285 replies to this topic

[dharma]

some good input to the forum. has occurred in this decline. here is what i see the decline retraced 50% of the last bottom to top on gdx , hui, a little less on gld we got way oversold on the hourly charts, no divergences just oversold volume was big , on the low hourly , and 15 minute bars, which tells me the lows will be tested(wyckoff) listen anything is possible but, i am waiting to see hourly divergences from oversold and if the dailies get oversold then i will wait for the divergences to occur on a daily basis. i am very long. if i take shots i want to buy producers. i dont think the explorers time is upon us. wave 3of 3 yes it is time. we are in a bottoming process and then the wave of recognition w/increased volatility imo, tight stops ensure that you will take small loses . tight stops are marks. its the right idea, but not for this volatility. its what is going to make this market difficult/impossible to trade. more and more of the public is waking up to the screwing they are taking and going to take. ows is representation of that fact. the anger is simmering . so are the questions. what do i do? the bond holders will be the bag holders. @near 0 % interest rates, that is an easy call, especially after 30+years of bull markets. folks lose sight of these facts because the trends are so long. well the longest cycle is the kondratiefff wave. last time amid the frivolous speculation, the fed called its friends , supporters and colleagues and told them it was ready to embark on a rate increasing phase. joe kennedy et al shorted the market, and the rest is history. i doubt that we will hear anything. charts have to be ones guide. elephants leave footprints. leave yourself lots of room. calling tops and bottoms is not easy. lord knows how many times i got stopped out just before the big move took place. but that was past decades. i am no longer a mark. i am a tick buried on the back of the bull. its only a matter of time for the stabilization of the system takes place. sure it could be a decade. but gold revaluation will occur. dharma do you ever wonder who was soaking up the gold being sold by gordon brown et al (other cbs ) @the lows?!??! ever think about that one. now @1700s cbs have vast buy programs on old yeller. who was buying the lows? could be the same guys you detest now for carrying large shorts in silver? who was it? ideas?

Edited by dharma, 18 November 2011 - 11:21 AM.

[senorBS]

yes and WHAT do you see?

a possible importante low, why else would I be buying? bueno risk/reward if I am right but it has to rally here in my wave work, if it does not I adios muy rapido. Do you ever make a decision? you have to be one of the most frustating amigos on this board

NO BS

Senor

[tradermama]

Just wanted to let the board know and this applies to the overall market which may or may not affect gold (but I think it might)...regarding Dorsey's Point and Figure..the main indicator which is the NYSE BULLISH PERCENT has an intraday reversal from X (demand) to O Supply...meaning a sell is most likely going to come tonight. This should mean by the end of the day we will see that indicator reverse to defense which means supply will be taking over demand. This is triggered when you have a certain percentages of Sells taking over Buys. Even with a rally this wouldn't change unless it was a powerful rally. So, the bottom line would be sell all rallies for now. At this time the indexes are also on sell with a target of 1150 on Spx...again, it doesn't have to go there. A reversal for Spx we would need to see 1270. And even if the indexes reverse back up to buys, doesn't necessarily the mean the main indicator will too. Again, it's a percentage of buys to sells. Also, Dorsey's and Stockcharts PNF can have different signals and patterns. But the one for the SPX which is a bearish triangle breaks is pretty reliable..I think about 75-80%. One thing I do observe to is Jackie Chan's charts which really are worthwhile to pay attention to when he gets his buys and sells. Unfortunately it concurred with the Point and Figure sell i had on gold for gld,slv, xau, hui yesterday. These can of course be negated. But when I combine it with the Point and Figure and looking at the charts, it seems that the downside could continue if you are trading...fwiw. IT's a matter how you are looking at this which I'm looking to get into the gold/silver trade again..( I have the physical just adding some whip cream and cherry to my piece of cake.. ) TM I'll try and remember to confirm it tomorrow if I see the NYSE BULLISH percent reverse to O. Also, I have no problems given the information out on a PNF basis, I just dont care to debate it because these are triggers nothing to do with opinions. THanks and good luck.

