According to my turn probability summation system's peak readings, the days this coming week most likely to see a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Thursday October 1 & Friday October 2nd.  The turn summation value for Wednesday is also quite high, so maybe some sort of whipsaw affair in the last three days of the week is possible.

Last week the Monday September 21st turn window seen in the first red bracket on the marketwatch.com plot excerpt below, more or less tagged the DJIA high trading range for the week with the exact high in very early trading on Tuesday.  Exactly what last Friday's turn window was pointing to will have to wait on trading this coming Monday.

The next couple of weeks are filled with cycle turn land mines just waiting for the unsuspecting to step on.  The week after this coming week hosts the latest crash risk window which in order to work requires the market to be oversold and for a black swan event to occur, a tall order probability wise, so a very low likelihood of occurring, but given the current wars situations, definitely not a zero risk, but you can probably bet your bottom dollar that the ex hedge fund manager duo running Treasury and the Fed will absolutely meet any market tail spin down with an immediate flood of funny money to quickly stem the drop, so a one day or two day at most slide is about all the bears can hope for. 

If no serious sell off does occur between now and November 9th with all the cycles bottoming, a melt up is possible.  Hard to believe at these nose bleed valuation levels, but short covering and the post-election relief may provide powerful fuel for a rally if the black swans decide to play chicken and roost, not fly during the crash window.

Regards,

Douglas

We likely have a run away train and a top on 9/23 1 TD past the sextile. Looks like 7963 spx by 9/23

Going to be interesting as we are starting this new cycle very strong with lower oil prices and bond yields.  Was just getting out of bed and sold the daily 7780 calls for a nice even $5.  Lets see if this rally continues into the cash open

I will be putting out a comprehensive report this week explaining why I believe the top is close and when the crash lows may be expected this year (and next, a retest looks likely) and how much I'm expecting.

Here is a teaser: I'm looking for a big gap up early Monday the 21st to as much 100 SPX points +/-. My target is 7750 +/-. Escape velocity for this move to the upside is NOT sustainable.  A move below the FED low of last WED by next week (on WED) to around 7461 is expected first, so don't get too bulled up right now. This sets up the last upside impulse into month's end. Price? 7950ish SPX?. The crash will be an October crash.

Trade Wisely

blu

According to my turn probability summation system, the days this coming week with the highest likelihood of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday September 21st and Friday the 25th.

Last week the Monday the 14th turn window caught the high for the week and part of a double top leading to a thousand DOW point sell off.  The Thursday and Friday turn window last week captured the rally out of a low in the relatively high summation value turn window wannabe on Wednesday which I noted in last week's post.

The stock market managed to muddle through last week's serious break risk with only a few dings.  The next high risk window falls in the first full week of October a few weeks from now.  Not sure what happens in the mean time, but sentiment surveys that I track as shown in the plot below have dropped sufficiently to spark a rally if the larger trend has not changed.

The open mouth committee Fed heads hit the stump next week pontificating on what Kevin actually meant to say in his short speech at the presser last week.  I just wish one of them would explain how a quarter point hike in the overnight lending rate is going to fix the current inflation problem especially considering the Fed/Treasury amalgamation is still churning out debt funny money to the tune of more than five billion dollars every single day like there is no tomorrow.  

Regards,

Douglas