Callum Thomas (who does very nice work), posted some interesting charts on X today. One was retail investors cash allocation. It's low. Really low, and at levels that are generally associated with tops. Similarly, M2-adjusted Margin Debt is also way up there, at levels associated with tops.

The thing is, and this is very important, these long-term charts make these "sell signals" look very timely. I can tell you from painful experience, they're often much earlier than these charts make them look. Bears get punished if they short too soon.

So far investors have been lulled in to complacency with Wall Streets generic Free Cash Flow metrics. In this market you have the hyperscale's, gobbling up all available assets, disregarding their old low asset models. Wall Streets should be using a levered free cash flow metric to account for equity, but that doesn't make stock prices go up, it will have the opposite and you will see drawn downs on some of Wall Street's darlings. Some of the biggies could go down 50-50%. I thought the free ride would continue throughout this year.(I think we all know the transition has to happen sometime) It appears investors have begun crunching equity numbers into their valuationsThe affects can be quite sobering. For a deep dive in to a ROE look into the Dupont analysis.  It allows you to see what parts are producing what performace,How efficient the Company is being run, or are earnings just due to higher leverage?? Investors might challenge managements vie of where the company is headed. For example, "Why didn't we just stick with our old business model'? "If we just used cash for stock buy backs wouldn't we be better off than we are now?/ (JMHO)

DuPont Analysis - Learn How To Create A DuPont Analysis Model

Final Z of (X) Wave Low is Due July 1, not June 30th. I made a calculation error on the TLC.

LINK

According to my turn probability summation system, the day this week with the highest likelihood of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Friday June 26th.  Thursday's system reading is sufficiently high that I probably need to stretch that window to from around noon on Thursday thru Friday.

Last week the Wednesday the 16th turn window caught the closing high for the week and Friday's tagged what now appears to be a minor low given today's action.

As Andr99 noted in the post below this, Europe is boiling.  It's 86F here in the west country of England with a high of 95F expected later this week.  I know that doesn't seem extreme to my friends back in Texas, but trust me, in a land of absolutely no air-conditioning in homes, it's hot and steamy.  I'm painting on the outside of the house this week, so the heat helps me get a good finish, but it's a misery to do the job. If I wanted this kind of summer, I would have stayed in Houston.

The father of modern stock market pumping funny money, Alan Greenspan, has passed away at 100.  Alan added stock market rescuing to the list of Fed mandates when he orchestrated the response to the crash of 1987.  His actions led to the development of the Fed put which has made one way buy-side trading safe and profitable and exterminated short only trading.  Buying the dip knowing that the Fed always has your back has been very profitable for as long as most traders have been in the market.  Warsh talked tough last week, but the proof will be in the pudding.  Given he pledged to reduce inflation below 2% pronto, if he doesn't raise rates at the next meeting, then he's all hat and no cattle.

Today the UK showed the advantage of their parliamentary system when it comes to dealing with a leader who has gotten out of step with the electorate.  A leader strays, there's a backroom coup, some phone calls and it's hasta la vista baby.  Seven leaders in ten years is a bit extreme, but at least folks in the UK don't have to put up with a dud leader for too long unlike the US where you can be stuck with a turnip for four long years.  

Regards,

Douglas

temperatures as high as 45°C are expected in some parts of Spain. Here where I am, one hundred kilometers south of Austria, more or less, we have touched 38 °C. 

I don't know what agriculture can provide with these temperatures and I'm asking myself how distant in time we are from the point when these climatic aberrations start to 

weigh on the worldwide stock markets. In Brazil they don't care much as they keep going on with their deforestation of the Amazon rainforest which is the green factory of the planet,

providing us with oxygen and consuming  CO2.