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My latest Model forecast/Technical Analysis


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#21 EntropyModel

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 02:13 PM

So - 

 - FED said nothing good - no pivot - raise 25bps on system which claims it needed immediate cut LOL or will 'collapse'..well,  I guess it will collapse then? .NOT stopping QT as I've said they can't/won't

 - What did people expect ? 'oh, we're cutting 50bps stopping QT and new QE ' that's basically what they want - but were never going to get.

 

Market reaction - muted spike up ..look very much like exhaustion of 'BTFD ALGO fishing' - we are as said due a 'pullback' on ST model around here ...

 

Next few days will be a more informational tell on IT and bigger picture as FED day is emotional/reactive and X-game b.s. often.

 

I AM  a bit surprised by sharp drop in DOLLAR - but ..lets see where it goes into end of week ..i'd be surprised if it doesn't bounce.


Edited by EntropyModel, 22 March 2023 - 02:15 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#22 EntropyModel

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 02:53 PM

REVERSAL setup here as gone over -

- ST Model sell zone

- Failure to go up off BTFD frenzy into FED

- Price tech failure

If last 10 minutes is down or even flat..then high odds.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#23 EntropyModel

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 03:02 PM

BOOM!

NOW - tomorrow is very important ..is this a BULL TRAP? ...if so, we gap n drop through 3900 area key support ..if not...more work to be done.

 

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODAzNDI3OF8yMTE4MDMyNA

 

Note to self- NEVER EVER trade against this signal


Edited by EntropyModel, 22 March 2023 - 03:07 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#24 EntropyModel

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 05:55 PM

FYI - summations are still as i've gone over(video) putting high odds still of that Retest ... today was 8th/9th day off SPX 3800 low with new bounce high ...but summations stil dropping, on backtest ..especially in

a bear market or just plain market NOT in super strong bull phase  ....that leads to weakness.


Edited by EntropyModel, 22 March 2023 - 05:55 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#25 EntropyModel

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 06:05 PM

HEADS UP - 

OH - I SEE A FRACTAL finally on move from OCT!

It what I called a 'reductive Fractal termination' pattern ...quite rare! this give a great road maps.

When I have time I'll try to show/explain - these are much more complex than normal 'wave patterns' .

So basically - we are REPEATING a FRACTAL ..and each loop of the fractal is getting WEAKER on the UPSIDE and strong on the downside .... this implies a sort of 'exhaustion' pattern.

FOr NOW - because I don't have time

- SPXCASH 3900 is MASSIVE

- A break of that would indicate the fractal is terminating to DOWNSIDE ...once it does, this sort of pattern and on size it is .would be very signficant and mean a multi month down trend.

- A HOLD of 3900 area...and we still have a UP CYCLE repeating ....and what I've done/shown many times is we can guage that now ...so it would need a hold in that area tomorrow, then strong upside move friday to hold the 'fractal repeat'

 

* this is my absolute favourite pattern to find because it gives such a precise TIME and PRICE ROAD MAP - to help with setting up trading positions ...they are also very rare but tend to work out almost every time i've found them ..to amazement often ..but its just math as I like to say ...hopefully will be case here...this one looks really good! ..also obvious now I see it, but really tough one to spot.


Edited by EntropyModel, 22 March 2023 - 06:14 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#26 EntropyModel

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 06:24 PM

HEADS UP - 

OH - I SEE A FRACTAL finally on move from OCT!

It what I called a 'reductive Fractal termination' pattern ...quite rare! this give a great road maps.

When I have time I'll try to show/explain - these are much more complex than normal 'wave patterns' .

So basically - we are REPEATING a FRACTAL ..and each loop of the fractal is getting WEAKER on the UPSIDE and strong on the downside .... this implies a sort of 'exhaustion' pattern.