[dougie]

great post dharma!

some good input to the forum. has occurred in this decline.
here is what i see
the decline retraced 50% of the last bottom to top on gdx , hui, a little less on gld
we got way oversold on the hourly charts, no divergences just oversold
volume was big , on the low hourly , and 15 minute bars, which tells me the lows will be tested(wyckoff)
listen anything is possible but, i am waiting to see hourly divergences from oversold
and if the dailies get oversold then i will wait for the divergences to occur on a daily basis.
i am very long. if i take shots i want to buy producers. i dont think the explorers time is upon us. wave 3of 3 yes it is time.
we are in a bottoming process and then the wave of recognition
w/increased volatility imo, tight stops ensure that you will take small loses . tight stops are marks. its the right idea, but not for this volatility.
its what is going to make this market difficult/impossible to trade. more and more of the public is waking up to the screwing they are taking and going to take. ows is representation of that fact. the anger is simmering . so are the questions. what do i do? the bond holders will be the bag holders. @near 0 % interest rates, that is an easy call, especially after 30+years of bull markets. folks lose sight of these facts because the trends are so long. well the longest cycle is the kondratiefff wave. last time amid the frivolous speculation, the fed called its friends , supporters and colleagues and told them it was ready to embark on a rate increasing phase. joe kennedy et al shorted the market, and the rest is history. i doubt that we will hear anything. charts have to be ones guide. elephants leave footprints. leave yourself lots of room. calling tops and bottoms is not easy. lord knows how many times i got stopped out just before the big move took place. but that was past decades. i am no longer a mark. i am a tick buried on the back of the bull. its only a matter of time for the stabilization of the system takes place. sure it could be a decade. but gold revaluation will occur.
dharma
do you ever wonder who was soaking up the gold being sold by gordon brown et al (other cbs ) @the lows?!??! ever think about that one. now @1700s cbs have vast buy programs on old yeller. who was buying the lows? could be the same guys you detest now for carrying large shorts in silver? who was it? ideas?

[dougie]

you are one wiley fellow:
I ask you what you see, and you say: an important low.
Is it TOO frustrating for you to go into some detail about that? if so, why bother posting?

yes and WHAT do you see?

a possible importante low, why else would I be buying? bueno risk/reward if I am right but it has to rally here in my wave work, if it does not I adios muy rapido. Do you ever make a decision? you have to be one of the most frustating amigos on this board

NO BS

Senor

[dharma]

you are one wiley fellow:
I ask you what you see, and you say: an important low.
Is it TOO frustrating for you to go into some detail about that? if so, why bother posting?

yes and WHAT do you see?

a possible importante low, why else would I be buying? bueno risk/reward if I am right but it has to rally here in my wave work, if it does not I adios muy rapido. Do you ever make a decision? you have to be one of the most frustating amigos on this board

NO BS

Senor

before this breaks into useless pissing match. our battle is w/the markets lets keep it there. if someone posts, they are under no obligation to answer anyone!
just listing a trade is alot of information.
cool it
dharma

[stubaby]

you are one wiley fellow:
I ask you what you see, and you say: an important low.
Is it TOO frustrating for you to go into some detail about that? if so, why bother posting?

yes and WHAT do you see?

a possible importante low, why else would I be buying? bueno risk/reward if I am right but it has to rally here in my wave work, if it does not I adios muy rapido. Do you ever make a decision? you have to be one of the most frustating amigos on this board

NO BS

Senor

before this breaks into useless pissing match. our battle is w/the markets lets keep it there. if someone posts, they are under no obligation to answer anyone!
just listing a trade is alot of information.
cool it
dharma

Amen

[tria]

Just wanted to let the board know and this applies to the overall market which may or may not affect gold (but I think it might)...regarding Dorsey's Point and Figure..the main indicator which is the NYSE BULLISH PERCENT has an intraday reversal from X (demand) to O Supply...meaning a sell is most likely going to come tonight. This should mean by the end of the day we will see that indicator reverse to defense which means supply will be taking over demand. This is triggered when you have a certain percentages of Sells taking over Buys. Even with a rally this wouldn't change unless it was a powerful rally. So, the bottom line would be sell all rallies for now. At this time the indexes are also on sell with a target of 1150 on Spx...again, it doesn't have to go there. A reversal for Spx we would need to see 1270. And even if the indexes reverse back up to buys, doesn't necessarily the mean the main indicator will too. Again, it's a percentage of buys to sells. Also, Dorsey's and Stockcharts PNF can have different signals and patterns. But the one for the SPX which is a bearish triangle breaks is pretty reliable..I think about 75-80%.

