According to my system, Thursday the 20th of December is the most likely day this week for a turn or acceleration of the current trend.  This window is a bit soft, so it might be better to say late Wednesday to very early Friday. 

Last  week's Wednesday risk window was a bull's eye with the turn in the DJIA occurring at about 1 p.m. that afternoon slap bang in the middle of the risk window.  I thought the turn would be a sharp, white knuckle affair since the next big step in my Elliott Wave Count is a 3 or C down (I stink at Elliott Wave, so please take my pontifications on the subject with a grain of salt) and I was expecting an important long term soft cycle low.  The window for that low closed on Friday the 14th, so that is in conflict with my expectation for a 3 or C wave down, so I'm all in a fuddle.  

Speaking of fuddle, Powell speaks this week on Wednesday the 19th.  Given his recent weak-kneed statements after the current little market swoon, I think you have to tilt the odds in favor of him going full on dovish in his December statement.  He appears to be cut from the same cloth as the last three stock market boosting FED heads more than willing to let the annuitants and savers just eat cake. 

Speaking of folks tired of being told to just eat cake, if you're still looking for that special Christmas present for any wide-eyed, radical friends, may I suggest a standard French road safety yellow vest (gilets jaunes)  which you can swipe from your next rent car in France or pick up for a few Euros at www.ebay.fr.  If I'm right about that big 3rd wave down, you might just want to buy one for yourself too. 

Regards,

Douglas

The Bear is here but still outside the door, ready to enter, as fear & panic permeate many sectors of Wall St.

SPX daily close is still above 2600, the FED meets this week, the Trade War is thawing and taking a break, and it is a seasonally bullish period, so I am still not in the bear market category, but looking for a rally now, and then the real decline begins in January, maybe late in that month. 

The FED should raise rates, it must or else the market will crumble after an initial pop, but don't be surprised if the FED language is more dovish (bullish for equities)  than many expect. The FED will be in a sweet spot after this rate hike and may throttle back any planned hikes in 2019 until at least the end of Q1. ....unless there is a surprising rise in inflation.

Technically, the market is weak, death cross in place, but unless there is a lower SPX swing low in the daily charts followed by a lower high, the bear will have to stand outside the door, no entry.

2019 will be a down or flat year with SPX trading in a fairly wide range - from 2200 to 2800, with the possibility of new record highs in the SPX and NASDAQ but this seems more and more unlikely.

.....are close to being good enough to screw up the markets beyond all recognition.  As we're seeing right now.  And like we saw in 2008 and 2009.  And before that going into the 2000 top.  It's called major league credit cycles that end up looking like the Magic mountain rollercoaster on a good day.  Yellen wasn't good enough to be able to do rate hikes and cut the balance sheet at the same time.  It's takes real life idiots to make the assumption that they know what they're doing any better than a mad scientist.  And Mr Powell.....you don't want to be listening to Kevin Warsh anytime soon.  He's already spoken on the concept of concurrent rate hikes and balance sheet reduction.  The markets will make you look like a stupid idiot soon enough.  How much is enough from these bozos.....

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