https://www.cnbc.com...-done-deal.html

An almost meaningless Friday session but SPX still managed to finish slightly up, with the rally losing steam or you can look at the cup is half-full: market is consolidating. 

Still ST & IT long, no matter how slow, boring, dull.... you got to go with the market, not against it.

ST long exit stop @ 2902,7

IT long exit stop @ 2897.3

Crash window still open, not going away until market proves otherwise

More talk of Hindenburg Omen but I really don't believe in that, the charts and sentiment are good enough for me.

Partly short, had a few good crude daytrades on Friday, long VXX, and looking to buy more QQQ puts. 

My risk window trading system indicates that there is an elevated risk of a turn or acceleration of the current trend from Monday the 17th until the morning of Tuesday the 18th.   

The low last week occurred in the opening minutes of Tuesday's trading just outside the Monday risk window. So I guess that's a near miss rather than a complete dud.  Signals with a lot of risk turns are more like a shot gun blast than a rifle bullet.  The jury is still out on the turn down during the Friday risk window which like last week extends into the beginning of this coming week.

The severe sell off I was worried about the last several weeks based on the lousy numbers generated by my system has so far failed to materialize.  The system is just hanging onto its sell signal by its finger nails.  I guess if the system flips to buy this week, I'm gonna have to drag that crow pie out of the frig and eat it feathers and all. 

Speaking of birds, my black swan detector was triggered this past week.  I know that every one of these harbingers that have braved the East River run to Wall Street have been mercilessly blasted out the sky.  I suppose its fate one way or another should be sealed by the close of the risk window in the early days of this week with mort subite being its likely destiny.

Regards,

Douglas

Here’s one just for fun… AVAV was recently in my financial feed, due to a nice rise in price, because the company had been awarded a hefty contract.

AeroVironment has mainly two industries: Agriculture and Defense… and mainly two products: drones and tactical missiles.

Regardless of one’s feelings about the company or products, they seem to have found a good niche and are providing great products and/or service - at least based on what the stock is doing presently.

Both of my lower targets for wave-3 have already been met, there is one additional target above, at 142.55, but as you can see, the price is starting to take on a parabolic curve, so targets may become extended on a regular basis…

The momentum indicator line is not even close to signaling an end, and there is still a wave-3 – wave-5 to go… watching.

Reading the latest on the EU initiating a censure on Hungary (from zero hedge).....they really do want all of the smart money to flow out of the EU and into the US markets.  It's a great advertising job.  Anyone can see how negative the market charts look for the entire zone, even Germany.  I've been using Spain IBEX as a good barometer.  The eventual end of the capital flows migration might end up looking familiar......DJIA shaped just like the Nikkei did going into the 1989 top.  We just can't predict how long it will take or how high it will go.