562 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

This one is bullish but I do not think the next 100 ES points will be UP... could be, that is almost 3% from current levels at 3700 as I write this post.

 

@hmeisler

 

 

Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?

•  

  UP

  54.2%
•  

  DOWN

  45.8%

5,411 votes·Final results

[dTraderB]

This UP VOLUME indicator seems quite useful; click the link below; sorry, no time to post the image now

 

 

Helene Meisler

@hmeisler

·

Sep 24

 

Volume Indicator

https://twitter.com/...658635393241090

 

 

 

 

 

 

This one is bullish but I do not think the next 100 ES points will be UP... could be, that is almost 3% from current levels at 3700 as I write this post.

 

@hmeisler

 

 

Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?

•  

  UP

  54.2%
•  

  DOWN

  45.8%

5,411 votes·Final results

 

 

 

 

 

 

Helene Meisler

@hmeisler

·

Sep 24

 

Volume Indicator

[dTraderB]

New USD/YEN SHORT position at 143.743

will add more above 144, 144.5 ..

 

Still think the Brit Pound will drop another % or 2 but just do not have the time to trade more than one currency

[dTraderB]

THE POUND FALLS AS MUCH AS 1.1% TO $1.0740, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1985.

New USD/YEN SHORT position at 143.743

will add more above 144, 144.5 ..

 

Still think the Brit Pound will drop another % or 2 but just do not have the time to trade more than one currency

[dTraderB]

GOLDMAN lowering target to such a low level? That's VERY BEARISH! 

And, expect others to lower targets  soon, but not this low. 

 

 Goldman Sachs, for example, started the year with a 5100 year-end target for the S&P 500. In May, Goldman reduced their year-end target to 4300.  And just this past week they lowered their year-end target to 3600.

 

 

 

THE POUND FALLS AS MUCH AS 1.1% TO $1.0740, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1985.

New USD/YEN SHORT position at 143.743

will add more above 144, 144.5 ..

 

Still think the Brit Pound will drop another % or 2 but just do not have the time to trade more than one currency

 

[dTraderB]

I do not follow the VALUE LINE INDEX but I am hearing more about it recenlty:

 

But when it comes to a bigger picture outlook, and putting in the work before we even open up the app, well that's where the Value Line Indexes come into play.

Here we're looking at the Value Line Geometric Index, which gives us a good look at what the "median" stock is doing in the market.

Look at all that resistance going back to 1998.

Where prices stopped going up in '98 is exactly where they stopped going up in '07 and in '14, which were 2 more important peaks in equities.

Well here we are back to all those former resistance levels. Will it turn in to support,  completing this correction? Or will it collapse and turn into a disaster for this market?

 

This is a Monthly Chart, and this candle has yet to be completed. 

 

 

 

GOLDMAN lowering target to such a low level? That's VERY BEARISH! 

And, expect others to lower targets  soon, but not this low. 

 

 Goldman Sachs, for example, started the year with a 5100 year-end target for the S&P 500. In May, Goldman reduced their year-end target to 4300.  And just this past week they lowered their year-end target to 3600.

 

 

 

THE POUND FALLS AS MUCH AS 1.1% TO $1.0740, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1985.

New USD/YEN SHORT position at 143.743

will add more above 144, 144.5 ..

 

Still think the Brit Pound will drop another % or 2 but just do not have the time to trade more than one currency

 

 

[dTraderB]

Suddenly, NQ plunges (well, not a lot!) a few points .... then more... my best trade today... in 3 hours.

 

NO more PIVOT talk. Not for the next 4 to 6 weeks, then PIVOT talks resumes for the YEAR END rally.

 

Fed Hikes 75bps, No Pivot & A Hard Landing

It was a tough week for equities as the Fed hiked 75bps and signaled that “no pivot” in policy is coming. Such disappointed the markets in desperate need of some “encouraging news,” but none was to be had. Furthermore, the Fed slashed economic growth drastically, upped their unemployment projections, and kept inflation expectations elevated through 2023.

Markets broke through support and tested this year’s lows on Friday as selling was broad-based. As we will discuss momentarily, the market is now figuring out the rising risk of a policy mistake. On Friday, Goldman Sachs slashed their year-end price targets for the S&P 500 index. The “hard landing” scenario was most important.

In a recession, we forecast earnings will fall and the yield gap will widen, pushing the index to a trough of 3150. Our economists assign a 35% probability of recession in the next 12 months and note that any recession would likely be mild given the lack of major financial imbalances in the economy. As we previously outlined, in the event of a moderate recession, our top-down model indicates EPS would fall by 11% to $200.

For context, a 34% peak-to-trough decline in the S&P 500 index during a recession would only be slightly worse than the historical average of 30%. We see two risks that would create a more dramatic sell-off in equities during a recession. First, if inflation concerns were to limit the degree of monetary or fiscal policy support and interest rates did not fall, it could lead to even lower valuations or even larger economic and earnings growth declines than we model. Second, concentrated sector weakness, such as Information Technology in 2001 and Financials in 2008, could lead to an even sharper earnings and price decline.

 

https://realinvestme...ed-hikes-75bps/

[K Wave]

VIX above 32...

 

BTC not broken yet...but that may be dead ahead...

[K Wave]

Gold still hangin' on by a pinky around 1640...

[K Wave]

Pretty much all about gettin' AAPL and TSLA to bust wide open inside their daily crash windows now...

 

Until that happens, bull not fully dead.

 

So far...real close, but not lightin' up the cigars just yet...