115 replies to this topic

[dougie]

we will know shortly IMO

new lows on the way here for Silver: might see 14 or 15 on this move imo
silver stocks are going to get creamed and are getting creamed

I really think you are big time wrong on this but we will see

Senor

[dharma]

i want to start by stepping way back
gold double bottomed in june/december. the neckline is @1434
the initial rally off the december lows went to 1392 about 200 gain over an 11 week period. over the last 2weeks we lost 50% of that. the market struggled to get over the 1358 getting into the next higher price cycle . we were overbought for some time. now the market is oversold into support. the nature of this rally is key. if we can get back over 1358 then an assault on higher highs then 1392 will take place if not we will have more correction. i am in the bullish camp, so i will not go through all the bearish possibilities as well. i think the 1180 lows hold. if the rally does not take out 1358 then we will see the lows we have here broken. wave 2 s can be very deep 1229 is good support. as is 1213 . if that goes 1198 .
the indian elections take place on the 7th chidambaram is talking about lowering the taxes on gold imports. during the elections banks do not give people money because of fear of bribery. so , during the election and the sorting out period the demand will dry up. simple as that. and the elections some times need a coalition to form so a winner can be declared its not a simple affair. dont look for support from the elections to develop immediately , its a process more often then not.
if the rupee has begun a new trend against the dollar that can also help gold buying http://www.graceland...014apr1rup1.png
this is a new development in the silver market. one worth watching http://www.resourcei...ssive-technolog
we are now into the grand cardinal cross. i expect the effects of this planetary set up to be felt for some time to come. the influence could start tomorrow till friday
i do think the gold situation takes some time to sort out=it may be range bound for a period of time in here. i will only be buying weakness.
mars went retrograde on march 1st . retrograde mars has not been kind to gold in the past. the retrograde will be over may 20th it may take that long to sort the whole situation out . dont be impatient. i do think over time here cost push inflation raises its head. food stuffs are all in very young up trends. there is drought in california and brazil. 2 major growing areas in the west. shinzo abe and kuroda the boj head are bent on producing only a little inflation in japan. as the 3rd largest econoy in the world this will be an export.
in the 4 phase cycle of markets , i believe we are in phase 1 or very very early in phase 2. this part of the cycle in either event takes time to develop.. the fact that there are many bears confirms my thinking. as long as the 1180 lows hold this is my thought time! it will take some time. until the market proves my thought wrong, this is exactly where i stand. i trade a little . i position mostly
dharma

[senorBS]

possible 1-2-3 down short term from 1288, perhaps a 5th wave here to modest new lows in gold and we "might" have a decent trading bottom, however I am not bottom fishing this as what I think is a fifth wave could morph into a third , would rather buy after a 5 up if we get it Senor

Edited by senorBS, 01 April 2014 - 10:46 AM.

[dharma]

gld new lows, miners not following. no new lows for gdx or gdxj dharma

[jacksterr]

We may just be consolidating here, waiting for the jobs report on Friday, along with seeing how the dollar responds to the report...

[senorBS]

gold made a new low by pennies so far, could be a fifth wave in latter stages and GDX again diverging, watchin Senor

[dharma]

folks shorting it today. they know the banks are limiting cash that indians can have. the 7th is the election until then it could be fun and games. shorts trying to press the market. there are divergences. oversold. dharma

[Russ]

Porter Stansberry Research says April 24 "China will reveal secret financial weapon built to bankrupt millions of Americans". They say China plans to displace the USA as the world's reserve currency and that is why they are accumulating large amounts of Gold.

http://pro.stansberr...OILQ3YY/?h=true

[senorBS]

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Edited by senorBS, 02 April 2014 - 09:17 AM.

[dharma]

thanks russ , spent my morning listening to porter stansberry, he is a bit of a sensationalist. i was thinking , on my walk , yesterday. the east is buying all the gold that is being produced , the west is manipulating the price . something will give? when? then last night i read marty. i am @odds w/his analysis. by the way , back in his day, he got into trouble w/his short term trading. he started to bleed $$$. he only has his reputation @stake. i have a position in the market. yesterday gold was down, and yet the feeling and psychology was suicidal in the sector. today pop! the biggie this week is the jobs report. stay tuned, it will gyrate. lots of events this month. there will be surprises. the indian election results may not be known for a while. got my position , hands in my pockets. dharma by the way stansberry's date is exactly on the grand cross, it is when it is complete. it may be a bunch of bunk, but i found his choice of dates interesting