high chance of sep rate according to CNBC.
https://www.cnbc.com...-80percent.html
I am doing my own modeling. Reaction in Asian markets should generally be positive but it won't last long. I think positive effect only last till early oct, up till Chinese CPC anniversary on 1 oct. thereafter I think more downside. will look at us markets when I have more data points.
there was a recent forum where 2 very experienced (and retired) traders spoke, one specializing in Hang Seng and the other Taiex. The hang seng guy has a target of 22000, which is about 20% down from current levels. the taiwan guy had a divergent view, ATH for Taiex and U.S. markets.
most reports which I have seen from sell side for this year have all been way off the mark.
Being bearish, I need more moderation in place so I don't get married to a biased trade. Yes, my 'dumb and dumber' trade. Im watching index levels, from generally higher or lower, when rate cut is announced. that will factor big for me.
- i think higher levels means we will see ATH. right this is unlikely based on my biased view. but i prefer this direction. everyone will be happier.
- from lower levels, which is my current view, all bets are off. we are going to have lots is unhappy people except maybe for people looking to rebuild from ashes.
don't know how to post pics here, so all musing to myself is text based. kind of like back to the 80s on my VAX green screen terminal.
Edited by punter, 17 August 2019 - 08:03 AM.