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the coming ST or IT correction can't probably start until the 4th of July is out of the cards. Nothing in the world can make the market go down, because they have decided so.

 

Everyday it goes up by two cents and a half, just aiming at calling in the most people they can, obviously on the wrong side which now is the long side. They will be butchered 

 

as always. In the meanwhile I'm on the sideline, watching the herd crossing the river while the crocodiles are there waiting for them. 

We are at the Mercury in Leo trine to the Neptune/Saturn conjunction in warlike Aries as it opposes Pluto in Aquarius. The chaos of Neptune, Saturn and Mercury are entering their retrograde period between July 4-18 is coming! Increases in civil disturbances & revolutions abound, with deep state attacks, false flags, earthquakes, great storms & tsunamis expected soon!

 

The earth is also being bombarded by constant solar storms and energy from an ancient super nova which exacerbates this situation.

 

We are about to see a lot of turmoil ahead, especially as we make new highs in the NDX, NYSE and SPX. Many momentum, volume indicators are NOT confirming these new highs! I believe the retail crowd is being sucked in here and the smart money is about to pull the plug!

 

Today is the last day of June and the end of the 2nd quarter window dressing. A move above S&P 500 6200 is expected to as much as the 6230's possible!

 

July 4 also will see Venus in Taurus conjunct Uranus in Taurus as they both move toward Gemini July 4-7. A great tsunami is possible in the Western Pacific close to this time! July 6-7 Venus sextiles Saturn and Neptune while creating a trine to Pluto. A big drop in the stock market could occur on the 7th with an intervening rally into the full moon in Capricorn on the 9th. Venus rules bonds, currencies, interest rates.

 

Ripples in the pond (tariff related?) suggest a possible melt down in the stock market between the 9th and 14th (Saturn Rx 7/13) with a possible 4 TD irregular low on Mercury Rx 7/18.

Closed 1 each long es, nq, ym

Small hedge into the close. Want to hold all shorts, unless markets drop significantly
Es long 6228
Nq long 22770
BUY LINIT YM 44100

I agree with TIC TOC, trend up but sharp
pullbacks anytime. JULY 4th week normall bullish.

TIC TOc:
When does this party end?

I do see this party end without a warning but when that happens is anyones guess. This will end with a surprise move to the downside which no one saw coming. I do not know what that event will be or when it will come, but I do know that if there is a surprise move to the downside, it will catch a lot of folks proverbially swimming naked and we will see an enormous amount of dealer unwind of their hedges. This will force them to sell and we could see a good 200-300 dollars sell off in a matter of hours.

According to my risk summation system, the days this coming week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday June 30th and Thursday July 3rd.  The' Thursday the 3rd risk window may be part a of larger window that extends through the following Monday the 7th.

 

Last week the DJIA formed an important low right at the beginning of the mid-day Monday through Wednesday risk window.  The action around the 15 minute plot red triangle was maddening with two fake outs before a final break out.  The bottom fake out fooled me and just about every other mother's son who were looking for a high, so naturally what developed was a good old fashioned short squeeze creating an impressive acceleration higher forcing everyone back into the pool. 

 

 

The acceleration higher came just above the neckline on the reverse head and shoulders below right where you would expect it.  This head and shoulders projects a high just above 49,000 on the DJIA - wow!

 

 

The rally this week was so strong that it actually "healed" a couple of the breadth divergences that I pointed out last week.  Yep, that can and will happen just about any time that I point out a divergence.

 

 

The increase in volatility that I predicted last week based on the narrowing of the Bollinger Band width did come to pass, just not in the direction that I thought.  Up volatility can be just as violent when there's a bunch of wet shorts available to squeeze dry.

 

 

Of course my lousy bearish EWave count is now wadded up in the trash can right next to the pieces of my cracked crystal ball that I took a hammer to.  I won't even bother to pen a new EWave folly du jour until all this tariff mess is a bit clearer.  Sure looks bullish based on action last week, but it's not obvious at all to me that Carney, Xi, et al are about to roll over, bark and lick the POTUS's hand.  There's every chance that a full on dog fight is about to commence in earnest.  

 

And finally, my prediction that the bombing in Iran would most likely take place during the new moon was wrong.  They went early using a deception instead of the cloak of darkness of the new moon.  The bulls' luck investment strategy also paid off with Iran's response being muted adding fuel to the stock market rally fire.  Oh well, as I always say, if you can't predict accurately, you should at least predict frequently.

 

Regards,

Douglas