Was it because of the /ES selloff? Can it regroup or more selling to come. (JMHO)

https://schrts.co/PHEkxKjm

talking about the suspicious shorting in the oil futures. Ferro said " all the traders say the same thing, just look at the trades". Have you seen the interviews with Mr. Combover sheepishly saying, " I thought oil prices would be higher". Right from the beginning I thought there was something funky going on there. Friday  at /ES went up and touched 3000, then pulled back, I was expecting it to regroup and try it again. However Mr. Combover was talking to the Press and made peace in the Middle East less likely. Today he said U.S. ships would start escorting tankers through the strait will that help the "mystery shorts" in the oil market keep the lid on. Some times those big short positions just build up a lot of pressure the.... BOOM. We shall see. (JMHO)

According to my turn probability summation system, the day with the highest likelihood this coming week of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Friday May 8th.  

Last week's turn windows shown in the marketwatch.com plot below in red covered pretty much the whole cotton picking week which I must admit was pretty useless, but the Friday May 1st turn window did catch what I believe may have been an important top of some degree with this coming Monday's action needed to confirm this.   I present charts further below to justify this bearish bias.

Will this year live up to the adage to sell in May and go away?  The SPX AD line below would certainly seem to make the case for pending weakness with two divergences.  Of course, a sharp move up driven by some POTUS tweet could "heal" these divergences, but all things being equal, the more likely outcome should be a correction of some degree.

Speaking of nasty looking, the 30 year Treasury weekly yield curve below is once again banging on the door of 5% with the rising triangle saying higher rates could be just around the corner.  Of course, the optimists in the crowd will see beauty where I see a beast and point to the three peaks in rates just under the top line and say triple top which should lead to sharply lower rates in the months ahead.  Depending on your bias, there's something for everyone in this chart.  Given the surge in inflation from the Not War in Iran, it's hard for me to see lower rates in the short term, but then again POTUS tweets and Warsh at the Fed helm may have different ideas.

Regards,

Douglas

https://wavegeniuspr...ave-3-s-forming

This sure looks like Capitulation, to me.