285 replies to this topic

[tria]

stubaby: Thank you for your excellent pictorial presentation of your primary count. It is very refreshing to have only two possible counts with well defined parameters that can "lock" shortly. The risk/reward equation is clearly defined. Not much risk in either case. Hope I have the mental strength to go short if your primary proves correct, but I forgot!!! We do not short long term Bull mkts, do we? T.G.F. tria

[tradermama]

These are exactly my thoughts. If near 12/8 is a high and we go sub 1600 soon, then this date is very important.
If it is just a small correction, like near 1700 we should start accelerating soon after.
I have to go with dharma's and trademama's bulish medium term view for the following reasons.
CFTC data is bulish, O.I. has decreased substantially and those who liquidated their Dec futures contracts have not replaced them with Jan Silver or Feb Gold futures. Weak hands who wanted to sell since September, have already done so.
GDX is acting well. Finally, I subscribe to Laundry's T-Theory Forum, and a GLD cycle bottoming before 12/15 has been stated. One can draw a triangle on the daily chart with its apex near 12/19 so any breaking up or down might give us an early warning for either case to be valid. Fortunately only 6 trading days left till the 12/9 "Do or Die" date and so we wait...

tria

Tria,
I'm not sure on this but Silver itself could have gotten as of today a pnf buy at 33.50. The hi so far on Kitco was 33.55 but I'm not sure if that has to happen during the market opening and the pattern...but I do think that counts..I'll know tomorrow when it shows up in my alerts. That said, the pattern for slv isn't a reliable one..more like 50/50 a double top..target is 37 on Dorsey....You would see it higher on Stockcharts. Whenever I get a last sale alert up or down on any of the main etfs..like in this case TNA..which I got one on TNA that is now saying within a couple of days a reversal will happen..this should apply to the market overall..which could also put the pressure on silver and gold till the 8th/9th..but Merriman window starts as early as Tuesday...but not cause them to break down imo. Hence, I'm still thinking a low too. The futures are gapping up and either we sell it or it reverses eod or the down comes Monday for some retracement. If the gap is really large it might not get filled today. This is all orchestrated imo to keep the markets afloat for maybe till mid Dec.
Merckle still pooh poohing a Euro/bond. But next week most likely they might lower their rates..maybe .50 basis pts. Then perhaps that rally begins. THis is my speculation..I dont trade on that..just like Dharma says..pure speculation.
TM

[tria]

These are exactly my thoughts. If near 12/8 is a high and we go sub 1600 soon, then this date is very important.
If it is just a small correction, like near 1700 we should start accelerating soon after.
I have to go with dharma's and trademama's bulish medium term view for the following reasons.
CFTC data is bulish, O.I. has decreased substantially and those who liquidated their Dec futures contracts have not replaced them with Jan Silver or Feb Gold futures. Weak hands who wanted to sell since September, have already done so.
GDX is acting well. Finally, I subscribe to Laundry's T-Theory Forum, and a GLD cycle bottoming before 12/15 has been stated. One can draw a triangle on the daily chart with its apex near 12/19 so any breaking up or down might give us an early warning for either case to be valid. Fortunately only 6 trading days left till the 12/9 "Do or Die" date and so we wait...

tria

Tria,
I'm not sure on this but Silver itself could have gotten as of today a pnf buy at 33.50. The hi so far on Kitco was 33.55 but I'm not sure if that has to happen during the market opening and the pattern...but I do think that counts..I'll know tomorrow when it shows up in my alerts. That said, the pattern for slv isn't a reliable one..more like 50/50 a double top..target is 37 on Dorsey....You would see it higher on Stockcharts. Whenever I get a last sale alert up or down on any of the main etfs..like in this case TNA..which I got one on TNA that is now saying within a couple of days a reversal will happen..this should apply to the market overall..which could also put the pressure on silver and gold till the 8th/9th..but Merriman window starts as early as Tuesday...but not cause them to break down imo. Hence, I'm still thinking a low too. The futures are gapping up and either we sell it or it reverses eod or the down comes Monday for some retracement. If the gap is really large it might not get filled today. This is all orchestrated imo to keep the markets afloat for maybe till mid Dec.
Merckle still pooh poohing a Euro/bond. But next week most likely they might lower their rates..maybe .50 basis pts. Then perhaps that rally begins. THis is my speculation..I dont trade on that..just like Dharma says..pure speculation.
TM

