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Actual Position and Market Opinion Poll for Thursday 6/20/24

Yesterday, 03:54 PM

Posted by OEXCHAOS in Fearless Forecasters

YOU MUST BE REGISTERED AND LOGGED IN TO VOTE.  Log In | Register

If the registration module isn't working for you, you can message us here or at admin@ this site and we'll set you up.

Remember, "Partially Long (or Short)" means less than your normal full position. E.g., If you typically use leverage, then 100% long would be "Partially Long".



Check out past Poll results here: http://www.traders-t...n-poll-archive/



 

  56 Views · 0 Replies

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when you analyze the stock market, keep it simple as it w...

Yesterday, 07:54 AM

Posted by andr99 in Fearless Forecasters

I found this below on youtube and it reminded me of some Elliott analysis about irregular a-b-c-d-e-f-g-............._x-y-z correction, which convinces me as a whole book 

 

discussing the sex of angels.

 

 

the problem is to find the solution to the equation X^2 - X^3 = 12.  An endless sequence of mathematical relations follows to find out an answer that is more than obvious.

 

Here it is when you keep it simple :

 

X^2 - X^3 = X^2(1 - X) 

 

X^2(1 - X ) = 12

 

12 is equal to plus 4 multiplied for plus 3 or minus 4 multiplied for minus 3 , but we can eliminate this second possibility as X^2 can't be equal to -4  

 

So, the solution comes from : 

 

X^2 = 4 , 1-X = 3

 

which gives  X = -2 

 

One billion of complicated reasonings avoided and two minutes taken instead of half an hour.  

 

The analysis of the stock market is the same thing, it works only if you keep it as simple as you can, that at least is what I have come to learn over many years

 

and I will never forget it as long as I will be trading the stock market. 

  184 Views · 5 Replies ( Last reply by andr99 )

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Unusual, my gut told me to short the close....

17 Jun 2024

Posted by cycletimer in Fearless Forecasters

Which I did.  I almost NEVER hold positions overnight. I fade the gaps each morning with daily $SPX options and my ave. trade time is less than 60 seconds.  I quit for the day afterwards.  

 

Only about twice per year do I get a gut feeling that tells me to go short.  Because pf how infrequent this is, my four-year track record on these "gut checks" have a 100% batting average.  I've been busy most of the day and haven't glanced at the market.  However, I logged in 10 min. before the close to check prices, something that again, is unusual as I am in-and-out within minutes of the market open and away to go play the remainder of each day.   Not this time....

 

I purchased the Jun 24th $SPX 4475 puts, I sold a credit spread (Jun 21 5580/5530 calls) AND I purchased 10,000 shares of SQQQ, all at 2:59 cst.  

  311 Views · 3 Replies ( Last reply by 12SPX )

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Actual Position and Market Opinion Poll for Tuesday 6/18/24

17 Jun 2024

Posted by OEXCHAOS in Fearless Forecasters

YOU MUST BE REGISTERED AND LOGGED IN TO VOTE.  Log In | Register

If the registration module isn't working for you, you can message us here or at admin@ this site and we'll set you up.

Remember, "Partially Long (or Short)" means less than your normal full position. E.g., If you typically use leverage, then 100% long would be "Partially Long".



Check out past Poll results here: http://www.traders-t...n-poll-archive/



 

  52 Views · 0 Replies

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I'm a Bear, BUT... Commercial Paper Says...

17 Jun 2024

Posted by OEXCHAOS in Fearless Forecasters

... we're just fine.

 

3-month Financial CP is actually trading at a PREMIUM to non-Financial CP. That's right. The market perceives LESS risk in the financial system than the real economy. And this is mirrored in the tiny premium "risk-free" 90-day T-Bills command. See longer-term chart for context.

30MoTBills-FinCP06-13-24.jpg  

  228 Views · 1 Replies ( Last reply by slupert )



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