FOr NOW - because I don't have time

- SPXCASH 3900 is MASSIVE

- A break of that would indicate the fractal is terminating to DOWNSIDE ...once it does, this sort of pattern and on size it is .would be very signficant and mean a multi month down trend.

- A HOLD of 3900 area...and we still have a UP CYCLE repeating ....and what I've done/shown many times is we can guage that now ...so it would need a hold in that area tomorrow, then strong upside move friday to hold the 'fractal repeat'

 

* this is my absolute favourite pattern to find because it gives such a precise TIME and PRICE ROAD MAP - to help with setting up trading positions ...they are also very rare but tend to work out almost every time i've found them ..to amazement often ..but its just math as I like to say ...hopefully will be case here...this one looks really good! ..also obvious now I see it, but really tough one to spot.

 

So tomorrow and fri will be very important to position me on this setup ..especially since FED now out the way and the volatility/X-games that generates.

 

IDEALLY 

 - we drop tomorrow toward 3910 area ..that is natural target on ST model signal and now road map ......we could bounce first ..It doesn't have to be 'straight down' ..

 - IF we get that ...or into fri ...that is next big decision point as comment just above.

 

I am VERY interest to see tomorrow, and weekly CLOSE fri .. and also moves in dollar, bonds etc ...we are getting to the END ZONE of the DECISION WINDOW on IT pattern here.

, its needs alot PATIENCE on the IT for setups like this ....as endless Swings up/down very frustrating if your waiting for bigger/longer move since OCt ....but I do now see signs we

getting close as said to end zone here, or at most 1-2 more weeks.


Edited by EntropyModel, 22 March 2023 - 06:26 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#27 skott

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Posted 22 March 2023 - 09:36 PM

you said a mouthful. I like fractals but not expert. Haven't seen many lately. I look forward to seeing this.



#28 K Wave

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Posted 23 March 2023 - 08:25 AM

HEADS UP - 

OH - I SEE A FRACTAL finally on move from OCT!

It what I called a 'reductive Fractal termination' pattern ...quite rare! this give a great road maps.

When I have time I'll try to show/explain - these are much more complex than normal 'wave patterns' .

So basically - we are REPEATING a FRACTAL ..and each loop of the fractal is getting WEAKER on the UPSIDE and strong on the downside .... this implies a sort of 'exhaustion' pattern.

FOr NOW - because I don't have time

- SPXCASH 3900 is MASSIVE

- A break of that would indicate the fractal is terminating to DOWNSIDE ...once it does, this sort of pattern and on size it is .would be very signficant and mean a multi month down trend.

- A HOLD of 3900 area...and we still have a UP CYCLE repeating ....and what I've done/shown many times is we can guage that now ...so it would need a hold in that area tomorrow, then strong upside move friday to hold the 'fractal repeat'

 

* this is my absolute favourite pattern to find because it gives such a precise TIME and PRICE ROAD MAP - to help with setting up trading positions ...they are also very rare but tend to work out almost every time i've found them ..to amazement often ..but its just math as I like to say ...hopefully will be case here...this one looks really good! ..also obvious now I see it, but really tough one to spot.

REITs already in full 1930s mode, with the late 1930 break just happening now...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#29 skott

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Posted 23 March 2023 - 10:28 AM

 

HEADS UP - 

OH - I SEE A FRACTAL finally on move from OCT!

It what I called a 'reductive Fractal termination' pattern ...quite rare! this give a great road maps.

When I have time I'll try to show/explain - these are much more complex than normal 'wave patterns' .

So basically - we are REPEATING a FRACTAL ..and each loop of the fractal is getting WEAKER on the UPSIDE and strong on the downside .... this implies a sort of 'exhaustion' pattern.

FOr NOW - because I don't have time

- SPXCASH 3900 is MASSIVE

- A break of that would indicate the fractal is terminating to DOWNSIDE ...once it does, this sort of pattern and on size it is .would be very signficant and mean a multi month down trend.

