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BARRON'S: U.S. and Chinese officials are meeting today in London to continue talks. There may be a low bar for successinvestors probably dont expect a full deal to emerge, but they may be encouraged if the talks end on a friendly note. Consumer price data and producer prices published on Wednesday and Thursday will reveal what tariffs have already done to costs.

Just like the beginning of the year, investors are wondering whether the S&P 500 is on the road to new record highsit needs to rise another 2.3%. Successful trade talks between the worlds two largest economies would be a good start.

Brian Swint

after tariffs were imposed. 

According to my risk summation system, the days in the next week or so with the highest probability of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA  are the afternoon of Tuesday June 10th thru Wednesday June 11th and the afternoon of Friday the 13th thru Monday June 16th. 

 

Last week the Tuesday risk window didn't really catch a turn or a big acceleration event, so dud.  The Thursday risk window caught a double bottom low turn right before an acceleration up which may have been important depending on action early this coming week.

 

Friday's action broke though the reverse head and shoulders neck line that I showed in last week's post.  Unfortunately the DJIA just broke the neck line by a smidgen and then retreated back below it, so no break out and not really a big rejection either.  The mustard triangle still points at about Tuesday or Wednesday in the risk window next week, so maybe the break out/down will happen then.

 

 

Just when you thought fiscal stimulus would come showering down to help the market grow even higher, a catfight breaks out over the Big Beautiful Bill.  Both political parties have learned that worrying about the deficit is a losing strategy.  You win by showering your peeps with funny money be they Republican or Democrat.  The deficit won't matter until it matters and then it will be the only thing that matters, but that's in the unseeable, misty future somewhere, until then, spend, spend, spend.  

 

Given the tepid neckline crossing above and the Washington BBB catfight, a little DJIA retreat might be the path of least resistance next week that is unless the inflation figures due out Wednesday and Thursday light the market on fire.  Yesterday, famished at the end of a long bike ride, I paid $5.30 for an 8 ounce soda that would have cost a dime when I was a kid, but the BLS would probably adjust that down to no price increase at all due to better quality juice, healthier synthetic sweeteners and a fancier glass container.  I don't care how they finagle the figures.  I just know that there's an ever increasing high price for my low level of living.   

 

Regards,

Douglas