25 replies to this topic

[CLK]

Many a trader has been cleaned out trying to short an oversold daily, that is what we had at the bottom even though we got a retest. The many stop outs that shorts had to incur on the way up I doubt was overcome by much on the correction as well. I've found it very difficult to use the board to my advantage, too many fast traders that get wrong, and you don't know what they are doing in the background to manage those losses. The ones that are wrong most often, provide a good sentiment tool to those that trade on such, otherwise everything else is just noise. I stopped out, am now flat, my indicators are overbought, and I'm not shorting, tops can take time. Another thing, I got caught up in the bear frenzy and stopped out of GM, it bottomed just under 30 and closed the week out at 35 !!!!! As much fun as I've had posting here, it has cost me more money than it has been worth. Good luck.

[da_cheif]

from 18 i wonder how many have made much money......

http://chart.bigchar.../...S&rand=6096

Edited by da_cheif, 16 June 2007 - 08:51 AM.

[Jnavin]

BPSPX:VIX

[NAV]

Many a trader has been cleaned out trying to short an oversold daily,
that is what we had at the bottom even though we got a retest.

The many stop outs that shorts had to incur on the way up I doubt
was overcome by much on the correction as well.

I've found it very difficult to use the board to my advantage, too many
fast traders that get wrong, and you don't know what they are doing
in the background to manage those losses.


The ones that are wrong most often, provide a good
sentiment tool to those that trade on such, otherwise
everything else is just noise.



I stopped out, am now flat, my indicators are overbought, and I'm
not shorting, tops can take time.

Another thing, I got caught up in the bear frenzy and stopped out of GM,
it bottomed just under 30 and closed the week out at 35 !!!!!


As much fun as I've had posting here, it has cost me more money
than it has been worth.


Good luck.

Since you mentioned fast trader, i thought i would pitch in. I have posted about 8 fast trades all in real time on this board since the decline begun. I played short all the way down. I played even the rally back up, but was early in getting out and calling the top of the rally. Out of the 8 trades, only the last one was a loser (about 20 cents loss on my QQQQ pust). Let me tell ya that the last 2 weeks were extremely profitable for me.

The scalpers did well (both long and short). The hourly swingers did well (both long and short). The daily swingers i.e the bears made very little money, since the daily turned up quite late, taking bulk of their profits. The daily longs have got a late buy signal and are sitting on meagre profits, but may get whipsawed again here. The weekly guys had to do nothing but sit tight on their longs or got stopped out on their longs depending on what type of system they use. The monthly folks had nothing to do except yawn... :yawn:

This board has got nothing to do with whether you are profitable or not. It's your own psychology you are fighting against. I recall not a few months back you said, you were tired of all this ST trading and want to just ride the mother of this bull markets, by just sitting tight, which means you were apparently trying to ride the weekly/monthly trend. If that were the case, i am not sure why you were trying to short the ST technicals. Trading long term is as tough, or more tougher than playing the ST game. The only guy i have seen on any message board riding the monthly stuff profitably is da_cheif. Most folks don't have the stomach to do that. The market will get da_cheif also some day - gauranteed . But i am also sure that cheif will stomach that massacre and ride back out again. Now the question you need to ask yourself is, do you have that stomach for a large drawdown or are you going to puke at the bottom like 99% of the traders/investors !.


Trading VST stuff - LOL there only handful who are sucsessful. The rest, who are failures, go on message boards and spew poison as to how harmful ST trading is, as though they are successful with LT approach - LOL. I used ask on various message boards for traders to post a few real time trades and show how susessful their methodology is and i never saw anyone come forward, although they could write 100 pages of thesis on the markets, with some nice TA and rhetoric thrown in. That's why i try to post my trades, whenever possible.

In the end it's a zero sum game, where a few survive, most victims of their own psychology. TA by itself has not made money to even the best technicians, which is why most good technicans end up writing newsletters !. Most don't have the confidence and guts to trade their own recommendations. I would suggest you to read "Trading in the zone", by Mark Douglas, if you haven't read it already.


Of all the places i have visited, this board has some gems (both technicians and traders). I woudn't name them, cuz i would be offending others. There are a handful of traders and technicians i have great respect for and follow them regularly.

Good luck !

Edited by NAV, 16 June 2007 - 10:06 AM.

[Rogerdodger]

The greatest value I have found here is not whether "so and so" is long or short but why they are long or short.

This board has got nothing to do with whether you are profitable or not. It's your own psychology you are fighting against.

So true.
That's the idea behind my signature line below:
"A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest."

[rkd80]

jnavin, this is similar to dev's ndx:vxn is it not? you put it inside a 20,2 BB and trade the x-overs?

Edited by rkd80, 16 June 2007 - 10:41 AM.

[prman]

NAV -- Beautiful post....enough truth and wisdom for the rest of the year -- especially the observation that newsletter "gurus" don't trade their systems. I personally know several of the more famous and, through friends, have knowledge of several others. They either don't trade at all or they use vehicles/instruments/time frames totally removed from those they recommend publicly. Of course, I'm sure a few trade and are successful. We're all familiar with Paul Tudor Jones Weekly Stock and Commodity Tips.

[jawndissedi]

This is the most thoughtful thread I've have seen on this board for a while. Props to CLK for initiating it and to NAV for his excellent response. A book that you might want to look at is Inside the House of Money by Steven Drobny. Not the typical how-to, chest-pounding exercise to show how smart the author is, but a series of interviews with highly-successful, professional money managers that elicit some common themes and experiences.

[Rogerdodger]

The only guy i have seen on any message board riding the monthly stuff profitably is da_cheif.

Don't forget that da_Cheif often hedges at critical areas.

[NAV]

The only guy i have seen on any message board riding the monthly stuff profitably is da_cheif.

Don't forget that da_Cheif often hedges at critical areas.

And lifts those hedges off, way before the decline is over. So it's utility as a hedge is negligible. Like he says, it's just a sacrifice to the BULL godz, or a prayer with a bribe to decimate the bears

The truth is that the guy has a stomach for big drawdowns or does not have a stomach at all . And i am not saying this with disrespect

Edited by NAV, 16 June 2007 - 12:11 PM.