One thing I do observe to is Jackie Chan's charts which really are worthwhile to pay attention to when he gets his buys and sells. Unfortunately it concurred with the Point and Figure sell i had on gold for gld,slv, xau, hui yesterday. These can of course be negated. But when I combine it with the Point and Figure and looking at the charts, it seems that the downside could continue if you are trading...fwiw. IT's a matter how you are looking at this which I'm looking to get into the gold/silver trade again..( I have the physical just adding some whip cream and cherry to my piece of cake.. )

TM
I'll try and remember to confirm it tomorrow if I see the NYSE BULLISH percent reverse to O. Also, I have no problems given the information out on a PNF basis, I just dont care to debate it because these are triggers nothing to do with opinions. THanks and good luck.

Thank you tradermama, a confirmation would be appreciated. Having sold my trading positions near $1790 am looking forward to buy back next 2-3 weeks and still expect 2 opportunities, one end Nov-mid Dec and other near mid-end Jan 2012 time wise. Price wise I do not know.
Many times time more important than price.

tria

[tradermama]

Just wanted to let the board know and this applies to the overall market which may or may not affect gold (but I think it might)...regarding Dorsey's Point and Figure..the main indicator which is the NYSE BULLISH PERCENT has an intraday reversal from X (demand) to O Supply...meaning a sell is most likely going to come tonight. This should mean by the end of the day we will see that indicator reverse to defense which means supply will be taking over demand. This is triggered when you have a certain percentages of Sells taking over Buys. Even with a rally this wouldn't change unless it was a powerful rally. So, the bottom line would be sell all rallies for now. At this time the indexes are also on sell with a target of 1150 on Spx...again, it doesn't have to go there. A reversal for Spx we would need to see 1270. And even if the indexes reverse back up to buys, doesn't necessarily the mean the main indicator will too. Again, it's a percentage of buys to sells. Also, Dorsey's and Stockcharts PNF can have different signals and patterns. But the one for the SPX which is a bearish triangle breaks is pretty reliable..I think about 75-80%.

One thing I do observe to is Jackie Chan's charts which really are worthwhile to pay attention to when he gets his buys and sells. Unfortunately it concurred with the Point and Figure sell i had on gold for gld,slv, xau, hui yesterday. These can of course be negated. But when I combine it with the Point and Figure and looking at the charts, it seems that the downside could continue if you are trading...fwiw. IT's a matter how you are looking at this which I'm looking to get into the gold/silver trade again..( I have the physical just adding some whip cream and cherry to my piece of cake.. )

TM
I'll try and remember to confirm it tomorrow if I see the NYSE BULLISH percent reverse to O. Also, I have no problems given the information out on a PNF basis, I just dont care to debate it because these are triggers nothing to do with opinions. THanks and good luck.

Thank you tradermama, a confirmation would be appreciated. Having sold my trading positions near $1790 am looking forward to buy back next 2-3 weeks and still expect 2 opportunities, one end Nov-mid Dec and other near mid-end Jan 2012 time wise. Price wise I do not know.
Many times time more important than price.

tria

Me too!...and congrats on that trade! Btw, the NYSE Bullish Percentt indicator is a trend indicator...the shortest time I've seen which doesn't happen often is 2 weeks but can last months too..however, that doesn't mean you go straight down or straight up..just depends on the buy/sells

Edited by tradermama, 18 November 2011 - 12:39 PM.

[dharma]

setting up for a bounce dharma trading will not be easy and surprises will be more common. the fed, imf, and ecb will be forced to act. the longer the delay, the more the loss of confidence and the larger the dose(monetization) necessary . dharma