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The Bearish "Tell".


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 13 September 2022 - 09:25 AM

It's pretty obvious somebody knew the CPI data was going to disappoint. And that shouldn't surprise.

The useful takeaway is that there was a "tell" in the VIX yesterday, as I mentioned. Up 4.74% in a dandy rally. I'm not sure I'd want to trade those with the futures, but a speculation in the options looks like a useful strategy.

VIXDaily09-12-22.jpg


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#2 MikeyG

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Posted 13 September 2022 - 09:37 AM

The might have to kill the economy to rid this inflation. Fair value is SPX 3800 with rates this high.



#3 fib_1618

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Posted 13 September 2022 - 09:47 AM

They might have to kill DESTROY the economy to rid this inflation.

 

Fair value is SPX 3800 with rates this high.


Excuse my taking liberties in slightly changing your opinion.

 

And, yes, 3800 is currently the minimal downside price target…10 year yield to 4%.
 

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#4 pdx5

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Posted 13 September 2022 - 10:48 AM

The might have to kill the economy to rid this inflation. Fair value is SPX 3800 with rates this high.

 

The rumors of economy's death are highly exaggerated. Lets look at some facts.

 

>> Corporations can't find enough workers! There is surplus of jobs over available workers to fill them

 

>> Unemployent is non-exitent. Anyone who wants to work can find 3 jobs.

 

>> Biden just passed $20,000 cash gift to students with loans. Those Billions will be spent, not stashed into a saving accounts.

 

>> The inflation reduction act (???) is another spending splurge by the government. This is like giving more cocaine to a person already high.

 

>> Cash levels in corporate coffers are bulging at the seems. 

 

>> Consumers are spending with credit cards. Those are not yet maxxed out.

 

Another 3/4% rate hike by FED will only affect stock prices for a few days. Everthing else keeps rolling along.


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#5 fib_1618

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Posted 13 September 2022 - 12:31 PM

 

The might have to kill the economy to rid this inflation. Fair value is SPX 3800 with rates this high.

 

Another 3/4% rate hike by FED will only affect stock prices for a few days. Everything else keeps rolling along.


Famous last words...all rear view mirror stuff that has no bearing on the future direction of stock prices.

 

Fib


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Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#6 pdx5

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Posted 13 September 2022 - 12:58 PM

What will Fib say if stocks drop 10% from here? (in 60 days or less)

I always want to include my time frame. Otherwise the FF is not worth the paper it is written on.

Lastly, the money bills passed are not past, it is future spending coming up.


Edited by pdx5, 13 September 2022 - 01:00 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#7 K Wave

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Posted 13 September 2022 - 01:40 PM

What will Fib say if stocks drop 10% from here? (in 60 days or less)

I always want to include my time frame. Otherwise the FF is not worth the paper it is written on.

Lastly, the money bills passed are not past, it is future spending coming up.

Here is one for ya...Once it takes out 154 pivot, wildly overvalued, 2% growth rate Apple is going to hit that 200 month MA within next couple years.

I'll leave to you to figure out where SP might be at that point....

 

AAPL.png


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#8 K Wave

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Posted 13 September 2022 - 01:43 PM

Think it can't happen?

 

nflx.png

 

fb.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#9 fib_1618

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Posted 13 September 2022 - 03:06 PM

What will Fib say if stocks drop 10% from here? (in 60 days or less)

I always want to include my time frame. Otherwise the FF is not worth the paper it is written on.

Lastly, the money bills passed are not past, it is future spending coming up.


I make my market opinions ABSOLUTELY crystal clear for ALL time frames over on the Market Analysis Board…take some of your precious time and review the wealth of technical information that’s provided there each week at NO CHARGE!

As always, questions are encouraged if you’re having any issues understanding the concept.

 

Fib


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Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#10 Rogerdodger

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Posted 13 September 2022 - 03:24 PM

kill the economy to rid this inflation

 

Inflation soared to 13% in Phoenix last month, a record for any US city in data going back 20 years and more than twice as high as San Francisco.

 


Edited by Rogerdodger, 13 September 2022 - 03:25 PM.