98 replies to this topic

[dharma]

velocity of money chart http://www.graceland...5jun22fred1.png
note it is lower now than the 74 recession which was the worst since the great depression
not shown on the chart is it is lower now than during the great depression
0 interest rates are not promoting money velocity, in fact they are having the opposite effect.
rising rates will be more profitable for the banksters to lend. they have held onto the qe windfall and not been lending it out.
we are in the time band for a low june/july will gold switch direction. have enough bulls thrown in the towel?
4yrs of bear has changed things. many miners are selling for moose pasture
dharma

[dharma]

speaking of miners selling for moose pasture . here is brent cook who has been bearish on the miners for years now, thinking its time to start accumulating . i couldnt agree more. http://etfdb.com/typ...-pacific/china/
we are in a time band where lots of things should reverse directions. not only gold/silver. i have tried to note the infrastructure build out of gold markets world wide. shanghai will soon begin its price fix. note that western bankers cannot participate in the price fix. over there they execute guys for transgressions. here u pay a fine and move on. enriching the govt for your fines and average joes , get the fuzzy end of the stick. i also want to note the outsized gains in the chinese markets note the fxi , we are in crash season, it is possible something will happen world wide. opening the next round of qe or whatever to stabilize the situation. and the fat cats will have stored away the chestnuts.
not in a hurry but, building a position on weakness. when i first got involved in elliott wave i cant begin to remember all the times i waited for 5 fo5 of 5 , which didnt come
i remember in 81and 84 trying to buy long term bonds only to find dealers having 0 inventory . and that was 15-16% guaranteed on your money w/no appreciation. . of course now there is lots of moose pasture available
dharma

[dharma]

a friend of mine sent me this interview this am jim rogers http://wallstreetwindow.com/node/11759
no making waves. being paient and waiting for miners to show some strength. slowly slowly buying .
lots of catalysts out there. seasonally and cycle wise we are in a window here june/july period
dharma

[dharma]

another simmering pot http://sputniknews.c...=URL_shortening
monsoon in india has been better than forecast= farmers will have more money to buy pms.
unlike here when they get some money, they buy pms
dharma

[dharma]

stock market crashes have not been kind to the pms. that sucking sound brings all asset classes w/it. aug/oct is crash season for the broad market that being said. we are in the time frame of a low and bottom in gold/silver. there could be an event which turns the market up and puts in a bottom? w/that said. i am thinking we are close to a bottom in the metals and a top in the broad market. how it plays out remains to be seen. i do see a low in the fall as well. but , from here i am thinking its a higher low. all in the fullness of time. marty is sticking to his big bang in october 15. well maybe his giant ego fills all of cyberspace. miners need to lead out of this hole, which has taken the usual suspects and turned them into one more decline and its over. to me i see the psychology is the same as all the previous gold bottoms. so far the missing key element is price has to turn up! waiting dharma

[dharma]

the so called commercials put on a big short http://news.goldseek.../1435346988.php
dharma

[dharma]

well the commercials substantially increased their short position. not a good omen
i just have to wonder w/greece in the news daily, headlines might the banksters be setting up for a deal and good news which sends the broad market on an upward tear, and the spin , even though more debt will be created, for gold is bearish because a deal has been reached meanwhile the ukraine is set to default, only a year or so after the banksters took over, and scarcely a word!
as roger points out the miners are cheaper now than when gold was selling @250 http://www.safehaven...e-huigold-ratio
sentiment
the HGNSI was unchanged on Thursday at -3.3%...
MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus was unchanged Friday at 35%
DSI rose a point to 19%
dharma

[dharma]

right before the open gold got beat back greece is front and center, i cant help but think somehow this all gets worked out -greece remains in the euro . next. friday is jobs report day. expect that to be portrayed as glowing. every thing is wonderful every year indias population increases more than the size of greece. in the scheme of things greece is tiny. in the time frame for a low a bottom. lets see what happens sentiment is way bearish watching the beat up miners , waiting for them to lead. dharma

[dharma]

well now the governor of puerto rico truthfully said "we cant pay" so , add them to the long list of countries who drank the debt kool aid
i expect the gold market to be weak into the jobs #s. seems to be a pattern. then the #s come out and gold rallies
seasonal chart
http://seasonalchart...ssics_gold.html
hadik is looking for july lows based on the 17 yr cycle among other cycles that come in in july www.17YearCycle.com
we will see.
dharma

[dharma]

Indian billionaire Rajesh Mehta is on the verge of buying Newmont's stake in Swiss mega-refiner Valcambi. Rajesh built himself up from zero, selling gold jewellery door-to-door as a kid. w/over a billion people and economy that is to grow @7%+ india along w/china will be the center for gold buying . it is in their dna. shanghai is scheduled to start trading july 10th, when that happens , over time the center for gold will shift from ny and london i read marty this morning gloomy, hopefully its not true, but it could be . apparently , according to him greece has been threatened w/sanctions etc, in an all out economic war. there are so many irons in the fire. w/puerto rico, spain portugal , italy all broke lugging around a mountain of debt. looking @ july as a bottom. lets see what it brings dharma