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The Canary in the GOLD Miner(s)

14 Jul 2018

Posted by SemiBizz in Fearless Forecasters

Take a quick look at this chart and we can easily see that the early warning shot came in the XAU ahead of the overall crash at the end of January into February...

 

So watch carefully, if we see gold breaking 1200 and the XAU under 77, that's time to worry...

 

  362 Views · 3 Replies ( Last reply by SemiBizz )

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Gold hit new swing lows this week...

14 Jul 2018

Posted by tsharp in Fearless Forecasters

I heard an interview on an European financial site this past week where the "chief strategist" said gold is still in a bull market and was looking for 1280 to be hit in the near future. 

 

I disagree and suggest gold will hit 1200 before it reaches back up to 1280... twt.

 

GL_240_7.13.18.jpg

 

Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/8haeeyna1/

 

GL_W_7.11.18.jpg

 

Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/7rrm2nzm1/

  136 Views · 0 Replies

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The YIELD CURVE & spectacular Q2 GDP

14 Jul 2018

Posted by dTraderB in Fearless Forecasters

"YIELD CURVE" has been one of the top economic and financial search items in GOOGLE since the last FED meeting and even 

those of us who never paid any attention to this rather esoteric thing are now trying to find out what does it portend for the markets. 

 

Some care not an iota about, bring it along!  Some are worried but not too much. Others are predicting recession and other gloom ^ doom - but realistic - scenarios if the curve does invert. 

 

Also, there is speculation - apparently informed  - about Q2 GDP rising above 4%. Some say it is a one-off spike that heralds the top, others think it is the start of a massive blow-off than can extend for several more quarters, while very few think it is actually important. 

 

Here is a good article on these topics:

US Q2 Growth Set To Accelerate As Trade-War Risk Lurks

The trade war that appears to be escalating may bring headwinds in the second half of the year, but second-quarter US GDP growth remains on track to accelerate, based on several forecasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. The current median projection calls for real GDP growth in Q2 to rise 3.1% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) – a solid improvement over Q1’s modest 2.0% increase. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to publish its initial GDP report for the second-quarter in two weeks (July 27).

Uncertainty about rising trade tensions between the US and China (Europe, too) is a risk factor that could trim economic activity going forward. At the moment, prospects for easing this risk aren’t encouraging. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin this week told Congress that talks with Beijing had “broken down” and the US was essentially waiting for China to offer concessions — a development that some analysts say is unlikely.

Several members of Congress expressed concern about the Trump administration’s plan (or the lack thereof) for trade negotiations. “The administration needs to explain to Congress where this is all headed,” advised Senator Bob Corker, Republican of Tennessee and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  “To my knowledge, not a single person is able to articulate where this is headed, nor what the plans are, nor what the strategy is.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is also cautious about how the process plays out. Although he’s optimistic about the current state of the economy, “We are hearing a rising level of concern about the effects of changes in trade policy,” he said in an interview on American Public Media’s “Marketplace” program, Bloomberg reported. “I think this process that is going on now is a new one. It’s very difficult to predict how it turns out and we’ll just have to see.”

The ambiguity raises questions about the economic outlook in the second half and beyond, but the official numbers for Q2 look set to deliver upbeat results. Some estimates for the second quarter exceed 4.0%. Now-casting.com’s revised assessment, published earlier today, is a strong 4.2% (green bar in chart below). If correct, the US economy will post the fastest growth rate in nearly four years.

Although some estimates call for a lesser gain, the common theme is an expectation that Q2 output will accelerate, perhaps dramatically. The Wall Street Journal’s new survey of economists for July, for instance, reflects a median forecast of 4.1% growth.

gdp.cs_.2018-07-13-1.png

Some analysts, however, worry that the improvement that appears due for Q2 data could mark a top.

“It’s very different being an economy that’s accelerating toward 4 percent and an economy that has a brief surge of 4 percent for one quarter,” Gregory Daco, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said earlier this week.

True, although it’s still unclear which description applies. Meantime, analysts are watching the flattening yield curve and wondering if it’s close to inverting, which would signal elevated recession risk in the months ahead into 2019. The widely followed 10-year-less-2-year rate spread narrowed to a thin 25 basis points yesterday (July 12), an 11-year low.

yld.curve_.13jul2018.png

Data published to date, however, indicates that recession risk is virtually nil. Last month’s business cycle review, for example, revealed that the probability was close to zero that an NBER-defined recession had started or was imminent. The July 8 edition of The US Business Cycle Risk Report reaffirmed the low-risk reading.

The Q2 GDP report that’s due later this month will probably tell a similar story. The question is whether the acceleration in macro momentum can extend into the rest of the year? Given the trade worries, combined with the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike plans that are squeezing the yield curve, the answer is wide open for debate.

When will the next recession strike? Monitor the outlook with a subscription to:
The US Business Cycle Risk Report

 

 

http://www.capitalsp...war-risk-lurks/

  172 Views · 2 Replies ( Last reply by dTraderB )

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SPX WEEKLY POLL

14 Jul 2018

Posted by rjo in Fearless Forecasters
Poll

  133 Views · 0 Replies

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weekly poll?

14 Jul 2018

Posted by Bernie in Fearless Forecasters

weekly poll?

  99 Views · 1 Replies ( Last reply by OEXCHAOS )



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