The DJIA.  If the DJIA plunges below the 200 day moving average where it is currently sitting and starts dropping precipitously, I predict the POTUS will declare victory and end hostilities.  The best government that money can buy is solely focused on the top of the "K".  Any sign that the upper tranche is about to suffer will bring immediate relief.   Same with the Fed which is expected to stand pat today.  If the DJIA plunges, expect rate cuts and more QE goodies to be rolled out ASAP regardless of inflation.  They'll just let the BLS numbers fudgers sort that out.  Call me jaded, but that's my two cents.  Worth every penny you paid for it. 

Regards,

Douglas

Pesident of the US  says the war is over in two weeks, that is the news newspapers are reporting here in old Europe. And the stock market seems to agree in these last two days. I'm bullish..... 

https://www.ilgiorna...ut-2639384.html

Soleimani and Larijani, two bosses of the islamic republic of Iran are gone. Others are ready to follow the same destiny.

In the meanwhile in Egypt, which is considered a country where islam is very moderate, an italian woman will be undergoing a trial because her ex husband has denounced her 

for adultery.

https://www.ilgiorna...da-2638789.html

She denounced her husband for being violent to her and in return he denounced her for adultery. 

In the islamic world there is the crime of adultery.........laughing my {bleeeep} out. In italy we would all be jailed for that. 

There's a rocket scientist who says I'm a crazy character. He can't understand the meaning of the word ''patriot''. My both grandfathers fought in WW1 and gave their soul

to free the last part of Northern italy and seeing my own land that is going to hell together with whole Europe, without even realizing what's happening, is indecent to me,  

so the heavier this attack on islamic leaders of iran, the better, also considering that the stock market needs to resume its normal path as soon as possible, which matters a lot to 

all those who trade it.  

According to my turn probability summation system, the days this coming week with highest chance of seeing a turn or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday March 16th and Thursday March 19th, but as has been the case for too long a time the summation values for the other days this coming week are uncomfortably elevated, so a turn of consequences any day would not be a big surprise.

Last week the peak of the summation on Tuesday March 10th tagged a turn and the high for the week.

Fed Wednesday March 18th did not bubble to the top of the turn summation spreadsheet, but if the market plunges for some reason early in the week, the Fed whose apparent primary mission is kiting the S&P will almost certainly act and slash rates and increase the already large QE probably driving a market turn if not Wednesday then in the turn window on Thursday.  If the market behaves going into the Fed meeting, I suppose consensus forecast that they will sit on their hands and do nothing is probably the best bet which probably won't move the market that much.

As I believe Mark noted in an earlier post sentiment is getting downright bearish which could support a humdinger of a rally if there is even an inkling of good news. The first chart below is an average of the weekly sentiment surveys' bull percentages that I track, and the second plot is the CNN market indicator both of which are starting to get interesting from a bull's point of view.

Crude did manage to hit the $110/B target that I forecast in last week's post, but could not hold the price till the close.  Hard to know which way the wind will blow on oil given the daily barrage of news.

And finally despite scouring the skies diligently these last several days, I have not spotted any obvious sufficiently large black swans which could drive the market down in this crash risk window.  There are still a few days left before the window closes this coming Thursday, but as has been the case these last several years all I have gotten so far for my efforts peering skyward is pigeon crap in my eyes. 

Regards,

Douglas

are approaching the gulf area. If and only if, that is true, it means only a thing...that the iranian capacity to employ missiles and drones is over or close to be over and the next step 

of this war is going to be fought on the ground. Hormuz should be freed quickly and the bottom in the stock market should be in.