It's remarkable how the SPX BP just forged its way higher Friday, despite some non-trivial weakness.

I'm thinking we're seeing Buying under cover of NASDAQ weakness. To my eye, that suggests that the market will resolve higher, probably sooner than later.

Wow last night couldn't have been better with futures rocketing higher so just before bed it was easy to sell the daily 7800 calls for $7.50 and with them cut in half this morning they're down to less than $2.  Likely take profits before the open and looking for some puts to sell so we'll see.  It was also nice to sell some November calls for the cycle.  This is a long 5 week cycle so it is easy to sell options on both sides as premiums are huge especially on the put side!!

Fear and Greed Index - Investor Sentiment | CNN

According to my turn probability summation system, the day this coming week with the highest probability of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Thursday October 22nd, but the summations for the rest of the days of the week are so high that multiple turns are possible, maybe a whipsaw affair.

Last week the Monday the 12th turn window shown in the first red bracket in the marketwatch.com plot excerpt below only tagged a minor high leading to a small decline, so a dud.  The Friday the 16th turn window also tagged a high the importance of which will of course depend on action early this coming week.

Since late September the broad market has been making a valiant attempt to head higher, but a number of stocks have dropped out of the march northward over the last couple of weeks as seen in the red versus the green trend lines AD line and stocks above the 200 day moving average divergence with the NY composite index.   It is certainly possible that the breadth will improve healing this divergence, but given October's history, you have to at least consider the possibility that the index might just fall to get in line with breadth.

Finally, could somebody please explain to me how such awful inflation data could lead to a bond rally.  Maybe it was just a short squeeze, or maybe anticipation of Warsh's Alfred E. Newman approach to inflation, What, Me Worry, AI Will Save the Day? speech on Friday that caused the bond rally.  If the red trend line holds, maybe I'm making much ado about nothing, but a break of the line pointing to even lower rates is a hard pill to swallow considering the current rising high price of low living.  Kevin is still talking tough, but a piddly quarter point Fed Funds rate hike and maybe none at the meeting next week and the ever- expanding balance sheet actions certainly don't match the rhetoric. 

Regards,

Douglas