Tks trademama, Gold stopped where it should, I do not trust this move yet and will not add on anything. Stk mkt correction is due very soon, Terry Laundry just posted. More by Sunday.
tria

[tradermama]

These are exactly my thoughts. If near 12/8 is a high and we go sub 1600 soon, then this date is very important.
If it is just a small correction, like near 1700 we should start accelerating soon after.
I have to go with dharma's and trademama's bulish medium term view for the following reasons.
CFTC data is bulish, O.I. has decreased substantially and those who liquidated their Dec futures contracts have not replaced them with Jan Silver or Feb Gold futures. Weak hands who wanted to sell since September, have already done so.
GDX is acting well. Finally, I subscribe to Laundry's T-Theory Forum, and a GLD cycle bottoming before 12/15 has been stated. One can draw a triangle on the daily chart with its apex near 12/19 so any breaking up or down might give us an early warning for either case to be valid. Fortunately only 6 trading days left till the 12/9 "Do or Die" date and so we wait...

tria

Tria,
I'm not sure on this but Silver itself could have gotten as of today a pnf buy at 33.50. The hi so far on Kitco was 33.55 but I'm not sure if that has to happen during the market opening and the pattern...but I do think that counts..I'll know tomorrow when it shows up in my alerts. That said, the pattern for slv isn't a reliable one..more like 50/50 a double top..target is 37 on Dorsey....You would see it higher on Stockcharts. Whenever I get a last sale alert up or down on any of the main etfs..like in this case TNA..which I got one on TNA that is now saying within a couple of days a reversal will happen..this should apply to the market overall..which could also put the pressure on silver and gold till the 8th/9th..but Merriman window starts as early as Tuesday...but not cause them to break down imo. Hence, I'm still thinking a low too. The futures are gapping up and either we sell it or it reverses eod or the down comes Monday for some retracement. If the gap is really large it might not get filled today. This is all orchestrated imo to keep the markets afloat for maybe till mid Dec.
Merckle still pooh poohing a Euro/bond. But next week most likely they might lower their rates..maybe .50 basis pts. Then perhaps that rally begins. THis is my speculation..I dont trade on that..just like Dharma says..pure speculation.
TM

Tks trademama, Gold stopped where it should, I do not trust this move yet and will not add on anything. Stk mkt correction is due very soon, Terry Laundry just posted. More by Sunday.
tria

just curious..how do you like his calls in the forum?..I do listen to his weekend report but lately it seems he's all business trying to get new subs...and holds back more...I have found his cycle calls misleading sometimes too and I saw how they move their 15 week cycle lines to accomondate the calls including changing his 70 week moving average as the bull/bear line to 76..this is mostly Parker's stuff for that..but that doesn't mean there isn't substance here..but I lost a lot of respect for his calls when he got last year really wrong without admitting it..QE2 screwed up a lot of systems..and that is why I"m open minded to anything while the Fed is in the market...but I appreciate your input on what he is saying from the forum now and then too..just curious on those calls. Armstrong if I have this right has us going up into 2014 but that can get inverted which I believe it will but still will be open minded and just use TA as the guide. He also said that if we close end of the year at 12,567 it is major bullish..if we close 11,909 minor bullish..Thanks
TM

[tradermama]

These are exactly my thoughts. If near 12/8 is a high and we go sub 1600 soon, then this date is very important.
If it is just a small correction, like near 1700 we should start accelerating soon after.
I have to go with dharma's and trademama's bulish medium term view for the following reasons.
CFTC data is bulish, O.I. has decreased substantially and those who liquidated their Dec futures contracts have not replaced them with Jan Silver or Feb Gold futures. Weak hands who wanted to sell since September, have already done so.
GDX is acting well. Finally, I subscribe to Laundry's T-Theory Forum, and a GLD cycle bottoming before 12/15 has been stated. One can draw a triangle on the daily chart with its apex near 12/19 so any breaking up or down might give us an early warning for either case to be valid. Fortunately only 6 trading days left till the 12/9 "Do or Die" date and so we wait...

