I'm about to do a deep dive into how telling this is, but my thinking is that only "smart money" trades the VIX options. I mean, pretty much everyone here is of well above average intelligence. I'd say we have a fair number of geniuses, in fact. Do YOU feel comfortable trading VIX options?

This month, the VIX P/C has only closed 2 days above 0.50 (that's my bullish/bearish threshold, tentatively). The "smart money" folks appear to be very unwilling to be short the VIX (i.e. implied volatility). That suggests to me that they expect to be (and probably expect others to be) shifting to "risk off" in the coming days. 

In any case, it's fascinating. I'll report on what I and my AI find as we get into it.

I've been already selling my September cycle options for the ES but overnight the pajama traders filled my daily sell trades on the ES also with the 7730 calls for $4 and the 7630 puts for $4.  The calls are looking great so far and the 7630 puts just hit $4 again so we'll see how the day goes!!  As we approach September I do believe volatility will remain as the countdown to the election begins and there will be many things said and done that will move the market!! 

then up to new highs for the US together with Europe....my bet 

According to my turn probability summation system, the days this coming week with the highest likelihood of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday August 24th (which might be an extension of the window from last Friday August 21st) and a window stretching from Thursday August 27th (probably just the afternoon) through Friday August 28th.  

Last week the peak system reading occurred on Friday August 21st which caught a sharp rally out of a low shown in the marketwatch.com plot excerpt below.  Action Monday August 24th will determine how important that low was or if it even holds, more on that below.

Not since President Polk and his 54 40 rallying cry has the US and Canada been at such loggerheads (of course Canada was just territories in Polk's day).  It's hard to gauge the impact the new trade war will have on the stock market given the FED and Bessent's new money pumping operation which swung into very high gear last week shifting up from it's previous high gear position.  Not content with secretly pumping the stock market, last week Bessent went public with their plan to drive down long interest rates and consequentially drive up the stock market.  It's hard to get all beared up when the guys with both hands on the printing press crank are turning the handle as fast as possible. Deficits this big don't just pay for themselves you know.

Regards,

Douglas

So, Cumulative Breadth on the NYSE is negative and confirmed, the ITBM on the S&P is negative and confirmed, but the MACD just crossed yesterday which is at least a "Best Fade" Buy.

In my experience, about the time that most good indicators go to Sells, it's bounce time.

M