Member
Posted 17 March 2023 - 04:50 PM
EntropyModel, ask and thou shalt receive. Below are moving averages of TSP Bull-Bear sentiment (3 week) and AAII Bull-Bear sentiment (4 week) which I track. Bollinger band process used to find top and bottom extremes since the range varies over time.
Regards,
Douglas
Can you show 2007-2009 in the same format?
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
Member
Posted 18 March 2023 - 03:15 AM
K Wave, I live to serve, below please see '07 bear market plots as you requested.
Regards,
Douglas
Member
Posted 18 March 2023 - 02:40 PM
K Wave, I live to serve, below please see '07 bear market plots as you requested.
Regards,
Douglas
Thanks, as I suspected...this bear could be just getting warmed up...See May 2008
And then there is The Kiss of Death...
The Naz is the ONLY thing holding the ship together right now..........
Wrong Way Cramer....
https://twitter.com/...414154063122434
"Short this nasdaq and invite me to your funeral"
Watch Apple 153 next week is all I can say.....
Edited by K Wave, 18 March 2023 - 02:41 PM.
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
Member
Posted 18 March 2023 - 03:13 PM
And just checked latest, just AAPL and MSFT now nearly 25% of NDX...
So if Cramer's nearly perfect track record is to continue...watch Apple 153....
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
Member
Posted 18 March 2023 - 03:52 PM
Thank you for posting Cramer's tweet
Member
Posted 18 March 2023 - 07:31 PM
FYI - as I suspected above, TSP back to neutral on the small bounce this week - so the 2-3 week average isn't that bearish.
03/17/23 33% 54%
03/10/23 17% 72%
03/03/23 35% 50%
Edited by EntropyModel, 18 March 2023 - 07:31 PM.
Member
Posted 18 March 2023 - 07:52 PM
Remember that the current very poor Consumer Sentiment isn't necessarily the same as a trader's sentiment.
"The report noted that sentiment (Consumer Sentiment) could actually be a lot worse as the survey didn't incorporate the growing U.S. banking crisis, which started last week after U.S. regulators took over Silicon Valley Bank"
https://schrts.co/cGFUUwbN (Not sure if this chart has been updated yet.)
Edited by Rogerdodger, 18 March 2023 - 07:59 PM.
Member
Posted 18 March 2023 - 08:18 PM
Yes it can. Instead of panicking retail was buying. Doesnt seem like they are really bearish... maybe well trained overly optimistic. Insiders selling. Commercials wildly long treasury's and short the euro.
https://www.marketwa...-vanda-c58d0279
Member
Posted 18 March 2023 - 10:46 PM
Yes it can. Instead of panicking retail was buying. Doesnt seem like they are really bearish... maybe well trained overly optimistic. Insiders selling. Commercials wildly long treasury's and short the euro.
Yep exactly Skott, this is what my data showed as I said - in polls they say 'im so bearish' but in reality they keep BTFD ..and have never sold since start of the bear market, bar a few weeks.
Member
Posted 19 March 2023 - 11:39 AM
I can now add - that a site ..who uses sentiment data for trading .com ... which I have followed for a decade or more -
- suddenly only find signals/studies which are bullish all of 2022
- was thus wrong most of 2022 except stopped clock by default from Oct
- hasn't called one drop
Is now super bullish again here.
Take that as anecdotal - but
- its also influential as per my reflexivity effect comments( my last video above) ..
- has occurred nowhere near the IT lows each time
The most surprising thing to me , is the site used to do good data analysis, but the work produced since 2022 and this latest is utter **** and worthless, but shows
a massive constant bullish bias as is pervasive no matter polls or brief moments - its been relentless bullishness.
FYI - I did mention my KEy Sentiment signals are still bearish, and they have better win/loss record than anything ..so i'll be following them not based on polls but real $ as said.
