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Risk Windows Broken and and Oil is Not Well

Today, 07:30 AM

Posted by Douglas in Fearless Forecasters

My risk window system does not show any clear risk windows for this coming week. There is a sort of a risk hot spot near the front of the week, say late Monday, early Tuesday and another one late Thursday and early Friday, but the risk sum values in these windows are not that well defined.  I'm not quite sure what to make of it.  Maybe a whipsaw week.  The dispersion in the data has been increasing lately, and I'm probably going to be forced to rejigger the whole cotton-picking system to tighten it up a bit. 

 

Last week the Monday risk window caught a short term double top.  The Thursday risk window caught the 900 point short squeeze rally acceleration that occurred when short traders suddenly realized that the double top couldn't send prices to new lows, but missed the actual low on Wednesday.  Soo OK, but not great.

 

  OOy4aFq.png

 

It doesn't take a genius to figure out what's going to happen when you restrict the supply of something just as demand is kicking into high gear.  Crude has been on fire, figuratively speaking, breaking a thirteen year trend line early this year and a fifteen year interior trend line just this past month.  Expect Energy Secretaries, OPEC talking heads, etc. to come out in mass to try to stop this run.  If all they offer is hot air and no substantive action on supply, it should light the afterburners on the current zooming inflation jet.  

 

  pLX6mC7.png

 

The 2 year Treasury note below, currently yielding roughly a real -5% if you are clueless enough to believe the BLS inflation numbers, makes no sense.  Without massive FED intervention, the current rounding top in the 2 year note should take the elevator down to the lower trend line post haste if even that can stop the fall.  

 

PBtuj7s.png

 

Regards,

Douglas

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Actual Position and Market Opinion Poll for Monday 10/18/21

Yesterday, 02:18 PM

Posted by OEXCHAOS in Fearless Forecasters

YOU MUST BE REGISTERED AND LOGGED IN TO VOTE.  Log In | Register

If the registration module isn't working for you, you can message us here or at admin@ this site and we'll set you up.

Remember, "Partially Long (or Short)" means less than your normal full position. E.g., If you typically use leverage, then 100% long would be "Partially Long".



Check out past Poll results here: http://www.traders-t...n-poll-archive/



 

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OT......Scotland

Yesterday, 02:10 PM

Posted by andr99 in Fearless Forecasters

https://www.liberoqu...lia-gender.html

 

I won' t translate....but in summary.....now in Scotland it is forbidden in governative documents the word ''mother''. It must be substituted with another word which has to be genderless. LOL, chief was spot on yesterday with his post.........

  108 Views · 7 Replies ( Last reply by andr99 )

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Actual Position and Market Opinion Poll for Friday 10/15/21

14 Oct 2021

Posted by OEXCHAOS in Fearless Forecasters

YOU MUST BE REGISTERED AND LOGGED IN TO VOTE.  Log In | Register

If the registration module isn't working for you, you can message us here or at admin@ this site and we'll set you up.

Remember, "Partially Long (or Short)" means less than your normal full position. E.g., If you typically use leverage, then 100% long would be "Partially Long".



Check out past Poll results here: http://www.traders-t...n-poll-archive/



 

  53 Views · 0 Replies

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OT ....brandon of the nba

14 Oct 2021

Posted by da_cheif in Fearless Forecasters

he got the mandated vax and now has clots

 

https://thecovidworl...vid-19-vaccine/

  389 Views · 19 Replies ( Last reply by fib_1618 )



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