According to my turn probability summation system, this coming week is a mess with elevated probability of a turn just about every day.  The peak in the summation occurs Thursday April 23rd, but the numbers on the  adjoining days are so high that this turn window probably  should encompass Wednesday afternoon and Friday morning too.  Monday also has a high enough reading to qualify as a turn window.  Like I said, a mess.

Last week the Monday April 13th and the Thursday - Friday morning turn windows both caught 1000+ point DJIA rallies as shown in the marketwatch.com plot below in red.  Given the developments in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, the later turn window may have also caught a significant top of some sort depending on action this coming week.

I don't think that I have ever seen the put/call ratio plunge quite the way it did over the last week or so.  Suddenly everybody has donned their Speedo and jumped back into the pool for a swim with the bulls.  Since this is real money being put to work, this action to me has more gravity than any sentiment survey.

As I noted above, developments this weekend in the on-again-off-again revolving door in the Strait of Hormuz where ships are now playing Iranian Roulette may well punish this sudden call option buying giddiness this coming week, but that probably entirely depends on what the POTUS tweets out later today or Monday morning.  At the end of last week, I thought that my short term daily EWave count that I posted last week had died a grizzly death (pun intended) at the hands of the bulls, but the dodgeball straits oil/fertilizer shipping developments may have just breathed new life into it.  I'll post an update early this coming week as a response to this post depending on how things unfold.

I shouldn't even mention the once yet again failed crash risk window that ended last week.  Given the mess in the Strait of Hormuz, I really thought that this one had a chance, but once again this seemingly nasty black swan couldn't make it across the East River to terrorize Wall Street.  I just wonder if the vast reservoir of funny money that's now endlessly sloshing around the world looking for an investment home has distorted these crash risk windows.  You would know that as soon as I manage to find some edge, something would take it away.  

Regards,

Douglas

As the market assumes the war is about to end and so priced in big today.  But let's find out it's true or false within 10 days ............................

eom

for as long as the ceasefire Israel-Lebanon goes on. Indexes here in Europe suddenly go up. 

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