According to my turn probability summation system, the day with the highest chance of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current down trend in the DJIA is Monday March 30th.  The second highest reading is on Thursday April 2nd right before the long holiday weekend.

Last week the high reading day for the turn summation, Monday March 23rd tagged a big rally which failed forming what now appears to be an important top of one degree or another shown in red on the edited marketwatch.com plot below.

Last week I clearly jumped the gun thinking the first wave down of this correction or bear market or whatever the heck it is was over.  The stair step down continued all week after the POTUS induced early Monday morning short squeeze rally failed.  In the futures market the squeeze rally was even more pronounced and may actually have been a wave two up meaning the first leg down was indeed finished.  Heck if I know whether the futures or cash market has it right.  You would think that surely now the first leg down is over, but option trading sentiment did something that I don't understand late last week.  The individual stock Put/Call ratio dropped sharply even as the market was sinking substantially.  The index Put/Call ration rose as you would have expected.  It appears that late in the week punters believed that the low was in on their favorite stocks and decided to place bets to that effect as shown in the plots below.  This is bearish in my book.  

A more bullish indication of sentiment occurred today when the NY Times put a picture of the declining S&P on the front page of their on-line edition.  Hard to know which sentiment will win out.

Finally Powell talks on Monday.  What do you think the odds are that he will crank up the pump a notch or two?  This sell off is pouring cold water on his bias towards easing making tightening a lot more likely next move which will absolutely enrage the POTUS who has a bad habit of bombing his antagonists both metaphorically and physically, not an attractive prospect for a guy who's already in his gun sights.  I'm thinking Powell pumps hoping the war winds down before the next Fed conflab at the end of April giving him some breathing room to use his go to word, "transitory", to justify doing nothing despite raging inflation.  I bet he will look for any excuse not to jump the gun on rate increases.   

Regards,

Douglas 

Preceding Fridays at 4pm bulls have found themselves saying F___ Me to Tears. Nobody wants to hold the weekend. This has the potential to be another one. even though we are at a point where we usually bottom. The Markert gets trigger happy when you are under the 200 for a few days. The market had one General, Gold, they shot their big winner. Bonds?? Not even! Protect yourself in equities 6000could be in the cards. Needsome real good nes, this market might not be able to stave off bears for another 5 days. (JMHO)

given that in  the US there's freedom of speech, I want to remark again that this one is the worst US politics I have ever seen. I don't remember a US politics as bad as this one. EOM.

When he met with Japanese prime minister and raised the WWII sneak attack while sitting next to her with press (what an idiot), It came to me that Trump is actually Archie Bunker incarnate and he is currently  rolling around in the briar patch entrapped by the tar baby (Iran). The dude has totally misjudged the entire situation.  

"Tar Baby" 

The Original Folklore Origin

It comes from the Uncle Remus stories (Joel Chandler Harris, 1880s), adapted from African and African-American folk traditions. In the tale, Brer Fox creates a doll made of tar and turpentine to trap Brer Rabbit. When Brer Rabbit tries to interact with it, he gets progressively more stuck — the more he struggles, the worse it gets. The tar baby itself is just the trap, not a character with agency.

The Idiom / Political Meaning

In common usage it became a metaphor for:

• A sticky problem that gets worse the more you engage with it
• A situation where every attempted solution entangles you further
• A political or policy trap — the moment you touch it, you own it

Politicians and strategists use it to describe issues they deliberately avoid because engagement itself causes damage, regardless of outcome. Examples include intractable budget items, social policy debates, or foreign policy quagmires.

but I also think that someone that counts a lot, has made it clear that he doesn't want any other market drop and the guys in Wall Street will pay attention and will carefully avoid that substatining the market,

whatever point will be reached int his war, which is far from over. Next stage is boots on the ground.