I'm starting to re-consider my old idea of January as an important market top while abandoning my latest thought about many months left to the bulls.  Why ? Because if there are sectors 

that are showing that a last bullish leg is underway, what is worrysome is the crypto currencies market. Bitcoin seems to be just bouncing and not beginning a new bullish leg to new highs and that 

is not good for the stock markets because when the crypto bubble bursts, everything else will be taken down as well. And the drop might be epic. 

YOU MUST BE REGISTERED AND LOGGED IN TO VOTE.  Log In | Register 

If the registration module isn't working for you, you can message us here or at admin@ this site and we'll set you up.

Remember, "Partially Long (or Short)" means less than your normal full position. E.g., If you typically use leverage, then 100% long would be "Partially Long".



Check out past Poll results here: http://www.traders-t...n-poll-archive/



 

YOU MUST BE REGISTERED AND LOGGED IN TO VOTE.  Log In | Register 

If the registration module isn't working for you, you can message us here or at admin@ this site and we'll set you up.

Remember, "Partially Long (or Short)" means less than your normal full position. E.g., If you typically use leverage, then 100% long would be "Partially Long".



Check out past Poll results here: http://www.traders-t...n-poll-archive/



 

Well, I tried SHORTs with a few LONGS  - mainly IBIT, NVDA, few others,  in the last few trading days, but this was not profitable. 

I will go flat, still hold IBIT & other longs - BITCOIN already up in Sunday trading, above 91K, and look ahead to a bullish December

RATE CUT almost sure, and Xmas bullish seasonality here. I do not think it will be very bullish but steady up market to end of year.... unless situation in Ukraine, Venezuela etc worsens 

POWELL needs to salvage his reputation - cut and cut and then go home... 

 

Will continue to build a SHORT position as this rally continues - mainly ETF PUTS, and a long IBIT position

 

Will open new DIA & QQQ PUT positions above NQ 25400, YM 47700

Will sell SPY 490 or 495 CALL

 

485

Yes, I like to do this during these market-downtime periods... next full OPTIONS session will be next MONDAY, a few days from now... FRIDAY will be thin & slow 

 

 

want a fill on at least one spy ... on this spike,,,

 

Great DAYTRADING today... VST, not holding for more than 5 minutes

 

Orders to sell JAN 16 SPY CALLS - 680, 685, 690  --- 1 each  to start, should be filled above SPY 680

 

 

Haven't sold CALLS since APRIL... will start with SPY if high of day made near the close 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Will continue to build a SHORT position as this rally continues - mainly ETF PUTS, and a long IBIT position

 

Will open new DIA & QQQ PUT positions above NQ 25400, YM 47700

Will sell SPY 490 or 495 CALL

 

485

Yes, I like to do this during these market-downtime periods... next full OPTIONS session will be next MONDAY, a few days from now... FRIDAY will be thin & slow 

 

 

want a fill on at least one spy ... on this spike,,,

 

Great DAYTRADING today... VST, not holding for more than 5 minutes

 

Orders to sell JAN 16 SPY CALLS - 680, 685, 690  --- 1 each  to start, should be filled above SPY 680

 

 

Haven't sold CALLS since APRIL... will start with SPY if high of day made near the close 

 

 

 

 

 

According to my turn probability summation system, the days with the highest likelihood of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA this week are Monday December 1st, Tuesday December 2nd and Friday December 5th with the highest reading on Tuesday.

Last week the summation system readings were elevated for every day with peaks on Monday and Friday the 24th and 28th.  As seen in the marketwatch.com plot below of the DJIA, the low for the week was on Monday and the high was on Friday, but the market rose persistently all week not really turning so the system's results really weren't much use.  

I also posted some plots of colorful interior trend lines all of which except the highest shown below have been breached by the incessantly rising DJIA.  Given the failure of all of the others, I wouldn't even show this last teal interior trend line again except the turn windows on Monday and Tuesday and the snap back in some sentiment readings such as the TSP survey and the CBOE put call ratios may mean that a correction of some degree might be at hand early this week which would produce a turn.   Of course working against any such turn down is the strong seasonal trend and 1st of the month fund inflows.  

Regards,

Douglas