tria

Tria,
I'm not sure on this but Silver itself could have gotten as of today a pnf buy at 33.50. The hi so far on Kitco was 33.55 but I'm not sure if that has to happen during the market opening and the pattern...but I do think that counts..I'll know tomorrow when it shows up in my alerts. That said, the pattern for slv isn't a reliable one..more like 50/50 a double top..target is 37 on Dorsey....You would see it higher on Stockcharts. Whenever I get a last sale alert up or down on any of the main etfs..like in this case TNA..which I got one on TNA that is now saying within a couple of days a reversal will happen..this should apply to the market overall..which could also put the pressure on silver and gold till the 8th/9th..but Merriman window starts as early as Tuesday...but not cause them to break down imo. Hence, I'm still thinking a low too. The futures are gapping up and either we sell it or it reverses eod or the down comes Monday for some retracement. If the gap is really large it might not get filled today. This is all orchestrated imo to keep the markets afloat for maybe till mid Dec.
Merckle still pooh poohing a Euro/bond. But next week most likely they might lower their rates..maybe .50 basis pts. Then perhaps that rally begins. THis is my speculation..I dont trade on that..just like Dharma says..pure speculation.
TM

Tks trademama, Gold stopped where it should, I do not trust this move yet and will not add on anything. Stk mkt correction is due very soon, Terry Laundry just posted. More by Sunday.
tria

just curious..how do you like his calls in the forum?..I do listen to his weekend report but lately it seems he's all business trying to get new subs...and holds back more...I have found his cycle calls misleading sometimes too and I saw how they move their 15 week cycle lines to accomondate the calls including changing his 70 week moving average as the bull/bear line to 76..this is mostly Parker's stuff for that..but that doesn't mean there isn't substance here..but I lost a lot of respect for his calls when he got last year really wrong without admitting it..QE2 screwed up a lot of systems..and that is why I"m open minded to anything while the Fed is in the market...but I appreciate your input on what he is saying from the forum now and then too..just curious on those calls. Armstrong if I have this right has us going up into 2014 but that can get inverted which I believe it will but still will be open minded and just use TA as the guide. He also said that if we close end of the year at 12,567 it is major bullish..if we close 11,909 minor bullish..Thanks
TM

Euro just dropped fast..not confirming this up here imo. Stubably, Could you do your magic for a chart on the Euro with your counts? Thanks
TM

[dharma]

These are exactly my thoughts. If near 12/8 is a high and we go sub 1600 soon, then this date is very important.
If it is just a small correction, like near 1700 we should start accelerating soon after.
I have to go with dharma's and trademama's bulish medium term view for the following reasons.
CFTC data is bulish, O.I. has decreased substantially and those who liquidated their Dec futures contracts have not replaced them with Jan Silver or Feb Gold futures. Weak hands who wanted to sell since September, have already done so.
GDX is acting well. Finally, I subscribe to Laundry's T-Theory Forum, and a GLD cycle bottoming before 12/15 has been stated. One can draw a triangle on the daily chart with its apex near 12/19 so any breaking up or down might give us an early warning for either case to be valid. Fortunately only 6 trading days left till the 12/9 "Do or Die" date and so we wait...

tria

Tria,
I'm not sure on this but Silver itself could have gotten as of today a pnf buy at 33.50. The hi so far on Kitco was 33.55 but I'm not sure if that has to happen during the market opening and the pattern...but I do think that counts..I'll know tomorrow when it shows up in my alerts. That said, the pattern for slv isn't a reliable one..more like 50/50 a double top..target is 37 on Dorsey....You would see it higher on Stockcharts. Whenever I get a last sale alert up or down on any of the main etfs..like in this case TNA..which I got one on TNA that is now saying within a couple of days a reversal will happen..this should apply to the market overall..which could also put the pressure on silver and gold till the 8th/9th..but Merriman window starts as early as Tuesday...but not cause them to break down imo. Hence, I'm still thinking a low too. The futures are gapping up and either we sell it or it reverses eod or the down comes Monday for some retracement. If the gap is really large it might not get filled today. This is all orchestrated imo to keep the markets afloat for maybe till mid Dec.
Merckle still pooh poohing a Euro/bond. But next week most likely they might lower their rates..maybe .50 basis pts. Then perhaps that rally begins. THis is my speculation..I dont trade on that..just like Dharma says..pure speculation.
TM

