very good choices in front of him, he chose the worst one" (Kevin Warsh)

eom

Haven't traded GOLD in recent times but am tempted as GOLD and SILVER reach insane highs. 

Those GLD 1-yr & 5-yr charts are amazing!! 

Gold run up big for Jan. future expiration and contracts settlement today, so we are likely to see a pullback to follow ..........

bounce back. Investors have been negative about software because they see AI as replacing it. Most of that is because they have been lead down the garden path with AI. Their expectations of time are unreasonable as it will take much longer to achieve the benefits. I'll start by admitting where I was wrong, at the beginning of last year I thought it was imperative for a killer app for AI to come out to justify the cap ex spending, It didn't happen and they keep on spending. I think we should be soon coming to realize AI isn't going to be a homerun derby, more like a grind it out pitcher's duel. When I hear Altman and others speak now I hear them conflating AGI and superintelligence purposely. Some people are making it sound like both will be here as soon as 2026-2027. No way, the time differential is why all these AI plays are way over valued and will correct dramatically this year.AI has the greatest potential for the greatest advancements we have ever seen, but that doesn't mean it is going to happen overnight. I think the market tops in the next 2 weeks and a blowoff top is still possible.

https://schrts.co/fDYijEfC

My turn probability summation system windows for the DJIA for this week were/are Monday January 26th and a large window stretching from today, Wednesday the 28th, through Friday the 30th so pretty much the whole week unfortunately. The peak in the summation for that large window is on Thursday the 29th.

Last week the turn windows were on Monday January 20th and Friday the 23rd.  The Monday window caught a low for the week, but the Friday window just caught a one day wonder low which was reversed pretty quickly, so a dud.

The dollar suddenly doesn't have any friends.  The Pound/dollar which impacts me more than other currency pairs due to my UK residence is on the cusp of breaking though a large support resistance line at about 1.40 $/£ shown at the green line in the finviz.com plot below.  If the Pound manages to get through this line, the next obvious target is the old support/resistance line in red painfully for me way back up at 1.70 $/£. 

So it appears that the Fx marketeers are finally joining the metals maniacs in crazy town.  If you believe $114 silver and $5200 gold, I just don't see how you can believe in a strong dollar.  A little dip in the dollar is one thing, but wholesale dollar selling is inflationary since so many US consumer goods are imported.  Next to be affected will probably be other commodities since if you believe in $5200 yellow gold, I don't see how you can believe in $60 black gold.  One or the other must be  mispriced since as many folks in the US just realized, when it gets really cold, black gold is more useful than yellow gold for keeping your toes toasty.

Finally, given the expectations for a nothing-burger Fed meeting, no cut and steady as we go, the presser would normally be expected to be a real snooze fest which I would be tempted to skip, but not today, given this is the first time J. Powell is on center stage after the POTUS took a swing at him.  Powell will surely be sorely tempted to respond.  Given he's only got three or four months left in office, there's a very real chance that his response might contain some real fireworks, cause his good name and legacy are now at stake.  He might just take a serious pot shot in the presser which might make for some don't miss TV viewing.

Regards,

Douglas