90 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

SO - HEADS UP

I found time to do that BACKTEST of

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODA0NDc1MF8yMTE5NDUwOQ

 

- COMP & NASI

- COMP in5 5+ swing up and or close to new IT highs at same time

- NYSI Dropping through ZERO line and not moving up

- DATA from 1995 onwards ( I could find more, but less relevant and enough data points)

WOW - results were extremely conclusive

>>EVERY time that occurred - the COMP up move failed at minimum back to the swing up origin, in Most cases alot more.

>> Actually, only 1 time in 28 years, with 1 or 2 data occurance a year did the NYSI actually stop at ZERO and that was during stronger part of 1 bull market ...we already dropped through but I just mention, as dropping well below 0 is FATAL in every case! even in BULL!!

NOW - nothing is 100% ..but that's 100% on data I have ..which means something, basically, and I can see it also BPCOMP and NYAD, and NYUP, and stocks above 50dma etc etc ..INTERNAL have COLLAPSED but 'somehow' Price is hanging on

- CB support? yep ..I'm sure that part of it ...usually won't last ..hence 'eventually' patterns play out.

- also just natural pattern. as It turns out has occurred many times .

BTM LINE - either something unique is going to occur, and the only reason I could see it given the setup anyway is negative ...is a massive continoued CB support ....which I guess, if banks keep collapsing is possible ..but I mean, isn't that going to be MORE bearish in the end? i..e only be temporary bullish ...then bearish^N ....OR banks don't collapse, and support is ended...and that's bearish.

 

* I also note here the pattern on BPCOMP is very bearish ...it u match to fractal I posted...u see how this 'repeat' is massively weak internally, so how is price still going up? ALGO's my friend ...one ALGO

to rule them all infact ..doesn't care about any TA 'short term' ( a day, a week ) but i've NEVER seen that ALGO not 'normalize' over a 2-3 week period i.e. sell back any inventory its' holding..

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODA0NDc1NV8yMTE5NDUxNA

Edited by EntropyModel, 24 March 2023 - 05:58 PM.

[EntropyModel]

I believe whatever is left to the upside comes NEXT WEEK - how much that is, will depend alot on the DOLLAR ...and just how close to EXAUSTION we are ....getting close from data I look at.

After that - as we get into April and time pushes out ... I believe we will continue to weaken ..and market will eventually give way .... is a SLOW PROCESS .

[Rogerdodger]

Thanks for brightening up the weekend. 

[EntropyModel]

Thanks for brightening up the weekend. 

 

Your welcome 

[K Wave]

 

I believe whatever is left to the upside comes NEXT WEEK - how much that is, will depend alot on the DOLLAR ...and just how close to EXAUSTION we are ....getting close from data I look at.

After that - as we get into April and time pushes out ... I believe we will continue to weaken ..and market will eventually give way .... is a SLOW PROCESS .

 

Yup, Ttat is what I am seeing as well. Possible one last blast on the stronger Naz up into 4 hour resistance zone...

 

Now dependent on NDX maintaining altitude over 12700 after the push back above late Friday. Any move back below 12600 now means that last ramp likely not coming, and time to buckle up.

 

Keep your eye on Deutsche Bank CDS, which exploded on Friday...Credit Suisse likely not a one off....

 

And JPM closing below 125 could turn out to be no bueno...although certainly possible it could linger at cliff edge for 4 or 5 more days before breaking away downside....

 

Edited by K Wave, 25 March 2023 - 09:35 AM.

[K Wave]

And Hartnett, one of the better analysts out there, now finally warning about CRE, as I have been shouting from the rooftops was going to be a huge debacle since late 2021.

 

https://biz.crast.ne...e-stock-market/

 

and this is why.....we were offered these loans to lever up when we did our 1031 out of Commiefornia, but wisely elected to stay all cash for now, and are hoping to lever up at distressed prices in 2024-2025

Doing a large 1031 in Early 2022 was NOT fun, and was a VERY eye opening experience as to the complete insanity at the time.

 

Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett said, “CRE loans are being widely viewed as the next shoe in further tightening of lending standards.”