Tks trademama, Gold stopped where it should, I do not trust this move yet and will not add on anything. Stk mkt correction is due very soon, Terry Laundry just posted. More by Sunday.
tria

just curious..how do you like his calls in the forum?..I do listen to his weekend report but lately it seems he's all business trying to get new subs...and holds back more...I have found his cycle calls misleading sometimes too and I saw how they move their 15 week cycle lines to accomondate the calls including changing his 70 week moving average as the bull/bear line to 76..this is mostly Parker's stuff for that..but that doesn't mean there isn't substance here..but I lost a lot of respect for his calls when he got last year really wrong without admitting it..QE2 screwed up a lot of systems..and that is why I"m open minded to anything while the Fed is in the market...but I appreciate your input on what he is saying from the forum now and then too..just curious on those calls. Armstrong if I have this right has us going up into 2014 but that can get inverted which I believe it will but still will be open minded and just use TA as the guide. He also said that if we close end of the year at 12,567 it is major bullish..if we close 11,909 minor bullish..Thanks
TM

well, folks dont look now, but we have a forum going. lots of thoughts and ideas.
i know that i have said this over the years, but in my opinion it bears repeating. the opjective for the bull is to ride. i saw last time , as a newbie, that the best, the brightest, the most known analysts missed the run . gold went from 400-875 in less than 5 months- and the logic was too fast, too high, needs a correction. etc etc . do not follow anyone. do your own work. i was in a group of friends, also all newbies, that traded. and the guys who missed the move were depressed, they couldnt be consoled. dont let that be you. sure trading could save you pain. keep your eyes and mind set on the trend. this is about sovereign debt. period. its about years of credit expansion.
ask yourself this , when the gmen were selling their gold, below 300 who bought? when the markets fell apart in 08-09 who were the buyers? when we dropped $400 to 1530 who were the buyers? if you get the answer correct, and its one answer then you know who the masters of the game are. charts are paintings. hint- buy when blood is running in the streets!
the gmen have committed alot of resources to propping this whole mess up, they are not about to let it sail into the abyss. announcement comes soon. the 8th anyone. wednesday was the kickoff imo(that humble stuff imho is manure)
i read as much as i can and i do my own work. have we busted 1754 yet. we are working here. lots of work. is there lost momo. are we spinning our wheels. notice the miners have performed fairly well on this leg. gas comes down @the pump and crude has rallied from 75 in 0ct to over 100. they make gas from crude right! hold your core tightly. dont let the lore of avoiding some pain snake you out.
just my 2c
i am like the next guy , i know little. i have just been around for awhile
dharma

[tradermama]

These are exactly my thoughts. If near 12/8 is a high and we go sub 1600 soon, then this date is very important.
If it is just a small correction, like near 1700 we should start accelerating soon after.
I have to go with dharma's and trademama's bulish medium term view for the following reasons.
CFTC data is bulish, O.I. has decreased substantially and those who liquidated their Dec futures contracts have not replaced them with Jan Silver or Feb Gold futures. Weak hands who wanted to sell since September, have already done so.
GDX is acting well. Finally, I subscribe to Laundry's T-Theory Forum, and a GLD cycle bottoming before 12/15 has been stated. One can draw a triangle on the daily chart with its apex near 12/19 so any breaking up or down might give us an early warning for either case to be valid. Fortunately only 6 trading days left till the 12/9 "Do or Die" date and so we wait...

tria

Tria,
I'm not sure on this but Silver itself could have gotten as of today a pnf buy at 33.50. The hi so far on Kitco was 33.55 but I'm not sure if that has to happen during the market opening and the pattern...but I do think that counts..I'll know tomorrow when it shows up in my alerts. That said, the pattern for slv isn't a reliable one..more like 50/50 a double top..target is 37 on Dorsey....You would see it higher on Stockcharts. Whenever I get a last sale alert up or down on any of the main etfs..like in this case TNA..which I got one on TNA that is now saying within a couple of days a reversal will happen..this should apply to the market overall..which could also put the pressure on silver and gold till the 8th/9th..but Merriman window starts as early as Tuesday...but not cause them to break down imo. Hence, I'm still thinking a low too. The futures are gapping up and either we sell it or it reverses eod or the down comes Monday for some retracement. If the gap is really large it might not get filled today. This is all orchestrated imo to keep the markets afloat for maybe till mid Dec.
Merckle still pooh poohing a Euro/bond. But next week most likely they might lower their rates..maybe .50 basis pts. Then perhaps that rally begins. THis is my speculation..I dont trade on that..just like Dharma says..pure speculation.
TM

