SO - HEADS UP
I found time to do that BACKTEST of
- COMP & NASI
- COMP in5 5+ swing up and or close to new IT highs at same time
- NYSI Dropping through ZERO line and not moving up
- DATA from 1995 onwards ( I could find more, but less relevant and enough data points)
WOW - results were extremely conclusive
>>EVERY time that occurred - the COMP up move failed at minimum back to the swing up origin, in Most cases alot more.
>> Actually, only 1 time in 28 years, with 1 or 2 data occurance a year did the NYSI actually stop at ZERO and that was during stronger part of 1 bull market ...we already dropped through but I just mention, as dropping well below 0 is FATAL in every case! even in BULL!!
NOW - nothing is 100% ..but that's 100% on data I have ..which means something, basically, and I can see it also BPCOMP and NYAD, and NYUP, and stocks above 50dma etc etc ..INTERNAL have COLLAPSED but 'somehow' Price is hanging on
- CB support? yep ..I'm sure that part of it ...usually won't last ..hence 'eventually' patterns play out.
- also just natural pattern. as It turns out has occurred many times .
BTM LINE - either something unique is going to occur, and the only reason I could see it given the setup anyway is negative ...is a massive continoued CB support ....which I guess, if banks keep collapsing is possible ..but I mean, isn't that going to be MORE bearish in the end? i..e only be temporary bullish ...then bearish^N ....OR banks don't collapse, and support is ended...and that's bearish.
* I also note here the pattern on BPCOMP is very bearish ...it u match to fractal I posted...u see how this 'repeat' is massively weak internally, so how is price still going up? ALGO's my friend ...one ALGO
to rule them all infact ..doesn't care about any TA 'short term' ( a day, a week ) but i've NEVER seen that ALGO not 'normalize' over a 2-3 week period i.e. sell back any inventory its' holding..
Edited by EntropyModel, 24 March 2023 - 05:58 PM.