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No gap in the AM, however the selloff at the open was useful in getting rid of the overbought burden. I redrew the channel to follow based upon the horizontal retest of yesterday's higher lows. We have rallied well this morning off of those lows and the two strong stocks WDC and MGM, look good as I have added long call positions (in addition to bull puts spreads). However, we should be maxing out at about 1:30 EDST and I would expect us to work-off the overbought condition into about 2:40. We should be at the lower channel line by then and should rally into the close. We have overcome the new down trendline at about 11:50 and should begin to retest that line soon in the retracement.
I think we have reached the high for today, but expect us to challenge 236 tomorrow morning. It's at that point, we will be overbought and if we are going to turn down again, I would think it is there. I am not of the thought that we can't retest the lows into Mon-Tues next week before rallying again, therefore I am still trying to figure out how to handle that in the context of my current positions. One way is for the market to gap over resistance tomorrow and sell off into 236 acting as support. To accomplish that, we probably have to finish higher and at the highs going into the close. If all comes to pass that may be the means of reaching 240 in the short term.
Unfortunately, the seasonal closing March weakness shows its possible to give much of what this rally will give us, entirely back going into April.
105 Views · 3 Replies ( Last reply by alexnewbee )
Volume acceleration to the downside... Still targeting that 210 area....
273 Views · 2 Replies ( Last reply by art1 )
on Nasdaq with target about 250 points.
Weakness in BKX increase the odds of the above.
299 Views · 5 Replies ( Last reply by alexnewbee )
VXX is currently trading at around $16.25 in the afterhours. It's probably on the way down to its recent lows. However, contango is way under 10% and will probably stay under 10% when VXX gets to new lows. Crap happens when VIX contango is under 10%.
228 Views · 2 Replies ( Last reply by Charvo )
The Oil and Gas Journal posted this graphic today from a WoodMac study, noting:
"The latest oil hedging activity in WoodMac’s analysis of companies, comprising a group of 33 of the largest upstream companies with active hedging programs, shows that companies added 648,000 b/d (annualized) of new oil hedges since fourth-quarter 2016, which is an increase of 33% from last year’s third quarter..."
Generally new hedges cover the production anticipated from new wells in order to assure the recover of the capital costs, so most of this increase is for new production. Due to decline curves and cost recovery there is little "new" hedging for old production.
This dynamic and the recent increases in production in Nigeria and Libya have probably overwhelmed OPEC supply cuts.