Tks trademama, Gold stopped where it should, I do not trust this move yet and will not add on anything. Stk mkt correction is due very soon, Terry Laundry just posted. More by Sunday.
tria

just curious..how do you like his calls in the forum?..I do listen to his weekend report but lately it seems he's all business trying to get new subs...and holds back more...I have found his cycle calls misleading sometimes too and I saw how they move their 15 week cycle lines to accomondate the calls including changing his 70 week moving average as the bull/bear line to 76..this is mostly Parker's stuff for that..but that doesn't mean there isn't substance here..but I lost a lot of respect for his calls when he got last year really wrong without admitting it..QE2 screwed up a lot of systems..and that is why I"m open minded to anything while the Fed is in the market...but I appreciate your input on what he is saying from the forum now and then too..just curious on those calls. Armstrong if I have this right has us going up into 2014 but that can get inverted which I believe it will but still will be open minded and just use TA as the guide. He also said that if we close end of the year at 12,567 it is major bullish..if we close 11,909 minor bullish..Thanks
TM

well, folks dont look now, but we have a forum going. lots of thoughts and ideas.
i know that i have said this over the years, but in my opinion it bears repeating. the opjective for the bull is to ride. i saw last time , as a newbie, that the best, the brightest, the most known analysts missed the run . gold went from 400-875 in less than 5 months- and the logic was too fast, too high, needs a correction. etc etc . do not follow anyone. do your own work. i was in a group of friends, also all newbies, that traded. and the guys who missed the move were depressed, they couldnt be consoled. dont let that be you. sure trading could save you pain. keep your eyes and mind set on the trend. this is about sovereign debt. period. its about years of credit expansion.
ask yourself this , when the gmen were selling their gold, below 300 who bought? when the markets fell apart in 08-09 who were the buyers? when we dropped $400 to 1530 who were the buyers? if you get the answer correct, and its one answer then you know who the masters of the game are. charts are paintings. hint- buy when blood is running in the streets!
the gmen have committed alot of resources to propping this whole mess up, they are not about to let it sail into the abyss. announcement comes soon. the 8th anyone. wednesday was the kickoff imo(that humble stuff imho is manure)
i read as much as i can and i do my own work. have we busted 1754 yet. we are working here. lots of work. is there lost momo. are we spinning our wheels. notice the miners have performed fairly well on this leg. gas comes down @the pump and crude has rallied from 75 in 0ct to over 100. they make gas from crude right! hold your core tightly. dont let the lore of avoiding some pain snake you out.
just my 2c
i am like the next guy , i know little. i have just been around for awhile
dharma

I too do my own due diligence. Whenever I say I listen or been following someone, means I take it or leave it..the only reason I would take something if I have learned something new which we all can imo......I like to read arguments on both sides..I try not to have a mindset...just trade what I see and again, I have physical too..all this chatter is for some added icing to the cake by using swing trades for agq/and gld...sometimes someone can say something that makes me look at something I might have missed. This is why I like forums but I only post here because we seem to be more civil here..and I do mean that sincerely... I have no ego and that is what I see on the FF board..when people are just sharing info..again take it or leave it is what I do. So, I'm watching how this unfolds and am accumulating as I see fit...Happy Trading
TM

[dharma]

stubaby- possible h&s bottom forming on aem??? working on the right shoulder now, looks like it could go a bit lower here dharma

[stubaby]

