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Mr. Combover's had a good Birthday week so far, but
tonight isn't going to his way. His favorite team, the San Antonio Bone Spurs are going to get beat by my Knicks!! Go Knicks!!
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Trump and Iran, what clusterphuck and a big fail
so iran will likely keep their nuclear and weapons process, seems like the US has failed
That's a pretty fair assessment. Here's the honest breakdown:
What the US said it wanted going in
- Complete elimination of Iran's nuclear program
- Regime change (they assassinated Khamenei)
- A compliant, weakened Iran
What it looks like they're getting
- A ceasefire Iran is dragging its feet on
- Iran retaining control of the Strait of Hormuz
- Nuclear issues "deferred" to future talks — which is diplomatic language for unresolved
- No regime change — Iran's government survived
Why this looks like failure
- Iran's nuclear knowledge can't be bombed away — even if facilities were destroyed, the expertise remains
- Killing Khamenei didn't collapse the regime — it hardened Iranian resistance
- The Strait closure hurt the US and its allies more than it hurt Iran in the short term
- Iran has now shown every country in the world that absorbing a US attack is survivable
The uncomfortable parallel
This rhymes with other US military interventions — Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya — where overwhelming military force achieved initial objectives but failed to produce lasting strategic outcomes
The bottom line
The US likely set back Iran's nuclear program by months or years at most. It did not eliminate it. And Iran will almost certainly reconstitute its capabilities over time, probably with less international oversight than before, since any remaining nuclear deal framework has now been shattered by war.
So yes — on the core objective of permanently eliminating Iran's nuclear threat, the US has very likely failed.
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( Last reply by slupert )
Quick and Dirty Look at the Turn Windows for the Week of...
This weekend I just had time for a quick and dirty look at the turn probability summation system before getting tied up for the rest of the week. Looks like the days with the best bet for a turn or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Tuesday June 16th and Thursday the 18th which appears to have the highest system reading for the week.
Last week the Monday the 8th turn window was part of a larger window from Friday the 5th of the previous week. This window covered a nice move down but not the turn itself on Thursday the 4th, so it must be considered a dud although it probably could be called an acceleration window of sorts, but that's just letting the system off the hook for missing the turn. The Wednesday the 18th turn window did tag the low for the week and the kickoff of the latest bubble event, the SpaceX rally.
The Fed new guy Wednesday presser or the latest Iran War peace talks' news will probably be the main things moving the market in the coming week potentially resulting in some sharp swings.
Regards,
Douglas
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World has it's First TRILLIONAIRE
SpaceX IPO makes Musk the first trillionaire in the world, more than 5 times richer than any other person.
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( Last reply by fib_1618 )
On Fast last 2 nights Dan Nathan has been quite vocal about
shorting semis, Not for me I covered and bought some last night. They have been performing better than I thought they would. If we get another big dive today ,I'll buy a little more. Sissy comes to market tomorrow with a pile of money and something to prove, 9f he says anything about throwing more $$$ to NVDA or other semis, shorts will get their FKN heads ripped off.For me its way too risky to be short semis now. (JMHO)
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