We likely have a run away train and a top on 9/23 1 TD past the sextile. Looks like 7963 spx by 9/23

Going to be interesting as we are starting this new cycle very strong with lower oil prices and bond yields.  Was just getting out of bed and sold the daily 7780 calls for a nice even $5.  Lets see if this rally continues into the cash open

I will be putting out a comprehensive report this week explaining why I believe the top is close and when the crash lows may be expected this year (and next, a retest looks likely) and how much I'm expecting.

Here is a teaser: I'm looking for a big gap up early Monday the 21st to as much 100 SPX points +/-. My target is 7750 +/-. Escape velocity for this move to the upside is NOT sustainable.  A move below the FED low of last WED by next week (on WED) to around 7461 is expected first, so don't get too bulled up right now. This sets up the last upside impulse into month's end. Price? 7950ish SPX?. The crash will be an October crash.

Trade Wisely

blu

According to my turn probability summation system, the days this coming week with the highest likelihood of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday September 21st and Friday the 25th.

Last week the Monday the 14th turn window caught the high for the week and part of a double top leading to a thousand DOW point sell off.  The Thursday and Friday turn window last week captured the rally out of a low in the relatively high summation value turn window wannabe on Wednesday which I noted in last week's post.

The stock market managed to muddle through last week's serious break risk with only a few dings.  The next high risk window falls in the first full week of October a few weeks from now.  Not sure what happens in the mean time, but sentiment surveys that I track as shown in the plot below have dropped sufficiently to spark a rally if the larger trend has not changed.

The open mouth committee Fed heads hit the stump next week pontificating on what Kevin actually meant to say in his short speech at the presser last week.  I just wish one of them would explain how a quarter point hike in the overnight lending rate is going to fix the current inflation problem especially considering the Fed/Treasury amalgamation is still churning out debt funny money to the tune of more than five billion dollars every single day like there is no tomorrow.  

Regards,

Douglas

I've got such a feeling, eom.