90 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

My question is, did Jerome succeed in killing papa equity bear with his experimental inflation injection, or did he only wound/weaken him?

 

 

 

I don't know steadyquest, mainly because I don' t understand the question LOL

[steadyquest]

[EntropyModel]

TODAY looks OMINOUS on the IT here, so many things I didn't like ..

 - went up when we should have gone down, not just on patterns, but the old 'monday save/bad news' routine to sucker Short term traders as usual - been mO of 'bs' ALGO's for long time

 - If its a RETEST - into the FED and uP POST FED ... we ought to have retested TODAY ...with + DIV ....now there isn't time ...and 

-  Rally has gone 5 days which is too long to be  normal retest ..given the cycle up of breadth etc 

 - NAMO has NEG DIV today, that's very bad given 

 - we have clear rising wedges on hourly/Daily on SPX & comp ..and corrective internals 

 - internals are horrible ...after '5 day bounce' ..that's  not normal by long chalk ...smells like support that won't last 

 - and all this with falling dollar support, but that looks like a corrective and strong move up in dollar soon ...if so, bonds will also turn back up holding TNX key 32...very  important to watch

post FED and next week.

 

But Mark! there is so much bearishness - oh please! fact free b.s.! . CBOE ran 0.7X all day and closed 0.83 one of lower reading of the year...AHEAD of the FED = same old 'slope of hope ' the ' FED will save us' ..as I went over in posts.

 

Can we bounce higher, longer - sure , especially in FED week with 'lets run the ST trader stops games)  & wthl obvious 'financial system collapsing' backstop .... but this to me is a HORRIBLE bounce in every way and will eventually at LEAST RETEST as I said, but now I strongly  lean to a break below 3750 area and toward 3600 unless something changes drastically, especially internals and sentiment.

Edited by EntropyModel, 20 March 2023 - 07:38 PM.

[EntropyModel]

More horrible ALGO 'fishing' here...  Retail are going 'all in' on my data on FED will save us yet again ( see this last few meetings) ..they won't but short term ALGO can churn the market.

[EntropyModel]

I'm talking about the Intermediate (IT) timeframe above ...bUT -

  FYI - my Short Term model is now moved into 'high risk' of being long zone ...at least until some sort of pullback ... FED can override but

very rarely is that the case unless they truly do something unexpected.

Edited by EntropyModel, 21 March 2023 - 12:24 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Seems to me Retail is losing its mind here, or just get programmed by financial Matrix ..'cos its just crazy to keep betting on the 'Big FED SAve' every meeting ...but here they go again - I guess stopped clock and all that ...but its not 'trading/investing' but pure gambling

[EntropyModel]

Nothing says 'fear of the FED' like rallying for 2 days and covering all shorts into EVERY FED MEETING for last 4 months LOL

 

As say I - the tape is clear - the only real fear is FOMO on the 'everyone knows FED Save' ... that is NOT a 'wall of worry' but a 'slope of hope',

and sure, they throw the occasional bone out ..and euphoric up moves ...but bottom line is its a bear market that most are in denial about, I mean, they

 literally keep calling it a bull market :-)

Edited by EntropyModel, 21 March 2023 - 03:20 PM.

[EntropyModel]

PREDICTING FED DAY is almost impossible ...but given

 - the tape

 - the Short term model extreme's building

 - the overall market position

 

IF EVER there was a setup for a VERy FAST MASSIVE DOWNMOVE ...this would be it ...not predicting, just saying.

 

It would 'make sense' because Retail would be totally left holding the bag and too afraid to  get out, or short such a move from here.

 

BUT - there are many other possibilies

 - a euphoric up move /blow off again similar to last one at 4200 ..then slow roll over ..etc

 - OR just alot of up/down fast ...and longer churn

 

WHATEVER - I am the most confident I have been in long time that the  next major/large  IT move is DOWN through 3750 to 3600  .in next month or two .....AND also, that the financial system is headed for a much FASTER and WORSE outcome than I thought in 2023 ...as per my Jan forecast ...I believe we are in massive trouble with no way out coupled with retail and large 'dumb money' in total denial and ignorance of this .... a recipe for a historic disaster ...one I hope to ride , obviously.

 

Right now - I remain cash ..apart from Positional Shrot from early 2022 SPY ... but looking for next big move here, not interested in short term or swing at moment as too much risk both sides and  ALGO Game playing to screw traders ..... I'll let market show its hand a bit more for a better risk/reward and win/loss setup ... but just want to be clear on my mindset here.

Edited by EntropyModel, 21 March 2023 - 04:04 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Retail covered literally all shorts now before this meeting - total FEAR of the FED PIVOT!

 

As I say - we can still get a euphoric move up but I cannot see it lasting like last one given this, and the technical setup. - I cd be wrong ... but 

the potential downside looks much larger than the upside on my signals.

[EntropyModel]

I think the most important 'tell' here is

- Do the markets operate 'normally' post decision - today, tomorrow OR

- do we see something truly 'out of left field' - which might indicate a change.

 

 

Let see if this setup gets busted on the FED X-games

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODAzMzY2OF8yMTE3OTQ5OA

Edited by EntropyModel, 22 March 2023 - 12:43 PM.