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Precious Metals Update - 4/30/17

advance/decline line precious metals breadth summation index

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#1 fib_1618

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Posted 01 May 2017 - 08:57 AM

As we now move into the 2nd quarter, the updated chart of the XAU/Yahoo advance/decline line drives home the point that the rally in gold and silver had very little underlying support by the PM stocks, and because of this, a double top formation in gold is likely to be triggered from current levels. Expectations from here would be for a minimal downside target for gold to the $1180 level, but with the perceptive break of the December lows seen on the A/D chart this past month, along with the current "rolling over" weakness seen in this same chart, it wouldn't be too surprising if we also see a challenge of the $1130 level before the next update on April 28th.

 

Well...that forecast turned out to be a big fat fail as the price of gold continued to strengthen into the middle part of April before easing back for the last week or two, in what appears to be, an obligatory snapback to what was the previous highs seen in late February.

 

This month's update gives a different view of things with the Precious Metals McClellan Summation Index showing that it found zero line resistance during the recent divergent run up in the price of gold, and it's now trending, once again, to the downside. It will now take a break below the previous MCSUM lows seen on the chart in order for the current rising trend in gold prices to be violated. With interest rates continuing to trend lower, this is helping to keep this same rising trend in gold intact, but with traders continuing to question these best of intentions, it's probably better to avoid the long side until we see a better undertone in capital investment.

 

Fib

 

pmmcsum042817.png


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#2 gannman

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Posted 01 May 2017 - 09:16 AM

Thanks
feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#3 gannman

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Posted 01 May 2017 - 09:59 AM

Fwiw my interpretation of the weave in gld is we are doing and ABC correction since Feb 27

And it is an irregular ABC . I think we are almost finished and should have a very strong

Rally in gld famous last words
feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#4 dougie

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Posted 01 May 2017 - 11:20 AM

Thanks again Fib.

#5 kssmibotm

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Posted 07 May 2017 - 12:41 PM

One potential ewave count suggests gold could get crushed.

 

9e0010f866b97a5be05f995c7d292176.jpg



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#6 fib_1618

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Posted 08 May 2017 - 12:27 PM

One potential ewave count suggests gold could get crushed.

 

9e0010f866b97a5be05f995c7d292176.jpg

 

Now THAT is an exceptional count which is fully backed by both the internals and the trading psychology that we've witnessed over the last couple of years.

 

Thanks for sharing!

 

Fib


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#7 dharma

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Posted 08 May 2017 - 09:49 PM

one of my primary teachers in ta was w.d. gann . he said that years ending in 7 are really bad stock market years. you can go back to 1907 and every 10 years hence and that has been the case.   i dont know if gold will make a new low or not, it is not a concern ,what is my concern is how do i protect myself from a broad market crash.  i have traded in 87 where i was lightly long the miners /gold and very short futures spx.  i lost on the gold/miners.  and hit a homer on the spx shorts. so, i am not about to make that mistake again  

my feeling is if this 7 plays out,  the fed will panic, and the nature of the gold market will no longer be a tr, but a price markup phase.  its an interesting count. dont know if its true or not. But what i do know is years in 7 are not friendly to the stock market.  miners will be thrown out w/ the baby.  and they very well could make a new low.  we will see about gold.  

the decline years ending w/ 7can start in july (1947) or any time thereafter. after this rally its time to be leery . leery of any monetary instrument.  protect yourself. 

just my 2c

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dharma

 

http://www.seasonalc...s_election.html


Edited by dharma, 08 May 2017 - 09:57 PM.


#8 dharma

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Posted 08 May 2017 - 11:18 PM

here is a post election year chart

http://www.seasonalc...stelection.html

dharma



#9 senorBS

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Posted 09 May 2017 - 09:53 AM

all counts should be considered and any count is possible here, bullish or bearish, however I find it interesting how much the current talk seems much more bearish here and the possibility of a wave 2 bottoms (GDX/HUI/XAU) is barely a whisper. And we currently have significant daily oversold conditions with divergences into recent lows, and we've seen GDXJ assets fall from bear 5.5 bil to 4.1 billion (25%) in less than a month and GDX fall about 19% in the same time frame - sorta seems to support a wave 2 washout? who knows? I have my stops not too far away and I like the bullish/risk/reward against those stops. as always DYODD

 

BSing away

 

Senor


Edited by senorBS, 09 May 2017 - 09:54 AM.






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