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Actual Position and Market Opinion Poll for Wednesday 3/2...

26 Mar 2024

Posted by OEXCHAOS in Fearless Forecasters

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If the registration module isn't working for you, you can message us here or at admin@ this site and we'll set you up.

Remember, "Partially Long (or Short)" means less than your normal full position. E.g., If you typically use leverage, then 100% long would be "Partially Long".



Check out past Poll results here: http://www.traders-t...n-poll-archive/



 

  53 Views · 0 Replies

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ECONOMY

26 Mar 2024

Posted by 4caster in Fearless Forecasters

Today some more bad economic news was reported. Drip, drip, drip. Canada Goose, a seller of luxury items

reported that the 2024 earnings estimates on the part of the Broad & Wall folks are too high. The company

reported that it's laying of 17% of its' corporate workforce. The company also reported that its' wholesale

revenues are particularly weak because their dept. store clients are being very careful about adding inventory

because they see a recession coming. Also, the Conference Board reported that its' Confidence Gauge fell

sharply in March to 73.8 from 76.3 in Feb. Historically, when this reading goes below 80 often, but not always,

a recession occurs. However, there was some good news today. Mcdonald's announced that it's going to sell

Krispy Kreme doughnuts at their outlets. I can't wait.

  194 Views · 2 Replies ( Last reply by linrom1 )

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Actual Position and Market Opinion Poll for Tuesday 3/26/24

25 Mar 2024

Posted by OEXCHAOS in Fearless Forecasters

YOU MUST BE REGISTERED AND LOGGED IN TO VOTE.  Log In | Register

If the registration module isn't working for you, you can message us here or at admin@ this site and we'll set you up.

Remember, "Partially Long (or Short)" means less than your normal full position. E.g., If you typically use leverage, then 100% long would be "Partially Long".



Check out past Poll results here: http://www.traders-t...n-poll-archive/



 

  57 Views · 0 Replies

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the Sahm Rule

25 Mar 2024

Posted by 4caster in Fearless Forecasters

The Sahm Rule was created by former FED economist Claudia Sahm. The rule goes like this.

If the current 3 mo. average unemployment rate rises by 0.5% points over the lowest reading

during the past 12 mos. a recession occurs. The lowest reading in the past 12 mos. was 3.4%

in April of 2023. The unemployment rate in Feb. was 3.9%. If the Mar. & April readings are at

least 3.9% the 3 mo. average would be 0.5% above the April reading giving a recession signal.

If the rates in Mar. & April are not above 3.9% all bets are off. When this rule was back-tested

it was shown to have predicted every recession in modern history and, more importantly I think,

it didn't predict a recession that didn't occur. We'll see what happens in the next 2 mos. 

  294 Views · 4 Replies ( Last reply by 4caster )

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nasdaq long term

25 Mar 2024

Posted by andr99 in Fearless Forecasters

20000 by year end, that is my FF. I already wrote it in this forum a few weeks ago, if my memory is right. 

  160 Views · 1 Replies ( Last reply by andr99 )



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