21 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

Well boys and girls...here's the scoop....and I think it's either one of the two...either OEX is headed to the 665/60 area...or spx is going to 1590/1600 minimum

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=1&dy=8&i=p29427833339&a=88408952&r=6706.png



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=60&yr=0&mn=5&dy=16&i=p53407421805&a=107003689&r=3878.png

Edited by Teaparty, 20 July 2007 - 12:39 PM.

[pdx5]

We are in the heart of earnings season. Just watch the trend and you will get a clue which direction the market will go IT. CAT & GOOG have disappointed but the overall trend is not yet clear.

[NAV]

Financials are not leaders. They have been declining for weeks and the stock market ignored them. Leaders are the ones who lead on the upside. The rest I prefer to ignore.

Denleo

Talking about financials, the average bear on the street today knows everthing there is to know about subprime problems. The one's who could not even spell mortgage are now talking about ABX-HE-B and ABX-HE-BBB. LBO, Private equity, Subprime problems, CDOs - the media/public attention on all these is so high and yet the broader market keeps moving higher. That means all this crap is already abosrbed by the market.

Edited by NAV, 20 July 2007 - 12:46 PM.

[eminimee]

Also have to keep an eye on this....TL won't be confirmed until it breaks one way or another. Pure gut...says it's coiling for up....but I might need Tums. (NYAD cumulative won't show until after about 6pm)

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=21&i=p90404195877&a=110673659&r=9457.png

[CNSZ]

My bet is that bears will fail. Indicators right now are far from bullish, but one thing you can count on is short covering. Bought NQ at 2044.

It is a pleasure watching bears cover short positions. Oil is still strong and Dollar is still weak. The best possible combination for indexes.

Denleo

I am new to the board, please forgive me if I ask wrong question.
Am I miss something? Higher oil price and weak dollar will increase inflation, in order for Fed to control the inflation, they will have to increase rate and cut back money supply, while US economy grow is slowing, those action will likely put us in danger of getting into recession. So how could high oil price and weak dollar help index?

[hiker]

recession is at least 6 mos. from now, and market is not yet showing worry about it(except some pockets)..saw this yest. in a subscription service.

Edited by hiker, 20 July 2007 - 12:52 PM.

[ogm]

[denleo]

My bet is that bears will fail. Indicators right now are far from bullish, but one thing you can count on is short covering. Bought NQ at 2044.

It is a pleasure watching bears cover short positions. Oil is still strong and Dollar is still weak. The best possible combination for indexes.

Denleo

I am new to the board, please forgive me if I ask wrong question.
Am I miss something? Higher oil price and weak dollar will increase inflation, in order for Fed to control the inflation, they will have to increase rate and cut back money supply, while US economy grow is slowing, those action will likely put us in danger of getting into recession. So how could high oil price and weak dollar help index?

Your analysis is logical. Therefore the oposite is true. We are on Wall Street. High oil prices are good for energy stocks (they are part of indexes). Low dollar is good just because multinational stocks have better earnings (yes those better earnings don't mean anything in declining currency, but we don't care). Simple, and most importantly BULLISH.

Denleo

[ogm]

My bet is that bears will fail. Indicators right now are far from bullish, but one thing you can count on is short covering. Bought NQ at 2044.

It is a pleasure watching bears cover short positions. Oil is still strong and Dollar is still weak. The best possible combination for indexes.

Denleo

I am new to the board, please forgive me if I ask wrong question.
Am I miss something? Higher oil price and weak dollar will increase inflation, in order for Fed to control the inflation, they will have to increase rate and cut back money supply, while US economy grow is slowing, those action will likely put us in danger of getting into recession. So how could high oil price and weak dollar help index?

High oil = Heavily wieghted in indexes oil stocks will keep going up, pushing the indexes up.

Falling dollar = thats a popular delusion, that erroding currency makes corporate profits from multinationals seem bigger and they are heavily weighted in the indexes and will pull indexes up, provided someone will actually be buying them.

In reality its a delusion, because falling dollar devalues all asset classes including stocks, and is also inflationary on top of that.

Result of falling dollar theoreticaly should be shtinking P/E's as the corporate earnings bvecome worth less, and stocks as an asset class denominated in falling currency also become less attractive.

Edited by ogm, 20 July 2007 - 01:08 PM.

[youmast]

Now smart boyz.... please tell me " what'cha gonna do with all that junk, all that junk inside that trunk?"

I mean where is the best place to hide for American peso? Stocks are bad investment....Real estate is the same... Bonds aren't better choice.... What else?

I wrote about Bernanke's NEO-KEYNESIAN philosophy a couple of years ago... Bernanke told as a professor in his 2000-2002 academic articles .... that only one out of five bubbles get burst. Now we see only the 2nd bubbles in front of us. Two more to come....