112 replies to this topic

[dharma]

got neg divergences on the charts from 10 minutes to hourly

might not mean a thing

in bear markets as we have seen for the past year and more those near term divergences can be very negative, in bull markets they are often meaningless and are often simply short term pauses in the trend but cause many to exit because they don't "believe yet", and hence the GRANDE Q becomes are we still in a bear market or has that changed? No one can really know yet, we all have to make our best guesses

Senor

agree
the backdrop is changing significantly and that will help to put a floor under the pms.
dharma

[johngeorge]

dharma

What you posted regarding water shortages and food production is going to lead to severe consequences for folks on limited incomes. As it now stands people in the US enjoy some of the lowest food costs in the world. With the recent water shortages in California, and the Southwest including Texas, that will soon change. The economy is in the dumps, living wage jobs more difficult to find, cuts in food stamps along with reductions and outright cuts in unemployment benefits, we are looking at a very bad outcome. Throw in the cold weather when folks are paying more and more for fuel to heat their homes, it does not leave much money left over for rising health care costs, gasoline, etc. More credit card and loan defaults on the way? I certainly believe that is possible.

As an aside: The dismal trail of dead bankers continues. As The Journal Star reports, a successful Lincoln businessman and member of a prominent local family died last week. Former National Bank of Commerce CEO James Stuart Jr. was found dead in Scottsdale, Ariz., the morning of Feb. 19. A family spokesman did not say what caused the death. This brings the total of banker deaths in recent weeks to 9 as Stuart is sadly survived by three sons and four daughters.

[dougie]

I agree. I also think that throwing the bears a bone here soon (in a week or so) might not be a bad thing to encourage further skepticsim

got neg divergences on the charts from 10 minutes to hourly

might not mean a thing

in bear markets as we have seen for the past year and more those near term divergences can be very negative, in bull markets they are often meaningless and are often simply short term pauses in the trend but cause many to exit because they don't "believe yet", and hence the GRANDE Q becomes are we still in a bear market or has that changed? No one can really know yet, we all have to make our best guesses

Senor

[dharma]

dharma

What you posted regarding water shortages and food production is going to lead to severe consequences for folks on limited incomes. As it now stands people in the US enjoy some of the lowest food costs in the world. With the recent water shortages in California, and the Southwest including Texas, that will soon change. The economy is in the dumps, living wage jobs more difficult to find, cuts in food stamps along with reductions and outright cuts in unemployment benefits, we are looking at a very bad outcome. Throw in the cold weather when folks are paying more and more for fuel to heat their homes, it does not leave much money left over for rising health care costs, gasoline, etc. More credit card and loan defaults on the way? I certainly believe that is possible.

As an aside: The dismal trail of dead bankers continues. As The Journal Star reports, a successful Lincoln businessman and member of a prominent local family died last week. Former National Bank of Commerce CEO James Stuart Jr. was found dead in Scottsdale, Ariz., the morning of Feb. 19. A family spokesman did not say what caused the death. This brings the total of banker deaths in recent weeks to 9 as Stuart is sadly survived by three sons and four daughters.

this situation of rising food costs caused arab spring.
gold went down almost the entire year of 13 , it is pretty compressed w/a double bottom. anything is possible.
6+ ng price is also putting a squeeze on folks to heat their homes. its not a pretty environment.
dharma.
i dont think this guy is a super gann trader. but i appreciate his perspective =the 60yr cycle
received this today
http://www.ganngloba...c7d3fd708d3a25c

[Lee48]

Number one gold timer Ike Iossif is looking for a bottom in the dollar and a top in gold in the next few wks.
Have to watch how much gold pulls back. Dollar rally may last 2 or 3 months this time. Shorter than the last few dollar rallies in the past 3 yrs.

http://www.wallstree...w.com/node/9588

[dharma]

today is options expiration my concern is this mars goes retrograde on the 1st of march, high correlation to reversals in gold it is possible that we are finishing a wave here. caution is the order of the day dharma

[senorBS]

today is options expiration
my concern is this
mars goes retrograde on the 1st of march, high correlation to reversals in gold
it is possible that we are finishing a wave here.
caution is the order of the day
dharma

miners not confirming but ya have to be careful of day to day differences, interesting near term juncture here as either gold and silver extend a good bit higher or we see a more significant correction. I have no strong feelings at this time.

PureBS

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 25 February 2014 - 03:10 PM.

[dharma]

anyone notice that china has doubled its gold purchases year over year. buying 2x as much in january. gold buying in the far east is what needs watching. they buy tonnes, not grams or ounces.
the correction has started. i lightened up a tad into the close. i think this is a short term correction. w/thursday or friday producing the low and then we run again, then a larger correction. dharma put that turbon away.
the key is it looks like many commodities have bottomed/bottoming. it is always reassuring to see the whole complex move up, of course there will be some that stay in bear markets. but the grains, coffee, sugar, nat gas, crude oil seem to have made bottoming patterns and are moving up
it all takes time
i do price cycle work, yesterday we hit the end of this particular price cycle , now we back off 1325 or 1309 , then i think we try and break into the next higher price cycle
dharma
i am not impressed w/this guy as a trader, but his long term historical perspective i appreciate
https://www.facebook...28898737142196/
it could very well be the 60 year cycle has turned up

Edited by dharma, 26 February 2014 - 11:08 AM.

[stubaby]

anyone notice that china has doubled its gold purchases year over year. buying 2x as much in january. gold buying in the far east is what needs watching. they buy tonnes, not grams or ounces.
the correction has started. i lightened up a tad into the close. i think this is a short term correction. w/thursday or friday producing the low and then we run again, then a larger correction. dharma put that turbon away.
the key is it looks like many commodities have bottomed/bottoming. it is always reassuring to see the whole complex move up, of course there will be some that stay in bear markets. but the grains, coffee, sugar, nat gas, crude oil seem to have made bottoming patterns and are moving up
it all takes time
i do price cycle work, yesterday we hit the end of this particular price cycle , now we back off 1325 or 1309 , then i think we try and break into the next higher price cycle
dharma
i am not impressed w/this guy as a trader, but his long term historical perspective i appreciate
https://www.facebook...28898737142196/
it could very well be the 60 year cycle has turned up

dharma:

Yea - I agree with your outlook ST - I am "nibbling" here and will continue tomorrow.

stubaby

[senorBS]

anyone notice that china has doubled its gold purchases year over year. buying 2x as much in january. gold buying in the far east is what needs watching. they buy tonnes, not grams or ounces.
the correction has started. i lightened up a tad into the close. i think this is a short term correction. w/thursday or friday producing the low and then we run again, then a larger correction. dharma put that turbon away.
the key is it looks like many commodities have bottomed/bottoming. it is always reassuring to see the whole complex move up, of course there will be some that stay in bear markets. but the grains, coffee, sugar, nat gas, crude oil seem to have made bottoming patterns and are moving up
it all takes time
i do price cycle work, yesterday we hit the end of this particular price cycle , now we back off 1325 or 1309 , then i think we try and break into the next higher price cycle
dharma
i am not impressed w/this guy as a trader, but his long term historical perspective i appreciate
https://www.facebook...28898737142196/
it could very well be the 60 year cycle has turned up

agree and for now I am targeting HUI 232-235 for a possible bottom

BSing away

Senor