I was watching Fast last night and Julie Biel called NVDA earnings an open book test. She's right of course, everybody already has a pretty good idea where earnings will fall. Huang has not done anything to increase capacity. He will tell you all day about AI being the largest buildout ever, but he won't put his money where his mouth is.He will continue to dole out compute at his pace, on his own terms when he sees fit. It will be a painful road for the hyperscale's and many more, who eventually need to see gains in their bottom line. Will it hinder AI development. Yes.  

  Let's first look at what appears to be the beginning of an existential crisis in software. All these companies you see getting slaughtered now are all customers of NVDA. Live by the disruption die by the disruption. How many NVDA customers will NVDA  put out of business? Is NVDA safe from disruption. No, they are out in front of the game so far but that could change quickly, reversing NVDA's fortune on a dime. Does NVDA deserve to be garnering a higher multiple. I don't think so the game is changing into a binary one, success or failure. The market has to throw its old PE ratings out the window. NVDA is the one that started this whole Donner Party existentialist unsurety. They aren't immune to it either. Its the Donner Party. (JMHO)

https://schrts.co/JSDXeMFk

goes down 10%. I'll start stalking a long for a quick trade only. (JMH0)

IBM | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

Bertha retired a couple weeks ago, so now they ditch the remaining 2 black guys out of public view. I really enjoyed watching WWEX with Uncle Frank, and John was excellent  after the bell. Now Franks at CNBC Internationals " U.S. Market's Edition". Why the demotion? Where is this show even at? It says John is going to do a new  show that isn't in the works yet, what was the urgency to get rid of him.

CNBC announces changes to Business Day programming | Editor and Publisher

According to my turn probability summation system, the days this week with the highest likelihood of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday February 23rd and Friday the 27th, but as has been the case for lo these many weeks, the summation value for the other days of the week are also disturbingly elevated indicating a higher than normal risk of a turn.  I don't know why this abnormal  continuous risk persists, whether it's my stinking system or some cycle anomaly.  I am going to do a deeper dig into the data this week to try to figure out what the heck is going on.  More to come on that later this week.

Last week the Tuesday thru Wednesday the 17th - 18th turn window shown in the finviz.com plot below in red tagged what appears to be an important top of some degree.  The green overhead resistance line I mentioned last week is still holding for the time being.

As I pen this note early Monday morning UK time, the futures are sagging under the weight of the SCOTUS ruling against the tariffs and the POTUS new 10%, 15% across the board, sort of, quickly stitched together economic Plan B.  Plan A was new Mercantilism which used  targeted tariffs to coerce compliant behaviour from trading partners to encourage reshoring manufacturing to create jobs for the bottom of the economic "K".  I'm not sure what Plan B is, nor does it appear the White House.  An awfully big piece of the economic strategy of this POTUS appears to have died on the steps of the SCOTUS last Friday.   It looks to me like the bottom of the "K" kind of just fell off leaving the US a "Y" economy with everything at the top and diddly squat at the bottom.

So let's see, the current state of affairs is the Treasury and Fed printing money like crazy to pump up the stock market benefiting the top of "K" economy, slashing regulations for corporations again benefiting the top of the "K" and limited across the board tariffs which will just raise prices hurting folks at the bottom of the "K" and not encourage any movement in manufacturing jobs.   Hoping that the bottom of the "K" won't notice and will be satisfied with the old time tested plan of just getting crumbs falling from the table of the top of the "K"  is probably a dangerous strategy with all the promises that have been made regarding jobs and cost of living with the mid-terms looming.  I'm not sure "bread and circuses" will satisfy the restless voting hoi polloi at the lower end of the "K" this time.  Also I don't think that this stock market has yet priced in a potential train wreck coming in November even with all the funny money funnelled its way.  Tick Tock.  

Regards,

Douglas

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