According to my turn probability summation system, the day with the highest likelihood of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA over the next week or so is Tuesday after next, May 26th (US stock market closed on Monday May 25th).  The next highest system reading is this coming Friday May 22nd with the next lower reading on Wednesday May 20th also high enough to merit being labelled a turn window.  

Last week my quick and dirty calculations pointed to this past Friday May 15th as a turn window and on a daily basis it was with a 500+ point DJIA drop from the previous close peak as shown in the marketwatch.com plot below in red, but the actual turn occurred about mid-day Thursday.  Of course Friday could turn out to be a low if there's a rally on Monday due to some POTUS stock pumping tweet.

The AD line divergence that I pointed out in last week's post is still there and getting worse.   In the plot below I've added the AD volume line showing it is also diverging adding fuel to the fire.

Inflation in anything touched by energy or fertilizer seems to be ripping.  The long bond traders have finally woken up to the problem with a break above 5% this past Friday just adding to the market's woes.  I got a taste of it myself yesterday when I priced an international flight in the same week, on the same airline and following the same route as last year only to find it cost 33% more.  On Friday Warsh became the new Sheriff in town charged with dealing with this outlaw.  I was hoping he would join the host of Fed governors on the stump this coming week pontificating on what should be done, but I didn't see his name in the speech rosters.  I suppose he will either ignore the inflation, rationalizing it away as "transitory" a la his predecessor, or he will try to add a bit of luster to his new star by taking his horse's reins in his teeth and gun rates higher to curb the enthusiasm (just kidding, there's not a snow ball's chance in hades that will happen). 

I think that it is pretty much a dead certainty that he will either explain away and fudge or rejigger the numbers to make it look like there's no problem, but I seriously doubt that my airline ticket will cooperate.  Reality, not inflation is the Fed's actual problem.  How do you convince folks to ignore their lying eyes?

Regards,

Douglas

today in Northern italy 

https://www.ilgiorna...ti-2665633.html

name and surname of the car's driver : Salim El Koudri, he must be for sure a typical northern italian.

But don't worry, the tv has said to us he is not an islamic terrorist, given that for sure the guy suffers from mental ilness. 

Eight wounded, a woman with her legs cut off, two in desperate conditions. But don't worry, he's not islamic and not a fanatic terrorist at all. 

And here is how he and his knife were blocked by the people who were there 

https://www.ilgiorna...ri-2665649.html

Just to let you know how we are in Europe. 

Been busy this week, so just a quick note to say that a cursory look at my summation system indicated that the most likely turn or acceleration of the current trend date this week for the DJIA is Friday May 15th.

Regards,

Douglas

all of that doesn't look healthy in the long term and if it's true that market manipulation can push the stock market exactly where it wants in terms of value, in terms of time I tend to believe that next year 

we will pay the price of this war and of the artificial pumping we have seen over the past recent years. Next year we should see the stock market take a good drop. Nothing lasts forever and market pumping

is not exception.  

I'm seeing the perfect storm happening on Monday: one of those rare days when you get a 7-8% mini panic on the SPX. I'm looking at the WTI oil market and its telling me we could see $145 a barrel very soon!

Whenever I have seen this kind of irregular wave set-up along with a big stretch/right hand translation in the cycles, the set up for a mini one day panic is close like a Monday May 11 mini panic. 

It's telling me we need to break this rising wedge and test SPX 6790 quite possibly Monday!

I don't see much of a bounce into Wednesday and down to lower lows on Friday, maybe 6732 SPX (the last time I saw anything close like this was late Jan 2020 during the week of the FED meeting).

We also had Pluto move into Retrograde Wednesday, too, often seen near important lows.

The astros are very warlike here too with the Mars sq. to Jupiter Monday night and the Sun sextile to Jupiter tonight. Thursday next week see the Sun/Mercury conj., which normally sees a major low within' 1-2 Trading day. The Future Forecasters group of remote viewers see a major attack on one of our aircraft carriers this May and Monday fits the bill for a panic so fill your tanks up with gas. I bought Monday way out of the money SPY puts 708.0 puts for $.07 on Friday.

I see the the stock market having trouble moving higher until the first 3 trading day of June which I believe catapults us to all time new highs by June 3

More pain is due for the first half of June (12th?) then higher into around the July 4 Holiday to more new highs!

Bottom line: I see a COVID like 40+% crash from July 30-31 into Sept 1, down from 7700+ to around 4338. I can't even fathom how high WTI crude will be this summer, $500/600?

Trade safe. Some real $h_t coming me thinks...