According to my turn probability summation system, this entire coming week is one big turn window with peaks in the summation on Tuesday September 8th and Friday the 11th.  Given all the cycles turning in the next couple of months, this wide spread turn risk is probably just going to get worse before it gets better.  More on that below.

Last week the Monday the August 31st turn window was an acceleration event occurring in what appears to be the 3rd or C wave of a move down as noted in red in the marketwatch.com plot excerpt below.  The end of last week turn window may have tagged a top of some sort depending on what happens this coming Tuesday when the market reopens.

The next few months are mine fields for the market.  It will be amazing if nothing really nasty happens considering all the cycles that bottom over this window.  The peaks of this risk according to a preliminary look at my summation system probably occur this coming week and in the middle of this month,  the first full week of October and the first week of November. 

Regards,

Douglas 

https://www.yahoo.co...-150838488.html

as a result of it here in this part of Europe we are paying gasoline 2 euro/liter while before the Iran war it was 1.6 euro/liter e this rising trend in its cost doesn't cease to stop. So far it's just an increase of 25%.

No further comment needed about the rethorics that the war has been won and Hormuz has been freed. 

https://www.youtube....h?v=4eilygZoRVQ

I am short QQQ.

This week my turn probability summation system predicts that the days most likely to see a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday August 31st (which may just be a part of a larger window stretching from last Friday) and a window running from about noon on Thursday September 3rd thru Friday September 4th, the same pattern as last week.  

Last week the Monday the 24th turn window tagged a tiny inconsequential low shown in the marketwatch.com plot excerpt below and so was a dud.  The Thursday 27th noon thru Friday the 28th turn window may have caught a top of some degree depending on action this coming Monday.

At Jackson Hole, Warsh carried on with the same old schtick he rolled out at the FED meeting of talking tough with no firm plans of actually doing anything to stem inflation other than helping the Treasury with Bessent's latest operation twist which probably pumps up stocks actually making total real inflation which includes asset price increases worse.  No "we're raising rates until inflation dies" Volcker-like statement. The two year note took it on the chin, but stocks hardly budged having seen this kabuki many times before. 

Regards,

Douglas