- A HOLD of 3900 area...and we still have a UP CYCLE repeating ....and what I've done/shown many times is we can guage that now ...so it would need a hold in that area tomorrow, then strong upside move friday to hold the 'fractal repeat'

 

* this is my absolute favourite pattern to find because it gives such a precise TIME and PRICE ROAD MAP - to help with setting up trading positions ...they are also very rare but tend to work out almost every time i've found them ..to amazement often ..but its just math as I like to say ...hopefully will be case here...this one looks really good! ..also obvious now I see it, but really tough one to spot.

 

So tomorrow and fri will be very important to position me on this setup ..especially since FED now out the way and the volatility/X-games that generates.

 

IDEALLY 

 - we drop tomorrow toward 3910 area ..that is natural target on ST model signal and now road map ......we could bounce first ..It doesn't have to be 'straight down' ..

 - IF we get that ...or into fri ...that is next big decision point as comment just above.

 

I am VERY interest to see tomorrow, and weekly CLOSE fri .. and also moves in dollar, bonds etc ...we are getting to the END ZONE of the DECISION WINDOW on IT pattern here.

, its needs alot PATIENCE on the IT for setups like this ....as endless Swings up/down very frustrating if your waiting for bigger/longer move since OCt ....but I do now see signs we

getting close as said to end zone here, or at most 1-2 more weeks.

 

 

 

Does today fit the fractal or rule it out?



#30 EntropyModel

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Posted 23 March 2023 - 11:18 AM

 

 

HEADS UP - 

OH - I SEE A FRACTAL finally on move from OCT!

It what I called a 'reductive Fractal termination' pattern ...quite rare! this give a great road maps.

When I have time I'll try to show/explain - these are much more complex than normal 'wave patterns' .

So basically - we are REPEATING a FRACTAL ..and each loop of the fractal is getting WEAKER on the UPSIDE and strong on the downside .... this implies a sort of 'exhaustion' pattern.

FOr NOW - because I don't have time

- SPXCASH 3900 is MASSIVE

- A break of that would indicate the fractal is terminating to DOWNSIDE ...once it does, this sort of pattern and on size it is .would be very signficant and mean a multi month down trend.

- A HOLD of 3900 area...and we still have a UP CYCLE repeating ....and what I've done/shown many times is we can guage that now ...so it would need a hold in that area tomorrow, then strong upside move friday to hold the 'fractal repeat'

 

* this is my absolute favourite pattern to find because it gives such a precise TIME and PRICE ROAD MAP - to help with setting up trading positions ...they are also very rare but tend to work out almost every time i've found them ..to amazement often ..but its just math as I like to say ...hopefully will be case here...this one looks really good! ..also obvious now I see it, but really tough one to spot.

 

So tomorrow and fri will be very important to position me on this setup ..especially since FED now out the way and the volatility/X-games that generates.

 

IDEALLY 

 - we drop tomorrow toward 3910 area ..that is natural target on ST model signal and now road map ......we could bounce first ..It doesn't have to be 'straight down' ..

 - IF we get that ...or into fri ...that is next big decision point as comment just above.

 

I am VERY interest to see tomorrow, and weekly CLOSE fri .. and also moves in dollar, bonds etc ...we are getting to the END ZONE of the DECISION WINDOW on IT pattern here.

, its needs alot PATIENCE on the IT for setups like this ....as endless Swings up/down very frustrating if your waiting for bigger/longer move since OCt ....but I do now see signs we

getting close as said to end zone here, or at most 1-2 more weeks.

 

 

 

Does today fit the fractal or rule it out?

 

 

It fits - as held 3910 for move back up - but, it's a bit quick time wise ...so more downside test possible first before another move up.

 

The minor moves will never fit exactly ...and FED meeting may have added bit of noise ...so need things to settle down over next few days to check we are stili tracking!

 

I wd say drop in Dollar is have a bit of effect here - I didn't expect that ..need to see how that plays out here.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB