According to my risk summation system, the days this coming week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday July 14 and Friday July 18th thru Monday July 21st.  

Last week the Monday the 7th window which was part of a larger window stretching back to July 3rd caught a rally, a top, a sell off and a bottom, basically a hump.  The Wednesday risk window caught a one-day-wonder low which lead to yet another hump.  Not exactly a proper stock market term, but hey, that's what it looks like.   Strange that neither rallies nor sell-offs in the humps were sustained.  Kind of toppy looking.

Speaking of toppy looking, the weekly sentiment sum that I track shown below is definitely looking a bit stretched.  It certainly seems that it probably wouldn't take much in the way of bad news to turn the DJIA south for at least a couple of weeks.

Well, the trade deadline du jour is August 1st which covers the EU.  Not sure if tacos will be on the POTUS anticlimactic menu that day, or if the EU will be doing the swallowing of whatever is on offer, or if the EU will be going bold and calling the POTUS's bluff.  That last option might make for some exciting market action.  Of course, the bull case is that this whole mess is worked out before the deadline ever arrives.  May you live in interesting times indeed.

Regards,

Douglas

Is that what we were waiting for in order to see the market correct ?

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possibly leading to a bottom in August. That is the conclusion I've reached. Some years ago I would have fallen into such a trap enterily, me and my shoes included.

Now I'm a lot more cautious, I'm not in a hurry to get in and prefer waiting for clarification and a less risky entry point.