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Turn Window for the Week of May 4th & UST Triangle or...

Today, 02:21 AM

Posted by Douglas in Fearless Forecasters

According to my turn probability summation system, the day with the highest likelihood this coming week of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Friday May 8th.  

 

Last week's turn windows shown in the marketwatch.com plot below in red covered pretty much the whole cotton picking week which I must admit was pretty useless, but the Friday May 1st turn window did catch what I believe may have been an important top of some degree with this coming Monday's action needed to confirm this.   I present charts further below to justify this bearish bias.

 

May-3rd-DJIA-Hourly.png

 

Will this year live up to the adage to sell in May and go away?  The SPX AD line below would certainly seem to make the case for pending weakness with two divergences.  Of course, a sharp move up driven by some POTUS tweet could "heal" these divergences, but all things being equal, the more likely outcome should be a correction of some degree.

 

May-3rd-AD-Line-Diverge.png

 

Speaking of nasty looking, the 30 year Treasury weekly yield curve below is once again banging on the door of 5% with the rising triangle saying higher rates could be just around the corner.  Of course, the optimists in the crowd will see beauty where I see a beast and point to the three peaks in rates just under the top line and say triple top which should lead to sharply lower rates in the months ahead.  Depending on your bias, there's something for everyone in this chart.  Given the surge in inflation from the Not War in Iran, it's hard for me to see lower rates in the short term, but then again POTUS tweets and Warsh at the Fed helm may have different ideas.

 

May-3rd-30Y-UST.png

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 

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Rydex Ratio--Uh Oh! Again!

30 Apr 2026

Posted by OEXCHAOS in Fearless Forecasters

This sure looks like Capitulation, to me.

 

RydexRatio04-29-26.jpg

  214 Views · 1 Replies ( Last reply by slupert )

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They were looking for a reason to lighten up. The WSJ

28 Apr 2026

Posted by slupert in Fearless Forecasters

article gave them a reason. I think the most important thing is that investors should start to realize that a better ROI will exist with Anthropic. Some of these companies that cut these deals hastily with Open AI just got get in might be fishing behind the net. (JMHO)

  245 Views · 0 Replies



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