These are exactly my thoughts. If near 12/8 is a high and we go sub 1600 soon, then this date is very important.
If it is just a small correction, like near 1700 we should start accelerating soon after.
I have to go with dharma's and trademama's bulish medium term view for the following reasons.
CFTC data is bulish, O.I. has decreased substantially and those who liquidated their Dec futures contracts have not replaced them with Jan Silver or Feb Gold futures. Weak hands who wanted to sell since September, have already done so.
GDX is acting well. Finally, I subscribe to Laundry's T-Theory Forum, and a GLD cycle bottoming before 12/15 has been stated. One can draw a triangle on the daily chart with its apex near 12/19 so any breaking up or down might give us an early warning for either case to be valid. Fortunately only 6 trading days left till the 12/9 "Do or Die" date and so we wait...

tria

Tria,
I'm not sure on this but Silver itself could have gotten as of today a pnf buy at 33.50. The hi so far on Kitco was 33.55 but I'm not sure if that has to happen during the market opening and the pattern...but I do think that counts..I'll know tomorrow when it shows up in my alerts. That said, the pattern for slv isn't a reliable one..more like 50/50 a double top..target is 37 on Dorsey....You would see it higher on Stockcharts. Whenever I get a last sale alert up or down on any of the main etfs..like in this case TNA..which I got one on TNA that is now saying within a couple of days a reversal will happen..this should apply to the market overall..which could also put the pressure on silver and gold till the 8th/9th..but Merriman window starts as early as Tuesday...but not cause them to break down imo. Hence, I'm still thinking a low too. The futures are gapping up and either we sell it or it reverses eod or the down comes Monday for some retracement. If the gap is really large it might not get filled today. This is all orchestrated imo to keep the markets afloat for maybe till mid Dec.
Merckle still pooh poohing a Euro/bond. But next week most likely they might lower their rates..maybe .50 basis pts. Then perhaps that rally begins. THis is my speculation..I dont trade on that..just like Dharma says..pure speculation.
TM

Tks trademama, Gold stopped where it should, I do not trust this move yet and will not add on anything. Stk mkt correction is due very soon, Terry Laundry just posted. More by Sunday.
tria

just curious..how do you like his calls in the forum?..I do listen to his weekend report but lately it seems he's all business trying to get new subs...and holds back more...I have found his cycle calls misleading sometimes too and I saw how they move their 15 week cycle lines to accomondate the calls including changing his 70 week moving average as the bull/bear line to 76..this is mostly Parker's stuff for that..but that doesn't mean there isn't substance here..but I lost a lot of respect for his calls when he got last year really wrong without admitting it..QE2 screwed up a lot of systems..and that is why I"m open minded to anything while the Fed is in the market...but I appreciate your input on what he is saying from the forum now and then too..just curious on those calls. Armstrong if I have this right has us going up into 2014 but that can get inverted which I believe it will but still will be open minded and just use TA as the guide. He also said that if we close end of the year at 12,567 it is major bullish..if we close 11,909 minor bullish..Thanks
TM

Euro just dropped fast..not confirming this up here imo. Stubably, Could you do your magic for a chart on the Euro with your counts? Thanks
TM

TM:

I follow, but don't chart the EW - looks like we are in Wave a down towards 116 here (off of 2008 high we have a-b-c followed by X wave at this year's high to be followed by another a-b-c towards 96 sometime in 2013 and currently in a of this 2nd triple)

Something I read earlier today:

"All that matters is this - No matter what happens to the Euro, its collapse threatens a collapse of the worlds banking system therefore it will not be allowed to collapse, which means the worlds reserve currency will be printed in the trillions to mop up the flood of euro's in exchange for dollars thus ensuring there is no collapse in the euro for which we have just had a small taste of what would come to pass, its simple - print dollars and all other currencies for euros which means all currencies collapse together but at a shallower pace with the mainstream press pumping out propaganda that the Euro has actually risen when in fact they have all fallen sharply together, now you tell me if all this will not be highly inflationary?

The worlds central banks can and do print trillions as and when they chose to. There is no limit. This is the only real lesson they learned from the Great Depression, so instead of having a Deflationary Depression, we are having an Inflationary Depression."

stubaby

[stubaby]

stubaby- possible h&s bottom forming on aem??? working on the right shoulder now, looks like it could go a bit lower here
dharma

dharma:

Possibly on the shorter time frames - it did break-out of secondary downtrend line and is now retesting - bottom is forming:

http://stockcharts.c...2913&r=7563.png

stubaby