According to my risk summation system, the days this week with the highest probability of a seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Tuesday February 17th and Wednesday the 18th.  As has been the case for many weeks now the summation for the other days this week are also uncomfortably high meaning turns could easily occur any day of the week, not a particularly helpful situation, but it is what it is.

 

Last week the February 9th turn window in red below didn't really amount to anything, however the Wednesday the 11th turn window tagged the double top before a sharp drop, so the system was batting 500.  

 

 

The breakout to the upside from the consolidation area between the two horizontal green lines shown in the hourly DJIA finviz.com plot above that caught me by surprise week before last reversed by the end of last week.  The top green line on the consolidation area now appears to be overhead resistance, not a good look.  With the DJIA currently rising off the mid-Friday the 13th low at the end of trading last week, you have to think that tomorrow's or maybe Wednesday's turn window will send the DJIA heading down confirming the failure of the breakout above the consolidation with the lower green line of the consolidation the first target for the decline.

 

The failed breakout developing looks a lot like a pattern called Turtle Soup made famous by the technician Linda Raschke in which a multiday new breakout high fails almost immediately trapping breakout buying trading systems forcing them to puke their positions as the market falls accelerating the decline. This week should tell the tale if the market is in hot soup or not.

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 

Happens with the difficulty regarding projecting forward cash flows,funds managers have to abide by their charters, once they buy something the have to hold it for a specific period of time,low PE value regulatong traps,will they keep their dividends? Regulating possible monopolys trade wars between our own companies??? AI is different in the sense that could be about power as much as it is money.Especially natural security. Jmho

bounced about 80 points so far, that 24800 doesn't hold I would expect a washout and new lows, (JMHO)

https://shumer.dev/s...ig-is-happening

 

 

 

If you've ever wanted to build something but didn't have the technical skills or the money to hire someone, that barrier is largely gone. You can describe an app to AI and have a working version in an hour. I'm not exaggerating. I do this regularly. If you've always wanted to write a book but couldn't find the time or struggled with the writing, you can work with AI to get it done.

 

I have already seen this first hand with my brother. He wrote a book with Chat GPT's help in a little over a week, by just talking to it, that Chat GPT claims is Pulitzer worthy ....that remains to be seen...but he does already have multiple publishers interested. He had the idea for a while but he had never even dreamed it writing it himself.

 

We joke about trading against the bots, but that is about to go to a whole new level. The pace of increase in functionality is mind blowing as he describes it. Moore's Law on steroids.

Need to figure out how to get my kids prepared for this Brave New World......

 

 

look at that accum/distr. Way up over  top BB. Have to keep my eye on this one.

 

https://schrts.co/ZiCRhjnN