According to my turn probability summation system, the days this coming week with the highest likelihood of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday September 21st and Friday the 25th.

Last week the Monday the 14th turn window caught the high for the week and part of a double top leading to a thousand DOW point sell off.  The Thursday and Friday turn window last week captured the rally out of a low in the relatively high summation value turn window wannabe on Wednesday which I noted in last week's post.

The stock market managed to muddle through last week's serious break risk with only a few dings.  The next high risk window falls in the first full week of October a few weeks from now.  Not sure what happens in the mean time, but sentiment surveys that I track as shown in the plot below have dropped sufficiently to spark a rally if the larger trend has not changed.

The open mouth committee Fed heads hit the stump next week pontificating on what Kevin actually meant to say in his short speech at the presser last week.  I just wish one of them would explain how a quarter point hike in the overnight lending rate is going to fix the current inflation problem especially considering the Fed/Treasury amalgamation is still churning out debt funny money to the tune of more than five billion dollars every single day like there is no tomorrow.  

Regards,

Douglas

I've got such a feeling, eom.

the war has been won and rates are going to be cut.....and obviously the price of oil will drop as never before

Haven't seen him in a while

it's my opinion that the strong hands who drive the stock market as they want paying attention to not disturb someone who is well above them, are currently substaining the stock market to such an extent 

that if one goes short in this period with a larger time horizon than just very few days, he will be severely punished by the market. We' re in a phase of extreme market manipulation. I haven't yet closed my longs 

but when I do, I don't think I will try even a very brief short position, wherever it might be.