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Summation Of All Fears


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#1 IYB

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 10:55 AM

Does it matter when the McClellan Summation Index (call it the "MSI") turns downward within a Primary Bear Market?

 

A Century of history suggests that it's the "Summation of all Fears"

 

Good trading all! D


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#2 Rogerdodger

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 11:10 AM

Don, Thanks for the timely post.

The VIX looks ominous here too.

If we can get any bounce here into May, I think it would be misleading and very shortable

VIX.jpg


Edited by Rogerdodger, 25 April 2023 - 11:49 AM.


#3 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 12:19 PM

VIX trend trying to turn up today.


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#4 Rogerdodger

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 12:26 PM

We will se. It's looking more like March 9th &10th.



#5 slupert

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 12:35 PM

We will se. It's looking more like March 9th &10th.

You are referring to the VIX or the market in general? Something specific we can look at? TIA



#6 Rogerdodger

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 12:42 PM

You are referring to the VIX or the market in general? Something specific we can look at? TIA

Chart is based on Market action of the SPX price combined with the inverted VIX

Of course it is always a bit different.

If the April SPX lows around 4070 can hold near here, we might see that projected "T" rally into early May.

WARNING: I've heard it said that if the McClellan Summation Index (as mentioned by Don above) turns up from below zero, but then fails, watch out below.

Or as the INVERTED CHEIF would say: "Watch the ground!"

 

March-9.jpg


Edited by Rogerdodger, 25 April 2023 - 02:07 PM.


#7 IYB

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 02:37 PM

 

WARNING: I've heard it said that if the McClellan Summation Index (as mentioned by Don above) turns up from below zero, but then fails, watch out below.

 

Great hearing from you RD. The MSI actually did that very thing on a mini-scale this week. Closed down Friday, turned up Monday, turned back down today.

 

Overall, of course, after today it'd be awfully hard to argue that the trend of the MSI is anything but down.

 

Very Best, D

 

 

 


“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#8 EntropyModel

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 02:46 PM

Swing top telegraphed on NYMO by negative div again ..and crossing down under 0 ..

VIX also tagged 16/17 key reversal area and moved up  = swing bearish.

 

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODE0NzUwOV8yMTMzNzI0Ng


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#9 fib_1618

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 02:56 PM

Through last Friday with context...throwing in the NASDAQ data as well for comparison.

 

Fib

 

nyad042123.png

 

naad042123.png


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#10 linrom1

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Posted 25 April 2023 - 03:02 PM

Rates down, dollar up = recession.