According to my turn probability summation system the days this week with the highest chance of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday March 2nd, Tuesday March 3rd and Friday March 6th with the higher readings near the front of the week which is curious since the system does not have any indicators related to war or conflict.  Also although adjacent, it appears to me that the Monday and Tuesday turn days probably represent separate events and not one larger turn window.  Not exactly sure what that means, but maybe whipsaw action.

 

Last week the Monday February 23rd and Friday February 27th turn windows tagged the sharp drop days and what appear to be lows although the trading on Monday March 2nd might change that description of Friday's turn window.  

 

 

Although I call the Iran conflict a war, it can't be a war since only the US Congress can declare war according to Article 1 of the Constitution and it hasn't done this since 1942.  So like Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, etc. this is not a war, just a defence associated industry restocking exercise, clearing out the old bullet, missile and bomb inventory to make way for new stock I suppose. 

 

My favorite 1970's  bumper sticker said "War is good for business, invest your son".  Given its business friendliness, it's hard to know just how the stock market will react this coming Monday.  Could go up due to all the shinny new miliary associated stuff that has to be ordered, or it could go down do to the reduced supply of oil which could drive up manufacturing cost and inflation.  Rothschild suggested buying on the sound of cannons, the start of the war, and selling on the sound of trumpets, the denouement of the conflict so that would appear to vote for up as well.  I don't have a clue.  It sure looks like the start of the conflict just outside of NYSE hours was chosen to minimize stock exchange disruption, since it clearly is now the economic tide of choice lifting all boats, well at least the yachts on the top of the "K". 

 

Regards,

Douglas 

According to my turn probability summation system the days this week with the highest chance of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday March 2nd, Tuesday March 3rd and Friday March 6th with the higher readings near the front of the week which is curious since the system does not have any indicators related to war or conflict.  Also although adjacent, it appears to me that the Monday and Tuesday turn days probably represent separate events and not one larger turn window.  Not exactly sure what that means, but maybe whipsaw action.

 

Last week the Monday February 23rd and Friday February 27th turn windows tagged the sharp drop days and what appear to be lows although the trading on Monday March 2nd might change that description of Friday's turn window.  

 

 

Although I call the Iran conflict a war, it can't be a war since only the US Congress can declare war according to Article 1 of the Constitution and it hasn't done this since 1942.  So like Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, etc. this is not a war, just a defence associated industry restocking exercise, clearing out the old bullet, missile and bomb inventory to make way for new stock I suppose. 

 

My favorite 1970's  bumper sticker said "War is good for business, invest your son".  Given its business friendliness, it's hard to know just how the stock market will react this coming Monday.  Could go up due to all the shinny new miliary associated stuff that has to be ordered, or it could go down do to the reduced supply of oil which could drive up manufacturing cost and inflation.  Rothschild suggested buying on the sound of cannons, the start of the war, and selling on the sound of trumpets, the denouement of the conflict so that would appear to vote for up as well.  I don't have a clue.  Clearly the start of the conflict just outside of NYSE hours was chosen to minimize stock exchange disruption, since it clearly is now the economic tide of choice lifting all boats, well at least the yachts on the top of the "K". 

 

Regards,

Douglas 

Ed Yardeni sent an email to clients warning of "AI derangement syndrome" gripping the market. On Bloomberg Ann Marie was talking about Block being up by 20% because they are firing half of their workers due to AI.  A pandemic darling that once was worth$280 or so, has now dropped to $40, and Is bullish because they are slaughtering their in puts allegedly because of AI. A green light for the next dash for trash? yep a speculators dream come true. jmho

 

 

https://schrts.co/sYusZtdw

THEY have ran NQ sideways for 4 extra months selling to retail. NOW, with 2nd qtr. here, things should start to unravel on the downside.
This is BTC's bear year of the 4 yr BTC cycle, NQ is not going to be far behind, per 2018, 2022 and now 2026. Looking for a retest of 15k area NQ this year and the move should be starting soon.
AI is overvalued and they keep upping estimates, who will buy them up here, why of course hopeful retail with 2 years experience.
I still remember buying all the way down from 2000 dotcom top, never again.
I closed my SQQQ Calls for minor loss breakeven,
and moved to SOXS JAN. 2028 1 strike Calls.
with 25% of account, still 75% short IBIT with puts for Jan. 2027 and they are up nearly double from when I went short last October.
Looking for 25k-30k BTC by December.

I was watching Fast last night and Julie Biel called NVDA earnings an open book test. She's right of course, everybody already has a pretty good idea where earnings will fall. Huang has not done anything to increase capacity. He will tell you all day about AI being the largest buildout ever, but he won't put his money where his mouth is.He will continue to dole out compute at his pace, on his own terms when he sees fit. It will be a painful road for the hyperscale's and many more, who eventually need to see gains in their bottom line. Will it hinder AI development. Yes.  

  Let's first look at what appears to be the beginning of an existential crisis in software. All these companies you see getting slaughtered now are all customers of NVDA. Live by the disruption die by the disruption. How many NVDA customers will NVDA  put out of business? Is NVDA safe from disruption. No, they are out in front of the game so far but that could change quickly, reversing NVDA's fortune on a dime. Does NVDA deserve to be garnering a higher multiple. I don't think so the game is changing into a binary one, success or failure. The market has to throw its old PE ratings out the window. NVDA is the one that started this whole Donner Party existentialist unsurety. They aren't immune to it either. Its the Donner Party. (JMHO)

 

 

 

https://schrts.co/JSDXeMFk