10 replies to this topic

[Cirrus]

I'll start by disclosing that I own this stock and I'm still looking to add more. It's one of my best LT investment ideas given a peak oil environment. It's not without risk though as the bulk of their production will not start up for a few years or so and then it grows rapidly. Also, their production is all in relatively risky areas of the world (Africa, Russia, ME).

If you look at the presentation below you will see the potential (slide 20 is just from their Africa property). This company could easily be producing 250k bpd in 2014. At $80 crude that's $7 billion a year in revenue (just from African property) with massive profit margins. Of course, thats just a WAG cause you have royalties, taxes, etc. Given the conservative crude oil price assumption in 2014 you can see the value of the property. The company has a $1 billion or so market cap right now and given its future production potential and reserves it's more than significantly undervalued.

Again, the risk is their property locations. I happen to think the company gets bought out by a mega cap player with a large international footprint that's more capable of bringing their projects to production. The stock ran up massively to 72.5 in early July but the company did a convertable bond issuance--look at the chart--you can guess the conversion price--it's 47.5!! Thus the reason for the selloff. Below is the link and chart.

FWIW, I also added the chart of another top energy investment of mine, GPOR, which is ridiculously undervalued given their recent (a few days ago) multi-billion barrel holdings announcement in the sands. They're also cheap with a great balance sheet, valuation, earnings and solid current production. You get the multi-billion barrel sands asset for free! Also, this thing (GPOR) is closely held by insiders!!! Hopefully the board doesn't mind me putting up my 2 best LT investment ideas in the top sector! Enjoy:

Link.....Check Slide 20!!!








http://stockcharts.c...35710&r=581.png



http://stockcharts.c...35711&r=687.png

[*JB*]

Come on, now! Whether intended as such or not, this is stock touting (or the next thing to it)!! BTW, I own some of this too!

Edited by *JB*, 29 September 2007 - 11:33 AM.

[hiker]

Cirrus has been correct about nearly every idea he has posted here in recent years, for which I am grateful. tout all you want! the evidence is that Cirrus is very discriminating about the ideas shared.

[Cirrus]

Thanks JB/hiker....I'd be neglectful if I didn't mention I have taken you up on several ideas and made money through the year(s). Again, these stocks will work and work handsomely in a peak oil environmnet. There's volatility and risk but the rewards are potentially enormous. Also, BOTH of these stocks are relatively unfollowed by institutions--especially HOC.TO!

[Caduceus]

Come on, now!

Whether intended as such or not, this is stock touting!!

Cirrus has a track record of bringing winning ideas to the board and IMO can "stock tout" all he wants.

Other winning ideas I can recall: GMO, CEO, CSCT, FMCN, YZC, and several Uranium juniors before they made big moves.

Thanks for bringing these to our attention and for sharing your research.

[Rogerdodger]

I appreciate being notified when someone sees a stock being touted or pumped. Usually it's going to be a "first time poster" who is flying through all the stock boards pimping some penny stock. And that's not allowed here. Cirrus is a regular here and a darn good one. Were he to post this same thing repeatedly as some have tried, then I would consider that touting. I just wish he would have "touted" them at $2.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 29 September 2007 - 11:41 AM.

[hiker]

okie dokie, RD....here is one idea in advance with some risk.

if SPX next week sees 1540 to 1546 then enter a swing short, with stop of your choosing...not suitable for leveraged trading, and limit to exposing no more than 5% of trading capital. With those caveats, and all the new info. and price action that could unfold from here to there...let's see how this one works out.

btw, the averages closed below the support t/l's shown here by Tea...what is bullish about that? -

http://www.traders-t...;showentry=1756

as you already pointed out RD, SPX barely moved since last week..ditto NYA. SMH closed down for the week. QQQQ gained over 2%.

http://stockcharts.c...allery.html?bkx

http://stockcharts.c...allery.html?xbd

http://stockcharts.c...allery.html?xlf

XLF 33.57 to 33.80 horizontal zone has been holding...for now

nothing bullish here other than $80 holding is a positive near term-

http://stockcharts.c...allery.html?iwm

Edited by hiker, 29 September 2007 - 11:58 AM.

[*JB*]

Thanks JB/hiker....I'd be neglectful if I didn't mention I have taken you up on several ideas and made money through the year(s).

Again, these stocks will work and work handsomely in a peak oil environmnet. There's volatility and risk but the rewards are potentially enormous. Also, BOTH of these stocks are relatively unfollowed by institutions--especially HOC.TO!

Cirrus,

I know you are a long timer, and a VERY respected poster here! Like I said, I own the stock and feel it is a good one (or I wouldn't own it).

My problem was more the manner in which you presented it seemed out of line with the TOS (yes, I know that's not my job).

Roger put it well in his reply. You should get a pass!! My MAIN problem was with the FORM of your post and concern that it MAY give encouragement for those who tout and that can ruin a board in NO time...or at least make managing this board that much harder.

Please, take NO offense !!

[Rogerdodger]

As I said: I appreciate being notified when someone sees a stock being touted or pumped. (Or any other violation of TOS since I get to read only a very small percent of posts.) When I see blatant violations I make it invisible and report it to administration. If it's borderline, I'll defer judgement to the big boss. He has a nice touch. He puts up with more than I would, but I really think he wants a free flow of ideas and info. And that's good.

[Rogerdodger]

okie dokie, RD....here is one idea in advance with some risk.

if SPX next week sees 1540 to 1546 then enter a swing short, with stop of your choosing...not suitable for leveraged trading, and limit to exposing no more than 5% of trading capital. With those caveats, and all the new info. and price action that could unfold from here to there...let's see how this one works out.

Hiker, I tend to agree.
The price action sure looks suspect.
3/4 moon Oct. 3rd.
It's often been near lows.