143 replies to this topic

[tradesurfer]

That was me looking for 41.61 on the xau I have been studying the long term mining indices closely in recent days Certainly I would like to ride NUGT from 2 to 3 dollars to about 10 But obviously the challenge is ringing the bell at the final low The xau appears to be close to completing a massive a b c down There are also large bullis harmonic crabs in both gold price and xau Then we have October 1 Armstrong cycle point September will finish the quarterly candlestick and I can't help thinking we get a fast and sharp drop during the first half of September and then zoom right back up during the second half of September to create a massive quarterly hammer candle So I have a bunch of scenarios bit I do not have full clarity yet on the final low The monthly silver chart may provide the best clue as to is about to bust above the down trend line since 2011.

[goldfungus]

That was me looking for 41.61 on the xau

I have been studying the long term mining indices closely in recent days

Certainly I would like to ride NUGT from 2 to 3 dollars to about 10

But obviously the challenge is ringing the bell at the final low

The xau appears to be close to completing a massive a b c down

There are also large bullis harmonic crabs in both gold price and xau

Then we have October 1 Armstrong cycle point

September will finish the quarterly candlestick and I can't help thinking we get a fast and sharp drop during the first half of September and then zoom right back up during the second half of September to create a massive quarterly hammer candle

So I have a bunch of scenarios bit I do not have full clarity yet on the final low

The monthly silver chart may provide the best clue as to is about to bust above the down trend line since 2011.

Nice call. So close now.

Edited by goldfungus, 03 September 2015 - 10:49 PM.

[tradesurfer]

I gotta say the inverse gravestone hammer candlestick on the GDX and XAU could possibly have nailed the final low in the miners.... that is a rare candlestick lets see if it nails a really important low

[dharma]

its tough in here the banksters hate gold, it forces the powers that be to have honest money. once fiat comes into play, it can assume any value. i am not going to preach to the choir when the 1500s trap door opened wide , indian buyers were saddled w/ a 10% tariff. that tariff is still in play today. india is making great strides to bring its economy into the 21st century. their gdp is soaring. when those tariffs disappear or are reduced , then an enormous buyer will be unleashed. gdx has a double bottom, which is being tested. miners lead up , and they also lead down . gold is almost 50 off its 1070 lows. i am cautious in here. not doing a thing unless the market tips its hand. sure the lows could be in place, the question is not that. the trading graveyards are filled w/traders who called the bottom or top early /late. the question is how do i respond to the price action. right now there are 3 waves up on the chart. so i am waiting for 5 up . if that doesnt happen , then i wait gann said the safest time to buy is on a higher low after an advance. if that occurs then you have a good stopping point. if not then its back to waiting its clear that the economic fantasy is being revealed. savers have been punished for the last 5-6 years w/zero % interest rates. its tough for old guys like me, to get income. w/ markets across the globe experiencing some degree of loss of confidence, the cracks in the economic miracle are on display. yet, despite all the bells of previous lows being sounded, the pms lack traction. gold anticipates, and right now its treading water. w/the fed trapped in hotel california. how they respond to the present slide remains to be seen. i see the pressure on the broad market heading into oct 19(the day of the 87 crash). today is a salvo -jobs #s . then the 17th the fed meets. they have made so much noise about raising rates, how could they not. the imf has told the fed 2x now not to raise rates. folks are talking about qe, premature . but it seems to be the tool of choice dharma

[dharma]

this from marty today: Gold is an example, as it has not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversals so it is not in a protracted bear market long-term, only a reaction measured in years. Yet on the monthly level, our model remains short. This is playing one time level against the next. However, this enables us to say 2011 will be a high with a maximum decline of five years, which is by no means a change in long-term trend. dharma

[dougie]

if this down was a 2 (unlikely) we should now see some real moves

Edited by dougie, 04 September 2015 - 12:38 PM.

[dharma]

after 87 was washed away folks waited , but eventually stormed back into the market then 2k happened . then 2008. confidence is more fragile then folks think. and the whole thing boils down to confidence. then qe 1 -2-3 came . each reviving the patient and returning the world to seemingly normal. now if this decline here has legs and another 10% or so is loped off prices. the patient will need a more significant dose of printed money to revive. and this will be a world wide phenomenon w/china, japan, europe , england , and the usa all ponying up the super injection. from that point forward fiat will even lose more pp. it will be game on. 16 will be hadiks golden year. gold will sniff it out and be on the upswing before the injection.
yes, the fed has painted itself into hotel california. no matter what it does @this point it will have big consequences. raising rates will have big consequences also. all the bond holders will be looking @ losses. and the bond holders finance this whole thing. i can understand the need to have a return on your money , but what yields offer doesnt seem to justify the risk, @ least not to me.
dharma
cots
http://news.goldseek.../1441395079.php

Edited by dharma, 04 September 2015 - 02:47 PM.

[johngeorge]

The COT not looking so good for gold. Here is another not looking so good for gold:

Jordan Roy-Byrne Posted Friday, 4 September 2015 Precious Metals Final Flush Beginning

[dharma]

by the way commercials are always short gold , there was 1 that is 1 time they were not short gold and that was in the 70s . you have to take the cot #s in comparison to other times when gold has either topped or bottomed. the commercials take the other side of the large and small specs
i am still of the mind gold is making a bottom. but, over the last 4 yrs there have been a # of these instances where it looked like a bottom. so i remain cautious. and w/ the broad market extremely volatile and searching for a bottom , that sucking sound in the past has taken everything w/it. caution is the order of the time and day
w/ the 10% tariffs in place in india, legitimate biz have taken to smuggling http://gracelandupda.../2015sep7i1.png
also china continues w/ its well publicized gold buying program http://gracelandupda...5sep7china1.png they are lightening up on their fiat reserves. i expect some point in the future, india will begin an official gold buying program. for now their market is in the hands of the mafia.
w/money velocity @ or below great depression #s and w/t bonds making the right shoulder of a h&s top pattern, i think she raises rates its the most talked about rate hike. bonds have had a 34 yr(fib #) year run. its a time for caution. hadik and marty have called this market extremely accurately. their opinions have now diverged. last i heard from hadik, he is still bullish! i am leaning towards the diagonal having ended, but i want more proof. and that is yet to appear
dharma

[dharma]

nothing new , nothing new has been revealed. the world is in the grips of deflation. the dollar remains firm gold is under pressure. i dont think the decline in the broad market has fully expressed itself,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,yet. dharma