This week my turn probability summation system predicts that the days most likely to see a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday August 31st (which may just be a part of a larger window stretching from last Friday) and a window running from about noon on Thursday September 3rd thru Friday September 4th, the same pattern as last week.  

Last week the Monday the 24th turn window tagged a tiny inconsequential low shown in the marketwatch.com plot excerpt below and so was a dud.  The Thursday 27th noon thru Friday the 28th turn window may have caught a top of some degree depending on action this coming Monday.

At Jackson Hole, Warsh carried on with the same old schtick he rolled out at the FED meeting of talking tough with no firm plans of actually doing anything to stem inflation other than helping the Treasury with Bessent's latest operation twist which probably pumps up stocks actually making total real inflation which includes asset price increases worse.  No "we're raising rates until inflation dies" Volcker-like statement. The two year note took it on the chin, but stocks hardly budged having seen this kabuki many times before. 

Regards,

Douglas

I have to postpone by one month the start of the short term correction I'm waiting for. It should be at the beginning of October instead of the beginning of September, eom. 

There's a sector that is bouncing and it should go on for another month. This change of mind happens to me because I tend to adapt myself to the market. What is important is 

that such a change of mind comes before and not after otherwise it would be a joke. Let's see how it will go. 

was teasing Ferro,  she said " would you like to hear him say something about stable coins?"  She nailed my biggest fear right there, that's the only thing that currently exists that could bring us down for decades, worse than the Great Depression. That DOGE fiasco made it abundantly clear the GOP had no intentions in becoming the competent fiscal stewards they told everybody they would be. Just a ploy for a tax cut for the rich. I don't think Warsh will dare mention the debt or stablecoins  He hols the key for the markets next direction in his hands. To be good, though, he really has to hit the cover off the ball, if he can we'll se a huge rally. Tall order though. (JMHO)

lower I'll pick up more, and it might. Probably a medium term hold on this one. (JMHO)

I'm about to do a deep dive into how telling this is, but my thinking is that only "smart money" trades the VIX options. I mean, pretty much everyone here is of well above average intelligence. I'd say we have a fair number of geniuses, in fact. Do YOU feel comfortable trading VIX options?

This month, the VIX P/C has only closed 2 days above 0.50 (that's my bullish/bearish threshold, tentatively). The "smart money" folks appear to be very unwilling to be short the VIX (i.e. implied volatility). That suggests to me that they expect to be (and probably expect others to be) shifting to "risk off" in the coming days. 

In any case, it's fascinating. I'll report on what I and my AI find as we get into it.