My risk summation system indicates that the windows this coming week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Wednesday September 18th through the morning of Thursday the 19th and Friday the 20th.

Last week the Wednesday the 11th risk window tagged a nice low.  As always, the jury is still out on the Friday the 13th risk window.  The Friday the 6th risk window the week before turned out to be a dud tagging a low that only held for a couple of days.

Of course this coming Wednesday is Fed pumping day with a cut baked in the cake.  So we'll be eating cake, just how big a slice we'll get is the only question.  The Fed is cutting with gold hitting a record high, inflation in the 3% range even using the baloney BLS numbers, the DJIA within spitting distance of a record high and an unemployment rate in the low 4's.  Considering all this, the bull stock market case from here is to Imagine what those crazy suckers will do if the economy actually starts to tank.  

The long cycle turn that I was expecting this past week I guess came in Wednesday in the risk window, but was much less exciting than I was expecting.  This long mirror cycle only has two more turn dates left before it expires:  this coming Friday September 20th and the following Tuesday the 24th (both +/- a couple of days).  This cycle could go out with a fizzle, but given its past hits, a bang would seem a lot more likely. 

Regards,

Douglas

I was waiting for a bullish reversal to occurr in two or three trading days. Simply because I considered that there will be a nice last rally leading us to a long term top

early next year. The reversal didn' t appear at the start of September as expected, but closer to mid month which was my second favourite option when the first one

decided to fail and on the 10th of September I wrote that the reversal might have occurred at any moment. Well, it's not always easy to have surgical precision and I'm

not desperate if I don't  have it, that's why I avoid futures and trade stocks, however the fact that the reversal occurred, corroborates my idea that this one is the last hurrah

and next year we will start to have big problems. When I say big, I mean BIG.      

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