37 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

From last night newsletter

https://open.substac...&utm_medium=web

 

 

[EntropyModel]

We are getting that runup this AM - this shd be last one and look for end to this range next couple of sessions resolving down as said.

 

If anything I say isn't clear, please ask me to clarify - I try make the calls clear and unambiguous whether right or wrong.

[blustar]

I agree

[12SPX]

I'm still thinking about it cause of what Oldsmobile is saying, guess we'll see!! 

[EntropyModel]

This is bearish here - LQ is redlining (see chart link below) whilst price cannot move up - that is usually distribution... odds increasing of a sell Algo kicking in next few

hours.

 

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc0NDg2NF8yMDc3MzI2Mg

Edited by EntropyModel, 04 January 2023 - 03:21 PM.

[da_cheif]

This is bearish here - LQ is redlining (see chart link below) whilst price cannot move up - that is usually distribution... odds increasing of a sell Algo kicking in next few

hours.

 

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc0NDg2NF8yMDc3MzI2Mg

ent.....how does sentiment play in your analysis....just askin

[EntropyModel]

 

This is bearish here - LQ is redlining (see chart link below) whilst price cannot move up - that is usually distribution... odds increasing of a sell Algo kicking in next few

hours.

 

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc0NDg2NF8yMDc3MzI2Mg

ent.....how does sentiment play in your analysis....just askin

 

 

That's a good question Cheif. it depends what we mean by Sentiment.  I separate polling from 'real money' sentiment. So I look at AAII, NAIIM  and couple other polls  but I don't put the polls in the model, its

 part of the 'subjective' read. The real money sentiment IS in the model - I look at put/calls, Rydex and my own proprietary signal called 'imbalance' and have clear buy/sell signals for these.

 

In the model - sentiment is right up there weighted the most important, along with what I called Liquidity, which we could say is also a sentiment read, but sentiment of computer ALGO's so its seem strange to call

it that as implies emotions ..obviously the ALGO's are just following programs but I suppose it really is sorta sentiment. Essentially human sentiment and ALGO 'sentiment' swing from one extreme to another, and

in that sense its the same. 

 

The Weighting in the model sorta is like this from MOST to Least for Intermediate Term (several weeks)

 - Sentiment (real money) + Liquidity 

 - Volatility

 - Internals

 - Price Model

 - Waves & Price Pattern setups

 

The short term model is different - doesn't include 'sentiment' as such though does have ALGO LQ even more dominant, and a few others things - really short term is very different.

[da_cheif]

thanks

[EntropyModel]

Short Term -

 - we also now have my favourite ST signal sell ...

 - plus two nested mini H&S patterns marked on right side with break of 3790 being first trigger of setup 

 

I've marked up recent buy/sells to make this clearer (outside, inside of bands and cross of two lines)

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc0ODU1MV8yMDc3ODUzMw

[Rogerdodger]

WSJ:
Insiders typically have greater insight on the business outlook, and the fact that they haven’t been scooping up their own stocks as the market tumbles suggests they believe that it might not have bottomed just yet
If insiders remain on the sidelines, that could portend more trouble ahead for the stock market, strategists say.
“The thing that stands out right now is the lack of buying (their own stock) even though prices have come down so much,” said Nejat Seyhun, a finance professor at the University of Michigan who studies corporate-insider activity. “That’s kind of a warning.”
https://www.wsj.com/...und-11672889061

 

 

Friday/Monday might be interesting...

 

KITCO: "Traders and investors are now focusing on Friday morning’s U.S. December employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 200,000, following a rise of 263,000 in the November report."

 

News Bites

U.S. weekly jobless claims drop to 204,000

 

Jobs way up...with inflation way up?

https://www.dailydot...ollars-an-hour/

McDonald’s worker says manager gave employees $50 an hour to get them to work during staff shortage 'That's like 400 for an 8-hour shift.'

Edited by Rogerdodger, 05 January 2023 - 01:17 PM.