would do. Inflation is here to stay.

https://youtube.com/...ts/cOZbElfBdCU?

27-28 min daily, except on days when I mow the large lawn with a push mower.

This week like last week has pretty high turn probability summation system readings just about every day with a peak on Wednesday the 29th, so not much help in calling turns.  A whipsaw affair like last week is probable.  

Last week, as I alluded to above, also had high system readings all week with peaks on Monday and Tuesday the 20th and 21st as shown in red in the marketwatch.com plot excerpt below which foretold whipsaw action which is precisely what Wall Street delivered with three large swings. 

The developing QQQ diamond pattern which I noted several weeks ago did as expected and tested the break of the lower right trend line and is now accelerating away to the downside.

And finally, the Fed conflab is slap bang in the middle of the peak in the turn window this week.  The will he or won't he question is hanging over Kevin, that is, will he fight inflation or won't he jump on Jerome's transitory train for at least a few stops on the tracks to nowhere.  My money's not on dove or hawk.  I'm betting on chicken - talking tough, squawking and flapping his wings a lot, but in the end just sitting there laying an egg, actually doing nothing substantial on the inflation front except to feed it by continuing to enable the printing of funny money like there is no tomorrow to satiate the Treasury's never ending need for debt. 

Regards,

Douglas

Tom McClellan posited this chart on X this morning, and it alarmed me, mildly. The S&P and NYSE have been looking pretty good during the recent chop, but the Naz Ratio Adjusted Summation Index looks pretty darned ugly to my eye. I suspect that we're in for more weakness than I had originally expected, mostly due to the semi's and perhaps the biotechs dragging the rest of the market down.

According to my turn probability summation system, the days this coming week with the highest chance of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday July 20th and Tuesday the 21st, but the system readings for the rest of the week are too high to ignore.  Not a heck of a lot of help I do realize, but it is what it is.  To make matters worse, this is probably not just one big week wide window, but a series of windows, meaning whipsaw action across the week. 

Last week the Tuesday - Wednesday turn window in red in the marketwatch.com plot excerpt below was in the middle of a sort of triple top pattern leading to the decline on Friday.  Not exactly tagging the turn which occurred on Thursday, so I suppose it has to be labelled a dud.

This past week the QQQ broke out of the diamond pattern that I noted a couple of weeks ago.  With a turn window early this coming week, a turn back up to test the diamond should be expected if an acceleration down does not occur.  For the diamond not to crack, the lower trend line of the pattern must stop that test rally. 

On Monday the UK gets a new Prime Minister, Andy Burnham who has promised a fresh start with big changes to make Britain great again to steal a phrase.  Keep an eye on the Pound and FTSE next week for some fireworks depending on what the new PM has to say about his plans.

Regards,

Douglas