beta, 13 April 2007 - 12:09 AM.

[pdx5]

As they say: "there are bold pilots and old pilots, but no old bold pilots."
Roger

So the corollary follows...there are bold traders and there are old traders but there
are no old-bold traders!!!