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Turn Windows for the Week of July 20th & a UK Fresh S...

Today, 08:03 AM

Posted by Douglas in Fearless Forecasters

According to my turn probability summation system, the days this coming week with the highest chance of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday July 20th and Tuesday the 21st, but the system readings for the rest of the week are too high to ignore.  Not a heck of a lot of help I do realize, but it is what it is.  To make matters worse, this is probably not just one big week wide window, but a series of windows, meaning whipsaw action across the week. 

 

Last week the Tuesday - Wednesday turn window in red in the marketwatch.com plot excerpt below was in the middle of a sort of triple top pattern leading to the decline on Friday.  Not exactly tagging the turn which occurred on Thursday, so I suppose it has to be labelled a dud.

 

July-18th-Hourly.png

 

This past week the QQQ broke out of the diamond pattern that I noted a couple of weeks ago.  With a turn window early this coming week, a turn back up to test the diamond should be expected if an acceleration down does not occur.  For the diamond not to crack, the lower trend line of the pattern must stop that test rally. 

 

July-18-QQQ-Diamond.png

 

On Monday the UK gets a new Prime Minister, Andy Burnham who has promised a fresh start with big changes to make Britain great again to steal a phrase.  Keep an eye on the Pound and FTSE next week for some fireworks depending on what the new PM has to say about his plans.

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

  84 Views · 2 Replies ( Last reply by Douglas )

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OT: Moonshot AI

Yesterday, 10:08 AM

Posted by slupert in Fearless Forecasters
Completed 2 steps

Moonshot AI is a Beijing-based AI startup focused on large-scale foundation models and AGI, best known for its trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts model Kimi K2 and the consumer chatbot Kimi.

Company basics

Moonshot AI was founded in early 2023 by three Tsinghua University alumni, including CEO Yang Zhilin, a Carnegie Mellon–trained researcher behind Transformer-XL and XLNet. The company’s Chinese name, 月之暗面 (“Dark Side of the Moon”), is a nod to Pink Floyd and symbolizes its ambition to explore uncharted territory in AI. It is headquartered in Haidian District, Beijing, in the JD Technology Building.

Funding, scale, and positioning

The startup went from inception to a multibillion-dollar valuation in under two years, raising roughly $1.27 billion and reaching around a $3.3 billion valuation according to 2025 reporting. Major investors include Chinese internet platforms such as Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, and HongShan (formerly Sequoia China). Strategically, Yang has framed Moonshot’s ambition as combining OpenAI’s “technical idealism” with ByteDance’s commercial execution, with a long-term focus on AGI rather than narrow, short-horizon product-market fit.

Core products and models

Moonshot’s flagship consumer product is Kimi, a ChatGPT-style assistant that became popular in China for handling extremely long inputs, reportedly up to about 2 million characters. Underneath Kimi sits Kimi K2, a foundation model with 1 trillion total parameters implemented as a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE), activating about 32 billion parameters per inference for efficiency. The architecture includes hundreds of experts, dozens of layers and attention heads, and a long context window around 128,000 tokens, reflecting a strong emphasis on “lossless long context.”

They have also released specialized models such as Kimi-Audio, an audio foundation model for tasks like speech recognition, audio understanding, and speech-to-speech conversation. For developers, they provide APIs and open-weight models, supported by a GitHub presence and a community forum for technical discussion and integration support.

Technical innovations and training approach

A key technical differentiator is Moonshot’s use of the Muon optimizer and its variant MuonClip, a training method developed by external researchers and extended by Moonshot and UCLA collaborators. Muon uses matrix orthogonalization to avoid getting stuck in dominant parameter directions, improving exploration of the solution space in large models. Reported results include roughly 2x training efficiency, about 50% lower memory usage, and no training failures across 15.5 trillion tokens for a trillion-parameter model, which is notable at that scale.

Kimi K2’s performance benchmarks show strong results particularly in coding and math relative to leading Western models like GPT‑4.1 and Claude Opus, including higher scores on LiveCodeBench v6, SWE‑bench Verified, and MATH‑500 according to public evaluations. Architecturally, the stack combines long-context transformer ideas (building on Transformer‑XL heritage) with MoE routing to keep inference cost manageable while scaling up total parameters.

Philosophy, open-source stance, and economics

Moonshot’s stated research philosophy is to “think from the end,” designing architectures and training strategies around a long‑run vision of AGI and extremely long context windows. Yang has argued that if context length approached one billion tokens, many current problems would disappear because the token space itself becomes a kind of general‑purpose computer or “world model.” In that worldview, fine‑tuning may become less central over time, with instruction-following and contextual learning doing more of the work.

Economically, Moonshot has embraced an aggressive open-source and low‑cost API strategy, open‑sourcing Kimi K2 weights and pricing its API significantly below incumbents (e.g., around $0.15 per million input tokens and $2.50 per million output tokens in public materials). Their shift from closed to open source aligns with broader trends in the Chinese AI ecosystem, where players like Baidu and DeepSeek have demonstrated that open models can be competitive with proprietary ones. They have emphasized that, for them, “users are the only real leaderboard,” prioritizing adoption and practical use cases over benchmark dominance.

For someone with your background, the interesting angle is Moonshot’s combination of frontier-scale MoE models, long-context emphasis, and a cut‑rate open API model, which could impact both AI tooling economics and, downstream, the cost structures of data-heavy and quant workflows. Would you be most interested in how Moonshot’s models could plug into trading and research pipelines, or are you more focused on their broader AGI and macro‑AI implications?

 

  104 Views · 1 Replies ( Last reply by slupert )

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Trading SOXL long so far.(JMHO)

Yesterday, 08:59 AM

Posted by slupert in Fearless Forecasters

Jmho

  96 Views · 3 Replies ( Last reply by slupert )

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He talked about a deep state. LOL Everybody

16 Jul 2026

Posted by slupert in Fearless Forecasters

sees him with Jensen and all the rest of the tech Billionaires hanging out. TSMC announced blowout earnings and the stock sold off anyways, Wall Street and the Billionaires knew what was coming. Things are just great if you are in the Billionaire state, America is gone for everybody else. He iwon't go down alone he will frag America with him. (JMHO)

  92 Views · 1 Replies ( Last reply by slupert )

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It's official, we are a Banana Republic. God only knows

16 Jul 2026

Posted by slupert in Fearless Forecasters

where America is headed now. (JMHO)

  70 Views · 0 Replies



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