 

“There is $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate debt maturing in the next 3 years. The bulk of this debt was financed when base interest rates were near zero. This debt needs to be refinanced in an environment where rates are high, prices are low, and in a market with low liquidity,” Rechler said in a tweet this week.

 

As monthly momo on REIT heads into negative territory....next couple of years likely to be brutal to the downside.

 

 

 

 

[EntropyModel]

Busy today and tomorrow so less posting as said

 - preparing/doing interview I mentioned 

 - also preparing for 4 day GRand Canyon backpacking trip next week ...it going to be a bit epic ..haven't been able to train much due to 150 inches of snow here in Arizona, a 1 in 100 year winter

and temps still running 20 degree below average all of March! ..Brrrr.   ..so have to drive down off mountain to train, ironically, by climbing back up that mountain LOL .

 

BUt - I see ALOT going on ..

 - TNX held 32 ...impulsed up ..getting really important there next week or so 

 - Dollar same I mentioned ..as DOllar and bonds are sstrongly correlated few realize

 

Stocks - still trackign that fractal ...WEAKLY so far ...end of Oragne into Green this week  ...will be intersting to see IF we drop again her e...then I have a very close match on minor path ..(analog Jan 23+ period).

either way...this is more and more bearish on all my stuff and read unless something changes ...if we get more of this grind up all week ...I am very confident of where this is headed, and frankly,

 its over a cliff in April ... i'm afraid Reality is about to make an appearance on the mass delusion most are living in.  I note..even the briefest pause in selling (as per last 12 days or so) produce INSANE BULLISHNESS ..certainly relative to the obvious meteor now hitting financial system - this is getting CRAZY ..and I believe we ar ein last few weeks of the financial system as we have all known it - Biggest retail bull trap of ALL tIME I believe forming here...logic and reality means it HAS to be until proven wrong..so far everything technically and sentiment is confiriming for me...need AT least a move up above 4150 to even begin to question that...i doubt we get above 4075-4100 area before

next downleg.

Edited by EntropyModel, 27 March 2023 - 02:47 PM.

[skott]

Entropy, as far as you being right and the Feds being able to hold the markets up, we all know this. Bubbles always burst and this is many large bubbles. just a matter of time

Edited by skott, 27 March 2023 - 06:05 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Entropy, as far as you being right and the Feds being able to hold the markets up, we all know this. Bubbles always burst and this is many large bubbles. just a matter of time

 

I was on this board in 2008 - this is almost identical, I tried to make folks here see what was coming, before, and during but literally no one could ..same now, I guess because being permanently bullish works

most of the time, except when these vicious cycles occur, then , they reinflate next one which reinforced the perma bullish mantra's ..'shd have stayed long' etc .sure on very long horizon and not trying to

time markets I guess ...but this time IS different, 2008 was the dress rehersal, 2020 was the 'train the monkey's' bubble ...what's coming is the real deal finally and the system isn't coming back, its about capital preservation from here on out. and not convinced FDIC insured capital is safe from the numbers I read.    

 

The exact timing is all i'm trying to pin down now ...I still favor Oct'ish but I see next big down leg April - May here.

 

I mean no offense, but most people are utterly clueless in terms of understand the financial system( i've tried at length to explain it in video's) ..and that u cannot ignore that context of 'reality', in

market analysis ...as I say, its like ignoring a visible meteor about hit the earth while forecasting the weather as normal - ain't gonna' work.  and hasn't in the past.

 

Could I be wrong, sure, I call it as I see it ..I put my track record last few years against anyones' ...but I accept I can be wrong, well, that something could happen to change this  but for first time

ever I can honestly say I cannot see what could save it ..so that's a first, and not a good one.

 

 

Edited by EntropyModel, 27 March 2023 - 09:30 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Still tracking - on far right of orange box 'decline phase' ..next into Green up energy ... so far much weaker though. ( the reasons the patterns play out is ALGO programming combined with LQ and repetitive behavor)

 

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODA1NjI4MV8yMTIxMTM3Nw