https://www.marketwa...apse-2018-04-23

A VERY BIG week in earnings starts today and the key data item is not the actual earnings - this should be excellent, if not the stock will be taken to the woodshed - but the guidance and outlook for the next quarter and further down the road. 

Watch those bonds they could start hurtling down with yields rising, they key 10-yr Treasury must stay at or below 3% or else all hell will break loose, with new 2018 equity lows this week.

On the other hand, if that yield could be tamped down, good outlook on earnings, and even a minute lowering of the political instability, stocks can reverse this latest decline and rally all the way to 2760 or higher. 

https://www.cnbc.com...-3-percent.html

My system indicates that there is an elevated risk of a turn or acceleration of the current trend on Monday the 23rd and Thursday the 26th of April.  The Thursday signal is the more extreme of the two, so I guess it should produce the more interesting event.  

Last week's Wednesday the 18th risk window caught a pretty good turn, but yet again it appears that my hope that the intermediate term trend would be resolved in one of last week's risk windows was dead wrong.  This big triangle looking formation is certainly taking its sweet time deciding which way it will break. Most punters I have read on the web seem to be betting on a run for the roses to the upside after possibly a little more weakness.  A serious break down below the lower triangle trend line would seem to be the contrarian position.  

Regards,

Douglas

There were no shorts going into Friday, there almost never is except maybe one or two every once in awhile.

I can guarantee you none of them trade options. Who is taking 40 point drawdowns ? Just ETF position trades.