According to my turn probability summation system, the days this coming week with highest chance of seeing a turn or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday March 16th and Thursday March 19th, but as has been the case for too long a time the summation values for the other days this coming week are uncomfortably elevated, so a turn of consequences any day would not be a big surprise.

Last week the peak of the summation on Tuesday March 10th tagged a turn and the high for the week.

Fed Wednesday March 18th did not bubble to the top of the turn summation spreadsheet, but if the market plunges for some reason early in the week, the Fed whose apparent primary mission is kiting the S&P will almost certainly act and slash rates and increase the already large QE probably driving a market turn if not Wednesday then in the turn window on Thursday.  If the market behaves going into the Fed meeting, I suppose consensus forecast that they will sit on their hands and do nothing is probably the best bet which probably won't move the market that much.

As I believe Mark noted in an earlier post sentiment is getting downright bearish which could support a humdinger of a rally if there is even an inkling of good news. The first chart below is an average of the weekly sentiment surveys' bull percentages that I track, and the second plot is the CNN market indicator both of which are starting to get interesting from a bull's point of view.

Crude did manage to hit the $110/B target that I forecast in last week's post, but could not hold the price till the close.  Hard to know which way the wind will blow on oil given the daily barrage of news.

And finally despite scouring the skies diligently these last several days, I have not spotted any obvious sufficiently large black swans which could drive the market down in this crash risk window.  There are still a few days left before the window closes this coming Thursday, but as has been the case these last several years all I have gotten so far for my efforts peering skyward is pigeon crap in my eyes. 

Regards,

Douglas

are approaching the gulf area. If and only if, that is true, it means only a thing...that the iranian capacity to employ missiles and drones is over or close to be over and the next step 

of this war is going to be fought on the ground. Hormuz should be freed quickly and the bottom in the stock market should be in.   

My bottom spotters are going off. I'm not sure if they're saying "A low is near" or THE low is near. Also, I'd really like to see some capitulation from the Bulls.NAAIM saw some selling, but nothing crazy. AAII saw a bigger jump in Bears than drop in Bullish. That said, Speculators at Rydex are more Bearish than they have been since last April, and more Bearish than they were at any time during 2025.

I'm going to be nibbling more long here.

AAII saw a pretty good surge in Bears this week, which is at least ST Bullish.

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